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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #53,001
  • Sep 7, 2012 5:15am Sep 7, 2012 5:15am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
1,2775. Not all in, but quite a lot. Not overleveraged, but bigger account than I am used to. Big event for me, I get a chance to enter like this twice per year.

T
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Morning. So, heartattack is very close. Luckily, I ve bought cigarettes, but anyway, I cant watch it.

T
If you're stop is still at 1.2775, you're still far from a heart attack! There's many strong resistance points to cross before you get there.

Best of luck with your 666 (number of the beast) short!
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #53,002
  • Edited 5:28am Sep 7, 2012 5:17am | Edited 5:28am
Will my sell order @ 1.27400 hit?

U/CAD @ 0.97900?



http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...3&d=1346606166

  • #53,003
  • Sep 7, 2012 5:17am Sep 7, 2012 5:17am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sIges...&feature=g-u-u
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XWU1S...ature=g-user-u
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8uJUr...ature=g-user-u
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r5mbO...ature=g-user-u
Thanks
  • #53,004
  • Sep 7, 2012 5:22am Sep 7, 2012 5:22am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Sure mate. And I have raised my exposure to 3% .

T
  • #53,005
  • Sep 7, 2012 5:24am Sep 7, 2012 5:24am
Quoting tinypip
PT - Just read your great morning update. What is your take on the Bond Rate for Greece?

Do you think ECB will now drive the bond rate down below 7% from it's 21.6% right now? Much of the EU negative headlines is around Greece and possible Euro exit. If that duck is put to rest perhaps we will see a period where all eyes are towards the ills of the US as well as upcoming election - hence dollar getting another beating and the EURUSD uptrend continue?
I have no doubt that all EZ sovereign bond yields will come down now... yes even Greece. However, the spreads will still reflect the differences in fiscal policies and economic realities... just not at an extreme level consistent with fear of a Euro collapse.

Once the dust settles and the bond markets have adjusted themselves from a position of extreme fear to a position of economic reality, then we may start to see some sense in all markets where currencies appreciate and depreciate based on the underlying economic factors.

Currently the US economy is really looking like it is ready and willing to recover, and once it starts it will be quick to bounce back. The factors holding back the recovery are twofold. The first and probably most important is the global uncertainty lead by Europe and followed by China. The second and almost equally important is the lame duck congress in Washington. The latter will be addressed soon after the elections. The European factor however is not so easy. Although the ECB has alleviated the fear of a breakup, the economic uncertainties are still very real and a very long way away from a recovery.

In a nutshell, the US will recover sooner and faster than the EU. How that is reflected in the currency market should be pretty obvious.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #53,006
  • Sep 7, 2012 5:30am Sep 7, 2012 5:30am
Quoting Cgb
If you're stop is still at 1.2775, you're still far from a heart attack! There's many strong resistance points to cross before you get there.

Best of luck with your 666 (number of the beast) short!
Thx mate. Yea, it is starting slowly, and I hope it will not grade up, but damn, if I survive this year, I will have nerves of steel. We could very well shoot up.

Imo right not, the most important word, and the word which I still keep thinking of, is unlimited. As PT and foto said here, Spaniards now have to bow if they want to apply. But apply for unlimited. Thats not funny number . But, it is needed to say, that I think that whole this correction are ECB money and if compared with LTRO, where they sent in @ 1 Tril, there still is space up. Is unlimited close to Tril? Dunno. But, what I know, is Mario told at the press conf, ECB is going to go with high transparency with this programme. So right now, it is very important to watch ECB to see, how much they are actually sending in. If they decide to get close to that Tril, I believe I may decide to close it earlier. Otherwise, I hope my scenario will play out.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,007
  • Sep 7, 2012 5:39am Sep 7, 2012 5:39am
if 1.2695 cannot hold, the next stop is 1.2750 area, above that, we are chasing top.

eur is receiving too many strength from eur/jpy, eur/aud, eur/chf . especially the sudden spike from eur/chf.
  • #53,008
  • Sep 7, 2012 5:41am Sep 7, 2012 5:41am
Bull flag on 15M breakout. Calc target on move up is 1.2740, damn that's close to your 1.2735/40 number Swiss!

