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EUR/CHF

  • #9,501
  • Sep 5, 2012 9:43pm Sep 5, 2012 9:43pm
I've closed 70% of my positions.

Now the question is : What caused this spike up?
A - ECB meeting today? with rumored ECB bond buying?
B - Early spike towards SNB next week?
C - The anniversary of 1.20 peg & SNB may do something today?
  • #9,502
  • Sep 5, 2012 9:53pm Sep 5, 2012 9:53pm
Quoting alaneth
I've closed 70% of my positions.

Now the question is : What caused this spike up?
A - ECB meeting today? with rumored ECB bond buying?
B - Early spike towards SNB next week?
C - The anniversary of 1.20 peg & SNB may do something today?
yes to all..but im not sure you can call this a spike..seems very orderly to me..im long this pair for a very very long time.....i do think mr market thinks that the ecb bond buying is the first phase of solving the euro crisis..and maybe the cap. flows are finally easing into chf..maybe even reversing. Time will tell.
  • #9,503
  • Sep 5, 2012 10:39pm Sep 5, 2012 10:39pm
Quoting svtnick
yes to all..but im not sure you can call this a spike..seems very orderly to me..im long this pair for a very very long time.....i do think mr market thinks that the ecb bond buying is the first phase of solving the euro crisis..and maybe the cap. flows are finally easing into chf..maybe even reversing. Time will tell.
In my opinion, this will only be a relatively short move up. Even though it has been rather sustained (for the moment) I think that we will be back to the usual 1.2011 level after this euphoria ends.

Given the state the global economy, especially the EU is in, this crisis will take years and years and years to end. This could be a generational crisis.
  • #9,504
  • Sep 5, 2012 11:03pm Sep 5, 2012 11:03pm
Quoting phil3526
In my opinion, this will only be a relatively short move up. Even though it has been rather sustained (for the moment) I think that we will be back to the usual 1.2011 level after this euphoria ends.

Given the state the global economy, especially the EU is in, this crisis will take years and years and years to end. This could be a generational crisis.
Hi Phil, I hope you are right & that's what I believe also.

What is your advice on our open positions now - place trailing stop? or close near ECB this afternoon or wait till next week SNB?
Thanks,...
  • #9,505
  • Sep 5, 2012 11:36pm Sep 5, 2012 11:36pm
Quoting alaneth
Hi Phil, I hope you are right & that's what I believe also.

What is your advice on our open positions now - place trailing stop? or close near ECB this afternoon or wait till next week SNB?
Thanks,...
Firstly, I am the biggest idiot in the world.
I will explain: I had 6.50 standard lots open for the past 4 weeks that I stupidly decided to close about 2 days ago before this huge upmove!

And the funny part is that I opened that account solely for the purpose of keeping positions open for such a move and collecting swap! I repeat, I am an idiot!

I did close another couple positions at 1.2020 and 1.2019 in another account.

My advice on open positions, close them bit by bit as the price moves up. I would move my stop up at a bit below support areas. If I had my positions open I would be doing the same.

The ECB will probably leave rates on hold at 0.75%. I think that people are getting ahead of themselves by opening additional long positions now as the downside risk of 45 pips with large leverage positions will destroy small accounts.

I am going to sit this out and wait for a reload at 1.2010 level. I will be patient. I don't think this rally is justified. The SNB are not going to raise the floor level at the moment so I will just wait for the price to come back down.
  • #9,506
  • Sep 5, 2012 11:37pm Sep 5, 2012 11:37pm
Snb may raise it's cap to 1.2500 accidentally, after ecb meeting..
  • #9,507
  • Sep 5, 2012 11:38pm Sep 5, 2012 11:38pm
Quoting phil3526
In my opinion, this will only be a relatively short move up. Even though it has been rather sustained (for the moment) I think that we will be back to the usual 1.2011 level after this euphoria ends.

Given the state the global economy, especially the EU is in, this crisis will take years and years and years to end. This could be a generational crisis.
True...but if the ecb rumors are true...and with the issues the swiss are having in their own economy...staying at 1.20 is not going to happen...period...1.30 was already announced as fair value... as i have said before..capital flows have changed......which is what i watch. where we go from here i dont know..but it aint staying at 1.20 for years and years. If all the planets align just right, 1.25 is in the cards..if that breaks..1.30 is next...and an over shoot will follow as usual..... If the ECB fails, i still do believe the SNB will intervene at some point..probably raising the floor to 1.30. This week is important for this pair..thats for sure.
  • #9,508
  • Sep 6, 2012 12:00am Sep 6, 2012 12:00am
Quoting svtnick
True...but if the ecb rumors are true...and with the issues the swiss are having in their own economy...staying at 1.20 is not going to happen...period...1.30 was already announced as fair value... as i have said before..capital flows have changed......which is what i watch. where we go from here i dont know..but it aint staying at 1.20 for years and years. If all the planets align just right, 1.25 is in the cards..if that breaks..1.30 is next...and an over shoot will follow as usual..... If the ECB fails, i still do believe the SNB will intervene...
It could happen, and I have seen some info that says businesses wanted 1.3000 level as a floor, yet the SNB picked 1.2000.

If that does happen, hopefully I get a chance to reload first back at the 1.2011 mark
  • #9,509
  • Sep 6, 2012 12:09am Sep 6, 2012 12:09am
Quoting phil3526
In my opinion, this will only be a relatively short move up. Even though it has been rather sustained (for the moment) I think that we will be back to the usual 1.2011 level after this euphoria ends.

