EurAnalysis | Page 2646 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD

Similar Threads

EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

Attachments: EurAnalysis
Exit Attachments

EurAnalysis

  • #52,901
  • Sep 6, 2012 12:33pm Sep 6, 2012 12:33pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Alright, so what did I miss?

Non Farm Employment, Unemployment Claims, and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI all better than expected but USD drops?

I'm assuming the ECB press conference was more "hawkish" than expected?

Probably best I read through the last few pages to see what I missed...

Hope everyone is doing well today!
USD didnt drop its setting up for a major bull... but that doesn't mean crash for market.
  • #52,902
  • Sep 6, 2012 12:39pm Sep 6, 2012 12:39pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
Alright, so what did I miss?

Non Farm Employment, Unemployment Claims, and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI all better than expected but USD drops?

I'm assuming the ECB press conference was more "hawkish" than expected?

Probably best I read through the last few pages to see what I missed...

Hope everyone is doing well today!
Here... read this and the PDF attachments.
http://www.piptrapper.com/post-ecb-p...erence-update/
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #52,903
  • Sep 6, 2012 12:40pm Sep 6, 2012 12:40pm
Quoting sidhujag
USD didnt drop its setting up for a major bull... but that doesn't mean crash for market.
I agree that USD is at a multi-year low and is set to rally, however, just curious as to what happened today.
  • #52,904
  • Sep 6, 2012 12:40pm Sep 6, 2012 12:40pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Here... read this and the PDF attachments.
http://www.piptrapper.com/post-ecb-p...erence-update/
Thanks PT, I'm going to read through this right now.
  • #52,905
  • Sep 6, 2012 12:54pm Sep 6, 2012 12:54pm
Both SaP and USDX ready to break.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #52,906
  • Sep 6, 2012 1:03pm Sep 6, 2012 1:03pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Should I repeat what has been said?

T
Thanks you
Do what you are afraid to do -Emerson
  • #52,907
  • Sep 6, 2012 1:05pm Sep 6, 2012 1:05pm
Quoting Wulfgar
Im still holding some underwater EURAUD shorts and AU longs from the 1.2300/1.0240 levels respectively that Im managing... risk is limited to 2% per trade with my SL at the 1.2450/1.0150 levels...

we will see if I was justa bit early and the ultimate targets on the swings end up actually being hit
PA on the larger TFs showing some signs of topping out on the EURAUD and a short term bottom forming on the AUDUSD

Targets are 1.2152 on the EA and 1.043X on the AU.... THE EURAUD bounced off the critical 1.2254 bias number(as expected)... And the AU is still showing momentum pressing hard toward its first major M/W/D number of 1.0351 which should give a bounce at least.

Still waiting on the EU to position after NFPs tmmrw... The 1.2502 number is still HUGE support... Id like to see a break and close under that to position for a move back towards the 1.2050... to the upside we still may test the 1.2695/1.2742 M/W/D to complete the correction..... but the mid to long term downtrend is still in tact.


I feel its prudent we all understand what happened this AM with draghi. I researched and wrote a bit about it in my trading journal(taken from some news wires plus a bit of my own analysis): Ill share it here

WTF are Outright Monetary Transactions(OMT)?
The ECB unveiled its latest hotly awaited scheme to douse the crisis fires burning across the eurozone that threaten to engulf the global economy.
In one of the most highly anticipated meetings in ECB history, the bank left its key interest rates at their current all-time lows
Financial markets jumped after the announcement. While many of the details were expected, a further move by the ECB did send a message that the government stands ready to curb rise of bond yields
Draghi said in the post meeting conference that the Governing Council has agreed on the “modalities of outright monetary transactions”, the new bond-buying program aiming at the secondary markets.
The central bank will target bonds with maturities of one to three years. There will be “no quantitative limits” on the size of the bond purchase, but as speculated, there is no yield caps neither. Draghi emphasized that ECB is “strictly” within its mandate.

