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EUR/CHF

  • #9,561
  • Sep 6, 2012 11:50am Sep 6, 2012 11:50am
Quoting qatar
Because people is now complacent, when we are seeing clearly that every attempt to go up is frustrated. It's very difficult to see a jump but the pair can plummet to 1,2010 in a few minutes.

Market soon will realize again that EURCHF real value is under 1,20.
Yes but the SNB won't let it fall below 1.20

June and August they were spending billions everyday and it didn't break.
  • #9,562
  • Sep 6, 2012 11:51am Sep 6, 2012 11:51am
Quoting qatar
Because people is now complacent, when we are seeing clearly that every attempt to go up is frustrated. It's very difficult to see a jump but the pair can plummet to 1,2010 in a few minutes.

Market soon will realize again that EURCHF real value is under 1,20.
come on. this is what was expected for a year. you must be kidding talking about removing the peg.
  • #9,563
  • Sep 6, 2012 1:06pm Sep 6, 2012 1:06pm
TA wise, the hourly chart is making higher low and higher high now, 1.2070 is the next resistance. Break of this level will open next resistance of 1.2100/1.2125.

FA wise, given the "Conditionality attached to EFSF/ESM program" which could mean the total amount ECB can spent on this bond buying is limited by the total of EFSF/ESM fund, if it's true, sooner or later mr. market will start counting how much money is left in the arsenal for the operation. The question is, what will happen if the money run dry, or how many percent is the limit that ECB will/can take (before the Germans start to put more resistance on the operation). At the end, this program is just to buy time for troubled country govt. to try to resolve their fiscal situation. Given the complexity of the situation faced by euro zone, specially those PIIGS countries, my personal opinion is that there is chance 1.2 to be tested again.

just my 2 cents.
I mean what I say, I say what I mean
  • #9,564
  • Sep 6, 2012 1:38pm Sep 6, 2012 1:38pm
Quoting Neosaladin
TA wise, the hourly chart is making higher low and higher high now, 1.2070 is the next resistance. Break of this level will open next resistance of 1.2100/1.2125.

FA wise, given the "Conditionality attached to EFSF/ESM program" which could mean the total amount ECB can spent on this bond buying is limited by the total of EFSF/ESM fund, if it's true, sooner or later mr. market will start counting how much money is left in the arsenal for the operation. The question is, what will happen if the money run dry, or how many percent is the limit that...
Esm is for primary market, ECB will act on secondary market with marios unlimited printingpress nothing to count for mr. Market.condition is the IMF.
  • #9,565
  • Sep 6, 2012 1:45pm Sep 6, 2012 1:45pm
Quoting pipxster
Esm is for primary market, ECB will act on secondary market with marios unlimited printingpress nothing to count for mr. Market.condition is the IMF.
Thanks for the insight. In this case, only Germans scream will slow down the money printing.
I mean what I say, I say what I mean
  • #9,566
  • Edited 2:02pm Sep 6, 2012 1:45pm | Edited 2:02pm
Quoting brinks
Yes but the SNB won't let it fall below 1.20

June and August they were spending billions everyday and it didn't break.
I think maybe SNB wont let us to reload, rather will wait with the unloading and help upmove to sell higher. Japan style. No raise of the floor, it will raise on its "own"

My 2 cents
  • #9,567
  • Sep 6, 2012 1:50pm Sep 6, 2012 1:50pm
Quoting pipxster
I think maybe SNB wont let us to reload, rather will wait with the unloading and help upmove to sell higher. Japan style. No raise of the floor, it will raise on its "own"

My 2 cents
I reloaded small at 1.20300

Looking for a break of 1.20750 not sure it will get through it
  • #9,568
  • Sep 6, 2012 4:11pm Sep 6, 2012 4:11pm
have u ever thought why most of brokers decreased leverage and closed most of Longs before the move up?
  • #9,569
  • Sep 6, 2012 4:56pm Sep 6, 2012 4:56pm
They knew. LOL
(Draghi leak)
:: everything is awesome ::
  • #9,570
  • Sep 6, 2012 5:01pm Sep 6, 2012 5:01pm
Quoting Black Fox
They knew. LOL
(Draghi leak)
no not that simple. they are those brokers which are in contract with UBS and may have been under pressure by UBS.
  • #9,571
  • Sep 6, 2012 9:50pm Sep 6, 2012 9:50pm
failing to break higher up against a strong area maybe a slow drift back down.
Or is it just consolidating for the next leg up?