Given the state the global economy, especially the EU is in, this crisis will take years and years and years to end. This could be a generational crisis.
I agree with you. EURCHF can only go up if SNB raises floor, and would be stupid doing that tomorrow as rumored! Senseless rumors, as all other we have heard. Specially after last Jordan's speeches. Is Jordan going to celebrate a birthday? Cmon, they are serious! Aren't they?

Now I have reduced my short position (I am sure it will come back to 1,2010, but discipline above all), and I hope that 1,2075 won't be surpassed. Actually I believe we are on the top of an apparently consistent long spike that will come to an end as well
  • #9,510
  • Sep 6, 2012 12:24am Sep 6, 2012 12:24am
It was 1 year ago. Maybe again?
  • #9,511
  • Sep 6, 2012 12:27am Sep 6, 2012 12:27am
Quoting kdeurhj
It was 1 year ago. Maybe again?
I may be wrong but I can't see a raise of the floor coming but if we get a weekly close over 1.20750 could be seen as bullish I suppose
  • #9,512
  • Sep 6, 2012 1:04am Sep 6, 2012 1:04am
Gravity to 1.2 is gone. This is completely different environment now than previous spikes.
  • #9,513
  • Sep 6, 2012 1:07am Sep 6, 2012 1:07am
Quoting zweck
Gravity to 1.2 is gone. This is completely different environment now than previous spikes.
I agree i'm looking for a pullback to add more or a break of 1.20750
  • #9,514
  • Sep 6, 2012 1:28am Sep 6, 2012 1:28am
Quoting phil3526
Firstly, I am the biggest idiot in the world.
I will explain: I had 6.50 standard lots open for the past 4 weeks that I stupidly decided to close about 2 days ago before this huge upmove!

And the funny part is that I opened that account solely for the purpose of keeping positions open for such a move and collecting swap! I repeat, I am an idiot!

I did close another couple positions at 1.2020 and 1.2019 in another account.

My advice on open positions, close them bit by bit as the price moves up. I would move my stop up at a bit below support...

Hey Phil, you may feel like an idiot, but be assured there are definitely bigger ones: for example me! I had the biggest long position ever open and closed all of it for a few pips of cpi-news, just 2 hours before the ecb-leak! And now I watch my potential profit go up in smoke not knowing whether first to shot myself (no worries: waterpistol) or jump out of the window (ok, groundfloor). Man, and I had my whole analysis right, was just tempted to get a little extra before the BIG ride. Well, yeah, let's sit it out and be smarter next time. Eur/chf is longterm, big moves, and scalping should be limited to a few extrapositions you dont care about. I just pray I get another chance at this!
  • #9,515
  • Sep 6, 2012 1:33am Sep 6, 2012 1:33am
Quoting Bluedolphin
Hey Phil, you may feel like an idiot, but be assured there are definitely bigger ones: for example me! I had the biggest long position ever open and closed all of it for a few pips of cpi-news, just 2 hours before the ecb-leak! And now I watch my potential profit go up in smoke not knowing whether first to shot myself (no worries: waterpistol) or jump out of the window (ok, groundfloor). Man, and I had my whole analysis right, was just tempted to get a little extra before the BIG ride. Well, yeah, let's sit it out and be smarter next time. Eur/chf...
It hasnt cleared any major area yet so longs are not out of the woods.

You may get the chance to long again.

And what was this move based on? the bond buying from the ECB or a floor raise rumour?

If it was the floor raise rumour and it doesnt happen it could easily slip back into the 1.20100 range
  • #9,516
  • Sep 6, 2012 1:37am Sep 6, 2012 1:37am
Quoting Bluedolphin
Hey Phil, you may feel like an idiot, but be assured there are definitely bigger ones: for example me! I had the biggest long position ever open and closed all of it for a few pips of cpi-news, just 2 hours before the ecb-leak! And now I watch my potential profit go up in smoke not knowing whether first to shot myself (no worries: waterpistol) or jump out of the window (ok, groundfloor). Man, and I had my whole analysis right, was just tempted to get a little extra before the BIG ride. Well, yeah, let's sit it out and be smarter next time. Eur/chf...
Hi Bluedolphin, I'm glad I am not the only one who made a silly decision! At one point I had 20 standard lots long eurchf, I was doing the sums and I almost want to cry! lol, I live in a home and it only has one level (fortunately) I too, pray I get another chance at this!

But on September 13th, we have come eurchf data. I hope I get a chance to reload before then...
  • #9,517
  • Sep 6, 2012 1:43am Sep 6, 2012 1:43am
For the moment I just don't see it going back to 1,20...We are making another higher high and dips are bought back. I guess the only way for this to reverse is a disappointing meeting of the ecb today...
  • #9,518
  • Sep 6, 2012 1:48am Sep 6, 2012 1:48am
Congratulations on the 1-year anniversary of The Floor!
  • #9,519
  • Sep 6, 2012 1:50am Sep 6, 2012 1:50am
Quoting brinks
It hasnt cleared any major area yet so longs are not out of the woods.

You may get the chance to long again.

And what was this move based on? the bond buying from the ECB or a floor raise rumour?

If it was the floor raise rumour and it doesnt happen it could easily slip back into the 1.20100 range
To be honest, I believe the move is in part due to the floor raise rumour, which seems rather naive to me, but unfortunately there is also an important aspect of potential game changer news in Draghis leaked plan, so the situation may have become a bit more complex. But true, even the leaked plan is not yet a full solution and the German court decision on esm is still looming. So there is a good chance it will drop to the 1.2020 area again before the final take off!
  • #9,520
  • Sep 6, 2012 2:07am Sep 6, 2012 2:07am
A small correlation between EUR/USD and EUR/CHF seems to have started from yesterday !!
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