The OMTs will replace the ECB’s previous Securities Market Programme or SMP, first launched in May 2010.
Once a government asks for help from one of Europe’s bailout funds (EFSF/ESM) and then promises to stick to the strings attached to that help (conditionality) then the ECB can if chooses, buy some bonds that mature in 1 to 3 years.
The aim of the ECB, by opening its massive check book, is to bring bond yields, at the long end of the curve (10 years), down to levels that lowers borrowing costs for countries like Italy and Spain. The hope(emphasis on HOPE) is investors will regain confidence in the Euro and buy up bonds in a normal market.
OMT differs greatly from QE (Quantitative Easing) where the central banks in London and Washington buy bonds, and by doing so, put more money into the banking system in hopes it will spur economic activity. The ECB does not like QE.
We can probably expect some volatility in the coming weeks, as it is still unclear when/whether Spain is going to ask for EFSF/ESM intervention

So what happens now:

Outright Monetary Transactions plan announced this morning by Draghi does little to change the fundamental picture for the Euro, which is still in a downtrend and stuck under the 1.2695/1.2742 resistance.


That price range is the 50% retracement of the May-first high and the July-21st low and I believe that the short-term rally the Euro has been enjoying is over.
A close below $1.2502/2460 would confirm a change in trend and send price to retest the recent lows of $1.2050.
Will move now to NFP's where good news was announced earlier as the ADP employment report (per-cursor to NFP) showed a stronger than expected 201,000 increase in private employment in August 2012 following an upwardly revised 173,000 gain (was 163,000) in July. Market expectations were for a 140,000 increase in August.




Stay patient everyone and trade smart as always.






Wulf
  • #52,908
  • Sep 6, 2012 1:22pm Sep 6, 2012 1:22pm
Quoting Wulfgar
PA on the larger TFs showing some signs of topping out on the EURAUD and a short term bottom forming on the AUDUSD

Targets are 1.2152 on the EA and 1.043X on the AU.... THE EURAUD bounced off the critical 1.2254 bias number(as expected)... And the AU is still showing momentum pressing hard toward its first major M/W/D number of 1.0351 which should give a bounce at least.

Still waiting on the EU to position after NFPs tmmrw... The 1.2502 number is still HUGE support... Id like to see a break and close under that to position for a move back towards...
  • #52,909
  • Sep 6, 2012 1:25pm Sep 6, 2012 1:25pm
Quoting rekon67
So this is going to hoover on 1.2650 R1 before tomorrows NFP And a bad or nutral NFP data will push it to 1.28 zone.
Remember 2 months ago? NFP came out better than expected and euro rallied like crazy. Irrational
  • #52,910
  • Sep 6, 2012 1:26pm Sep 6, 2012 1:26pm
Quoting Wulfgar
PA on the larger TFs showing some signs of topping out on the EURAUD and a short term bottom forming on the AUDUSD

Targets are 1.2152 on the EA and 1.043X on the AU.... THE EURAUD bounced off the critical 1.2254 bias number(as expected)... And the AU is still showing momentum pressing hard toward its first major M/W/D number of 1.0351 which should give a bounce at least.

Still waiting on the EU to position after NFPs tmmrw... The 1.2502 number is still HUGE support... Id like to see a break and close under that to position for a move back...
I was caught off guard with AUD/USD and EUR/AUD of the data released late evening. Forgot it being the commodity currency and the risk-on mode.

Overall I still believe there will be no QE and still holding on long USD, JPY and short on Gold and Silver. It doesn't matter what I think but to understand what the markets are going to react to the coming events tomorrow is tricky for me.


Quoting Ken A
I just don't get it on the data released then AUD/USD and EUR/AUD making U-Turn. Don't you think these two contradict each other?

AUDEmployment Change -8.8K
AUDUnemployment Rate 5.1%
  • #52,911
  • Sep 6, 2012 1:37pm Sep 6, 2012 1:37pm
Quoting mka_78
Remember 2 months ago? NFP came out better than expected and euro rallied like crazy. Irrational
Yep, We had one underwear pattern in that NY session
  • #52,912
  • Sep 6, 2012 1:37pm Sep 6, 2012 1:37pm
Quoting mka_78
Remember 2 months ago? NFP came out better than expected and euro rallied like crazy. Irrational
When things are good, the market will shift to Risk-On which in turn shorting USD and EUR rally. I have seen this too often so to speculate to this number alone is risky with the coming events the rally is very news driven.
  • #52,913
  • Sep 6, 2012 1:52pm Sep 6, 2012 1:52pm
Quoting mka_78
Remember 2 months ago? NFP came out better than expected and euro rallied like crazy. Irrational
Two months ago:
1. The Euro was extremely net short out of fear of a Euro Zone breakup
2. QE3 was only 10-20% priced in