Haven't seen any barrier talk at the 1.2700 number which you think there would be (round number support). But then again, those lately have proven to be as supportive as wet toilet paper.
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #53,009
  • Sep 7, 2012 5:43am Sep 7, 2012 5:43am
did anyone hear the Obamas speech yesterday ?
How to Win at Sports Betting: DON'T DO IT!
  • #53,010
  • Sep 7, 2012 5:44am Sep 7, 2012 5:44am
The world is beautiful again today...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Indexes.gif Size: 80 KB
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #53,011
  • Sep 7, 2012 5:46am Sep 7, 2012 5:46am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Thx mate. Yea, it is starting slowly, and I hope it will not grade up, but damn, if I survive this year, I will have nerves of steel. We could very well shoot up.

Imo right not, the most important word, and the word which I still keep thinking of, is unlimited. As PT and foto said here, Spaniards now have to bow if they want to apply. But apply for unlimited. Thats not funny number . But, it is needed to say, that I think that whole this correction are ECB money and if compared with LTRO, where they sent in @ 1 Tril, there still...
Hey Tom,

I think you should read the transcripts of the press conference. Pay special attention to the Q/A section as well. The bond buying is not unlimited. It is limited by targets and those targets are the correction of the breakdown of monetary policy transmission. Once they reach the objective, the bond buying stops no matter what the long term yields are. It is only the short dated debt they are targeting. Also there is a mechanism in place to make sure that the sovereigns do not have any incentive to suspend their long term bond auctions in favor of the short term ones.

Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 6 September 2012 - Introductory statement to the press conference with Q&A.pdf   65 KB | 230 downloads


Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 6 September 2012 - Technical features of Outright Monetary Transactions.pdf   26 KB | 651 downloads


Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 6 September 2012 - Measures to preserve collateral availability.pdf   22 KB | 216 downloads
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #53,012
  • Sep 7, 2012 5:48am Sep 7, 2012 5:48am
Hi guys, just a quick question.

Last month's USD Non-farm employment change's actual is 163k vs previous 64k. It says that ACTUAL>Forecast= good for currency. Why did it EUR/USD went up, when it should be bearish? Isn't it good for USD economy?

Now if today's Actual is better than previous, will it dip again or will it rise?

Thanks for the help guys.
  • #53,013
  • Sep 7, 2012 5:51am Sep 7, 2012 5:51am
I am more worried about the NFP and Unemployment Rate either good or bad might lead to EUR rally

If both are bad then QE or other stimulus is on its way
  • #53,014
  • Sep 7, 2012 5:52am Sep 7, 2012 5:52am
Safe Haven flows.
EURO/GBP EURO/CHF EURO/CAD EURO/JPY EURO/USD?

If the latest ECB package is acceptable to the market then these safe haven trades should start to get unwound. Since their origins are the Euro crisis, reversal etc. and so on.

Different type of indicator for money flow confirmation for a change in risk sentiment.

The move in EURO/CHF has been striking, at first it appeared to be SNB inspired but the lack of order supply above the 1.2020 level is a suprise.

There is certainly an all out effort by the C.B.'s to convince the world that the sky will not fall and that economic recovery for real is at hand. Always the possibility they have pulled it off.

added: I remain a skeptic and would like to see a real correction test be allowed to happen in equities and then would come a rally that was sustainable. But without that, this looks more like some form of climax in the making.
  • #53,015
  • Sep 7, 2012 5:54am Sep 7, 2012 5:54am
Quoting tradechamp
Hi guys, just a quick question.

Last month's USD Non-farm employment change's actual is 163k vs previous 64k. It says that ACTUAL>Forecast= good for currency. Why did it EUR/USD went up, when it should be bearish? Isn't it good for USD economy?

Now if today's Actual is better than previous, will it dip again or will it rise?

Thanks for the help guys.
Because that was the first bad month in a while, so it didn't matter that it beat expectations, it just mattered that job recovery was slowing drastically.