what do others think?
  • #9,572
  • Sep 7, 2012 1:13am Sep 7, 2012 1:13am
Quoting brinks
failing to break higher up against a strong area maybe a slow drift back down.
Or is it just consolidating for the next leg up?

what do others think?
Personally, I think this is the beginning of the end of constant pressur on the CHF floor. If we are lucky, we may get another scare or two allowing us to reload below 1.2020, most likely before the German ESM Court decision next week (or really bad thereafter, in case the court rejects constitutionality) or maybe some unedpected other event or statement. But otherwise that's gonna be it and at the next step forward (Spain asks for help and ECB actually implements its promised plan) Eur/chf will skyrocket. So IMO playtime is over, get ready for serious business!
  • #9,573
  • Sep 7, 2012 1:18am Sep 7, 2012 1:18am
Quoting Bluedolphin
Personally, I think this is the beginning of the end of constant pressur on the CHF floor. If we are lucky, we may get another scare or two allowing us to reload below 1.2020, most likely before the German ESM Court decision next week (or really bad thereafter, in case the court rejects constitutionality) or maybe some unedpected other event or statement. But otherwise that's gonna be it and at the next step forward (Spain asks for help and ECB actually implements its promised plan) Eur/chf will skyrocket. So IMO playtime is over, get ready for...
Thanks for your opinion bluedolphin i kept some from 1.20100 and reloaded not as heavy at 1.20300. it looks like it is trying to break up so lets hope so
  • #9,574
  • Sep 7, 2012 1:27am Sep 7, 2012 1:27am
In my opinion, this is a pair that I am uncomfortable going long in at this price as it is too far away from the floor. Obviously I can't take a large leveraged position as should the price return to near the floor I would be wiped out.

I am still of the opinion that this is a 'false dawn' but I admit that the last couple days have been rather strong and this pair has really come alive again.

I am going to wait to see how this pair plays out over the next week and see what happens. Looks like I will just have to be patient....
  • #9,575
  • Sep 7, 2012 1:32am Sep 7, 2012 1:32am
Quoting phil3526
In my opinion, this is a pair that I am uncomfortable going long in at this price as it is too far away from the floor. Obviously I can't take a large leveraged position as should the price return to near the floor I would be wiped out.

I am still of the opinion that this is a 'false dawn' but I admit that the last couple days have been rather strong and this pair has really come alive again.

I am going to wait to see how this pair plays out over the next week and see what happens. Looks like I will just have to be patient....
Phil i think a weekly close above 1.20750-80 area is quite a bullish sign.

Thats if it does close over that level.

And with the SNB meeting on thursday it could keep going for the start of next week.
  • #9,576
  • Sep 7, 2012 1:51am Sep 7, 2012 1:51am
Quoting brinks
Phil i think a weekly close above 1.20750-80 area is quite a bullish sign.

Thats if it does close over that level.

And with the SNB meeting on thursday it could keep going for the start of next week.
We are just about to break this area. I think if this really happens...we will go up!
  • #9,577
  • Sep 7, 2012 1:55am Sep 7, 2012 1:55am
Quoting profitoffx
We are just about to break this area. I think if this really happens...we will go up!
Big sellers here though
  • #9,578
  • Sep 7, 2012 1:57am Sep 7, 2012 1:57am
Quoting brinks
Big sellers here though
But even at this area dips are bought back immediatly. IMO there's a lot of steam in it. We might not break it in the first attempt butt sooner or later we will IMO. Level seems already to be damaged...
  • #9,579
  • Sep 7, 2012 2:00am Sep 7, 2012 2:00am
Quoting profitoffx
But even at this area dips are bought back immediatly. IMO there's a lot of steam in it. We might not break it in the first attempt butt sooner or later we will IMO. Level seems already to be damaged...
I agree i will wait for a pullback to this area and add a couple more for 1.21500
  • #9,580
  • Sep 7, 2012 2:05am Sep 7, 2012 2:05am
YEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Worth waiting for 4 months !!!!!!!!
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