Today:
1. The extreme Euro net short has unwound
2. QE3 is 60% priced in
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #52,914
  • Sep 6, 2012 1:57pm Sep 6, 2012 1:57pm
Omg break you bastard! I want to go for my gyros. What is still holding the price? Everything is ready, perfect setup. Just push it a bit more bulls you nabs.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #52,915
  • Sep 6, 2012 2:01pm Sep 6, 2012 2:01pm
I know I've posted this chart on numerous occasions over the last 48 & promise this to be the last... But I'm really excited to ride this one down as all the setup parameters (from my side that is) are lining up! So a close above today's high followed by a bearish candle sets the final stage where I will then wait with my sell limit @ around 44 from that number set (+/- the 2680 & neighbors level) With that I anticipate tomorrows news will activate my order and that hopefully I should see u all @ around the 2500 level but as always I will just follow her lead... So best of luck to all tomorrow & may the pips be with u
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 9b sept 2012.gif Size: 33 KB
Those that say do not know. Those that know do not say.
  • #52,916
  • Sep 6, 2012 2:03pm Sep 6, 2012 2:03pm
Quoting Ken A
I was caught off guard with AUD/USD and EUR/AUD of the data released late evening. Forgot it being the commodity currency and the risk-on mode.

Overall I still believe there will be no QE and still holding on long USD, JPY and short on Gold and Silver. It doesn't matter what I think but to understand what the markets are going to react to the coming events tomorrow is tricky for me.
I brought up some FA on why we may see some short term Aussie strength the other day when i entered the net long aud positions. The techs support a bit of a bounce from the 1.017x weekly/monthly demand level.

The 1.0351 is critical on the au and if it breaks and closes i may get my number... We will see. The Euraud has the potential to revisit the 1.1600 lows if FA matches up. But ill take it one channel at a time and exit only when Im ready to risk a long.
  • #52,917
  • Sep 6, 2012 2:03pm Sep 6, 2012 2:03pm
Quoting ohenry
I know I've posted this chart on numerous occasions over the last 48 & promise this to be the last... ..
Nono, keep sending em pls, I like your charts.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #52,918
  • Sep 6, 2012 2:06pm Sep 6, 2012 2:06pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Nono, keep sending em pls, I like your charts.

T
Thanks T appreciate it
Those that say do not know. Those that know do not say.
  • #52,919
  • Sep 6, 2012 2:14pm Sep 6, 2012 2:14pm
Call me nuts...

Have you been watching the price action of crude from 10:45am EST? Once the dollar started falling and returned near the 81.100 level, the price of crude (which was at it's highest of the dat at $97.60) started to move down.

It has been falling since and my thought is that they are trying to keep the US dollar from falling below 81.000. Within the last 20 minutes, as the US dollar touched 81.000, crude dropped another 60 points to reach the low of the day at $95.06. This caused the dollar to have a small uptick and sits at 81.025 now.

For the last week or so, you could pretty much count on an uptick on crude would produce an uptick on the S&P. S&P is still near it day high so the correlation has been broken today.

ADD: Crude just dropped below $95 for a 260 point drop today (so far)after a 7.426M drawdown in inventories.
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #52,920
  • Sep 6, 2012 2:16pm Sep 6, 2012 2:16pm
Ok, I cant take it anymore, wtf m15 going down again. My stomach started to digest me from inside. I have drank like fifteen coffees. And havent smoked single cigarette, coz I wasnt able to go for new ones (See?, trading actually has some healthy aspects.) If we break and I wont be here, well, screw that, entry is set.

Anyway, I believe my entry will get hit very soon and once it does, I cant watch it, coz I could very easily get heartattack if it continues to go up.

Since I have been accused of listening to evil music, here is a track, which is definitely not evil and will make you smile.

Cya tomorrow @ London, and maybe around asia, If I decide not to sleep and catch up with smoking deficit.

T

Inserted Video
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
18 traders viewing now