PT what is your take? I am no expert on fundamentals...
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #53,016
  • Sep 7, 2012 5:54am Sep 7, 2012 5:54am
Quoting PipTrapper
I have no doubt that all EZ sovereign bond yields will come down now... yes even Greece. However, the spreads will still reflect the differences in fiscal policies and economic realities... just not at an extreme level consistent with fear of a Euro collapse.

Once the dust settles and the bond markets have adjusted themselves from a position of extreme fear to a position of economic reality, then we may start to see some sense in all markets where currencies appreciate and depreciate based on the underlying economic factors.

Currently the...
Thanks. From friends throughout several places in EZ I'm hearing mostly about complaints and hardship. Doing B2B in the US myself I see my customers picking up on many fronts so yes, eventually I would also expect this reflected in the rates. As oHenry said in an earlier post perhaps this lady (EUR) thinks she is "Buzz Light Year". I agree it looks like is right now - hence time to put in some sell orders and take profit on some of the longs. I'm still preserving some longs to be taken around 1.30 to 1.33 area.
  • #53,017
  • Sep 7, 2012 5:55am Sep 7, 2012 5:55am
Quoting tradechamp
Hi guys, just a quick question.

Last month's USD Non-farm employment change's actual is 163k vs previous 64k. It says that ACTUAL>Forecast= good for currency. Why did it EUR/USD went up, when it should be bearish? Isn't it good for USD economy?

Now if today's Actual is better than previous, will it dip again or will it rise?

Thanks for the help guys.
It may not make much difference if the hopium is alive and well, but...


Quoting PipTrapper
Two months ago:
1. The Euro was extremely net short out of fear of a Euro Zone breakup
2. QE3 was only 10-20% priced in

Today:
1. The extreme Euro net short has unwound
2. QE3 is 60% priced in
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #53,018
  • Sep 7, 2012 5:59am Sep 7, 2012 5:59am
Quoting PipTrapper
It may not make much difference if the hopium is alive and well, but...

Bad number may in fact cause buying, QE will become more likely but a good number well expect a lot of whipsawing.. I for one will offer the advice of, if you dont know what the numbers mean stay the hell out cause it could be a choppy one!
  • #53,019
  • Sep 7, 2012 6:01am Sep 7, 2012 6:01am
More about this conspiration trash. If I am right and those were ECB money all the time, LTRO produced 800 pips run for 1 tril. Now we had @ 600 pips run, but, a) ECB wasnt able to finance banks directly b) market was pricing in QE c) market was covering shorts.

ad a) Imo it was incredibly expensive for ECB and they wont be able to sterilize all their operations. Btw, there is still lots of money from LTRO flowing there, which havent been sterilized (And I dont know if ECB plans or is able to do so). So, very roughly shooted, Spanish banks needed to reliquify about 150 Bn to cover the bad assets. So lets say 300 Bn from ECB to other markets would do. But thats only Spain. Add Italian and Portuguese bonds, and we may be close to 500 Bn of ECB stealth QE.

if combined with b) and c), can we make a corerction worth of 800 pips? Sure we can. But b) now faded out, so QE bandwagon is about to crash. Also, there are not that much shorts left to cover, apart from the biggest players.

So, whats left? Imo right now, if ECB wants to continue rally, it has to dig up minimum of 200 more Bn for regular bond refinancing operations. Can they dig up 200 more Bn? Sure they can, this amount will easily fit into "unlimited". Will they dig it up fast? Well, thats what I would like to know. They certainly can. But they already have very high exposure to Spanish banking sector and they publically anounced that conditionality, which will slow them down.

Right now, it seems ECB is all powerfull, Sovereign leaders are only puppets and Lisabon is toilet paper. I hope Rajoy, as well as Germans, will backfire, slowing in flow of money and giving us some breathing space, before we know how much money ECB actually can and will send in.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #53,020
  • Sep 7, 2012 6:04am Sep 7, 2012 6:04am
Okay it's time to start taking guesses for the NFP number.

Just like last time, please post you entry in the following format.

PipTrapper +150K

Thanks and best of luck
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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