Why the EUR/CHF rally could have some more legs this time
Written by Jamie Coleman
September 5, 2012 at 14:49 GMT
One word. Flows.
With the European crisis abating somewhat, inflows into Switzerland have abated somewhat since the beginning of August. The SNB has had to buy fewer euros to defend the 1.20 peg and therefore has to sell fewer euros into the market in EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/AUD, etc than it did in prior months.
Many remain short the cross, seeing it as a low-cost option hedging against collapse of the euro zone. The less likely a collapse, the more likely those stale longs are to cover their positions.
Draghi’s bond buying plan looks to be far from a game-changer for Europe, but it does look like an effective time-buyer. That might be enough to prompt the EUR/CHF shorts to cover at least part of their position.
Written by Jamie Coleman
September 5, 2012 at 14:49 GMT
One word. Flows.
With the European crisis abating somewhat, inflows into Switzerland have abated somewhat since the beginning of August. The SNB has had to buy fewer euros to defend the 1.20 peg and therefore has to sell fewer euros into the market in EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/AUD, etc than it did in prior months.
Many remain short the cross, seeing it as a low-cost option hedging against collapse of the euro zone. The less likely a collapse, the more likely those stale longs are to cover their positions.
Draghi’s bond buying plan looks to be far from a game-changer for Europe, but it does look like an effective time-buyer. That might be enough to prompt the EUR/CHF shorts to cover at least part of their position.
but still I have 6 lots. I wonder to long again or not?