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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #53,281
  • Sep 7, 2012 10:20am Sep 7, 2012 10:20am
Quoting Cgb
The only thinkg that's giving me hope right now that we will not close above 1.2800 is the chart below. 10Y US Bond yield. Yields have dropped like a stone in the last 15 minutes indicating people are buying the US$.
That means they drop the bonds short the dollar and going somewhere save against inflation.
  • #53,282
  • Sep 7, 2012 10:21am Sep 7, 2012 10:21am
Quoting PipTrapper
Yep 55% now

Attachment
Why are you so happy PT?
  • #53,283
  • Sep 7, 2012 10:21am Sep 7, 2012 10:21am
Risk sentiment can change in the blink of an eye.
It has happened before on NFP days.
  • #53,284
  • Sep 7, 2012 10:21am Sep 7, 2012 10:21am
OK Guys... OK...
It was wonderful time to all "fundamnetalists" with all news events like NFP, AGP, ADP, ECB, FED etc etc... whatever...
You had your day guys, so step back...
It's time for "technicals"
Here we go:
1. All USD pairs lost momentum form 1M to 30M charts
2. Many bearish divergence patterns showed up on charts
3. Important FIBO and S/R levels hit...
4. Indecies

It all smell bit bearish to me
Attached Image
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #53,285
  • Sep 7, 2012 10:22am Sep 7, 2012 10:22am
Quoting PipTrapper
Yep 55% now
Rofl mate you are just hillarious.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,286
  • Sep 7, 2012 10:25am Sep 7, 2012 10:25am
Btw Swiss, this is what I listen to when I get my ass kicked.

T

Inserted Video
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,287
  • Sep 7, 2012 10:28am Sep 7, 2012 10:28am
Quoting halkins
OK Guys... OK...
It was wonderful time to all "fundamnetalists" with all news events like NFP, AGP, ADP, ECB, FED etc etc... whatever...
You had your day guys, so step back...
It's time for "technicals"
Here we go:
1. All USD pairs lost momentum form 1M to 30M charts
2. Many bearish divergence patterns showed up on charts
3. Important FIBO and S/R levels hit...
4. Indecies

It all smell bit bearish to me
Attachment
If you have good news am all ears
  • #53,288
  • Sep 7, 2012 10:28am Sep 7, 2012 10:28am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2012-09-07 at 11.27.34 PM.png Size: 122 KB


another bull flag.. possible retracement to 75
  • #53,289
  • Sep 7, 2012 10:29am Sep 7, 2012 10:29am
Quoting Ken A
It's expected but not very happy.
Quoting mka_78
MIXED
ADD: At least gains > losses so far
NFP days are like that only. Now market seems extreme over bought and touched a critical Supply.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: diver.PNG Size: 69 KB
  • #53,290
  • Sep 7, 2012 10:29am Sep 7, 2012 10:29am
Quoting ProfitsOnly
Posted awhile back saying that regardless of the outcome the low of euro must return to norm prices. 1.28 range to 1.33. It will be untill end of 2012. Still, no QE by then in 2012, and it affects nothing.

Maybe 2013, we will see 1.20 levels again.
Agree.
  • #53,291
  • Sep 7, 2012 10:31am Sep 7, 2012 10:31am
Quoting Ken A
If you have good news am all ears
Looks like 180 pips today from H/L is all we're going to get. 1.28 holds. I would assume profit taking into the NY close. But hell, nothing is normal anymore.
  • #53,292
  • Sep 7, 2012 10:31am Sep 7, 2012 10:31am
Quoting Ken A
Why are you so happy PT?
Because we will not get QE3. There may be some policy changes but outright large scale unsterilized purchases will only serve to hurt the US economy even further.

The FOMC members are talking up "Further Action" and the market is interpreting it as "Further Easing". There is a very clear difference between the two.

When Bernanke last testified in front of congress and the senate, he was specifically asked what further tools the Fed had available should the economic conditions deteriorate.

The first item he mentioned (Which is usually the first tool he will use) was "Communication". Second was "Forward Guidance". "Asset Purchases" was third.

So, "Further Action" in the form of "Communication" has already commenced and will be further carried out in the next FOMC rate statement.

The more that "Asset Purchases" is priced in, the more the market is going to be disappointed when they read the rate statement on 13th Spetember.

COMMUNICATION
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: donkeymotivation.gif Size: 100 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #53,293
  • Sep 7, 2012 10:32am Sep 7, 2012 10:32am
Quoting foto
Looks as if it is starting to affect the Dax to the negative.
A collapsing USD just puts more pressure on Europe's ability to earn much needed income.
Ofc. Plus there is that little fact here, that with stronger Euro, a) debt is gaining value because of exchange rate risk b) it dampens European export, which is necessary for growth (lol growth).

Edit: PT, since I didnt get heartattack from my loss, I could get one from that picture of yours. I am laughing so hard .

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,294
  • Sep 7, 2012 10:32am Sep 7, 2012 10:32am
Are we 60% priced in yet on QE3? Call me when its closer to 90% so I can come back to some sanity.
  • #53,295
  • Sep 7, 2012 10:33am Sep 7, 2012 10:33am
Quoting Ken A
Why are you so happy PT?
Why shouldn't he?
Are you in a good health PT? I guess so, that makes everyone happy

I am happy
  • #53,296
  • Sep 7, 2012 10:33am Sep 7, 2012 10:33am
HO PT! have not seen the hammer for many days now, where you are keeping it?
  • #53,297
  • Sep 7, 2012 10:33am Sep 7, 2012 10:33am
Quoting halkins
OK Guys... OK...
It was wonderful time to all "fundamnetalists" with all news events like NFP, AGP, ADP, ECB, FED etc etc... whatever...
You had your day guys, so step back...
It's time for "technicals"
Here we go:
1. All USD pairs lost momentum form 1M to 30M charts
2. Many bearish divergence patterns showed up on charts
3. Important FIBO and S/R levels hit...
4. Indecies

It all smell bit bearish to me
Attachment
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #53,298
  • Sep 7, 2012 10:34am Sep 7, 2012 10:34am
Quoting kinky
Attachment

another bull flag.. possible retracement to 75
Nice drawing looks like an ostrich kinky. 75 is what?
  • #53,299
  • Sep 7, 2012 10:35am Sep 7, 2012 10:35am
Quoting mka_78
Why shouldn't he?
Are you in a good health PT? I guess so, that makes everyone happy

I am happy
I am just concerned about everyone here from post traumatic stress disorder.
  • #53,300
  • Sep 7, 2012 10:36am Sep 7, 2012 10:36am
On my System. The next 1M and 3M MACD needs to fail the up move of breaking high on a retest. If that happens and it cross the 147WMA on my 1M. It will go down. How far.... probably 50 level unless you simply have mass exodus which I don't think will quite happen. Maybe Monday to find a new bottom.
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