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EUR/CHF

  • #9,401
  • Edited 2:24am Sep 5, 2012 12:47am | Edited 2:24am
Danthine speaks today in a hour as well as CPI results.

SNB’s Danthine: Switzerland facing rising risk of default, correction




  1. Rising rates, lower growth could raise default risk
  2. SNB will monitor situation for need of buffer
  3. Buffer would only target mortgage, property markets
  4. Countercyclical capital buffer ‘important step’
  5. Gradual buildup of imbalances on property market
  6. Some signs of slowing momentum on mortgage market
  7. Sees buildup of stability risk
  8. Buffer would be used in ‘balanced, flexible way’
  9. No room for complacency over recovery
  10. More Danthine: Swiss franc is still

SWISS, WORLD MUST ACT TO AVOID NEW CRISIS!!!!

Swiss CPI flat m/m, -0.5% y/y

More Danthine: Swiss franc is still overvalued


  1. Interest rate policy not available at present

Whatever that means ? does he mean negative rates are not available at present?

  • #9,402
  • Sep 5, 2012 2:38am Sep 5, 2012 2:38am
Quoting qatar
Eurozone situation can improve in short term (too much hope?), but problems are here to stay (recession in Med countries may deepen). If situation worsens, there will be attacks, if situation improves, SNB will lower or abandon the peg. Is Switzerland expensive? Yes. Is franc overvalued? According to the market, and it is wright, not. Why? Balance of payment surplus, low ling term inflation, etc

And after last Jordan's words, the attack will become a reality. So I wonder the same than you: why should not let the pair go right now? This is the problem,...
after all what happened the last 5 years, you still believe that markets are right all the time?
  • #9,403
  • Edited 2:54am Sep 5, 2012 2:40am | Edited 2:54am
Yet again a chance for the SNB wasted.


Swiss Economy Minister: H2 will be more difficult for Swiss economy

Written by Gerry Davies
September 5, 2012 at 07:41 GMT




  1. Remains ‘skeptical’ on negative rates
  2. SNB franc ceiling of decisive importance
  3. Franc fair value remains around 1.3000
  4. No imminent need for emergency measures
  5. Crisis measures would be ‘extraordinary’
  6. Swiss banking secrecy will remain in place

Anyone out there still think the Swiss are going to dispense with the EUR/CHF peg in the foreseeable future? Yer right………

why has he said no need for imminent emergency measures? they are completely stupid.

You cant say that franc fair value is 1.30 then in the same breath say but we wont be doing anything about it

  • #9,404
  • Sep 5, 2012 3:07am Sep 5, 2012 3:07am
Anyone knows where to buy options?
  • #9,405
  • Sep 5, 2012 3:10am Sep 5, 2012 3:10am
Are they really that stupid? I think the message is clear: no capital control at this point and defending the peg




Quoting brinks
Yet again a chance for the SNB wasted.


Swiss Economy Minister: H2 will be more difficult for Swiss economy

Written by Gerry Davies
September 5, 2012 at 07:41 GMT




[list][*]Remains ‘skeptical’ on negative rates[*]SNB franc ceiling of decisive importance[*]Franc fair value...
  • #9,406
  • Sep 5, 2012 3:10am Sep 5, 2012 3:10am
Quoting brinks
Yet again a chance for the SNB wasted.


Swiss Economy Minister: H2 will be more difficult for Swiss economy

Written by Gerry Davies
September 5, 2012 at 07:41 GMT




[list][*]Remains ‘skeptical’ on negative rates[*]SNB franc ceiling of decisive importance[*]Franc fair value...
they think that market will have to do it.

real estate bubble, banking sector under worldwide political pressure, recession ahead, there is no need for EURCHF to be at 1.20... could be on 1.25 or 1.30 by itself... switzerland is not as secure as it is held for... if the economy worsens hefty, they will act... but not before...
  • #9,407
  • Sep 5, 2012 3:15am Sep 5, 2012 3:15am
Quoting Swissie
they think that market will have to do it.

real estate bubble, banking sector under worldwide political pressure, recession ahead, there is no need for EURCHF to be at 1.20... could be on 1.25 or 1.30 by itself... switzerland is not as secure as it is held for... if the economy worsens hefty, they will act... but not before...
Inflation figures a little worse than expected not by much.

These people have the power to move this pair by words spoken with next weeks monetary meeting all they needed was a well place comment and they could relieve the pressure on the floor and sell some euro at a higher price
  • #9,408
  • Sep 5, 2012 3:18am Sep 5, 2012 3:18am
Quoting Fxworld
Are they really that stupid? I think the message is clear: no capital control at this point and defending the peg
Yes the message is clear but you cant complain the franc is overvalued and it should be at 1.30 then say but we wont do anything about it
  • #9,409
  • Sep 5, 2012 3:50am Sep 5, 2012 3:50am
They are doing it all the time- they are defending the peg. When you want to sell something(lets say a car) your first offer is much higher than your second etc. They say that the franc should be at 1.30, but the equilibrium is at 1.20


Quoting brinks
Yes the message is clear but you cant complain the franc is overvalued and it should be at 1.30 then say but we wont do anything about it
  • #9,410
  • Sep 5, 2012 4:10am Sep 5, 2012 4:10am
I find it kind of funny that people are saying SNB is stupid. What should they do in your opinion? Just raise the floor to 1,30 because the Franc is overvalued?! They don't want to be seen as manipulators of the exchange rate (of course some of you will argue that this is exactly what they are doing with the peg...and you are right. But the peg is justified (all leading institutions agree on that point (IWF,...)) as it is necessary at the moment for the Swiss economy). The higher the peg, the better for the Swiss economy. So why not raise the peg to 1,50?! The function of an exchange rate is to ensure that every country stays competitive - you can't just manipulate it as you want.

In the Swiss case the market reacted in an abnormal way. EURCHF was verry overvalued and it is still overvalued. In my opinion SNB is smart. All they need to do is to wait. When things are getting normal again so will the rate of eurchf (my opinion)....
  • #9,411
  • Sep 5, 2012 4:12am Sep 5, 2012 4:12am
Till then they need to live with 1,20 - a rate which is challanging (to ensure their policy is accepted) but not devastating for their economy. They will just raise the peg if things are really going worse.
  • #9,412
  • Sep 5, 2012 4:40am Sep 5, 2012 4:40am
Quoting profitoffx
I find it kind of funny that people are saying SNB is stupid. What should they do in your opinion? Just raise the floor to 1,30 because the Franc is overvalued?! They don't want to be seen as manipulators of the exchange rate (of course some of you will argue that this is exactly what they are doing with the peg...and you are right. But the peg is justified (all leading institutions agree on that point (IWF,...)) as it is necessary at the moment for the Swiss economy). The higher the peg, the better for the Swiss economy. So why not raise the peg...
I agree with you and have never thought that a raise to 1.30 was going to happen,but they could do more in the way of verbal intervention just before this monetary meeting to relieve pressure on the floor and also sell euro at a higher level.

The rate would probably be back to 1.20100 by the next day but if you get a daily close above important levels people may start to change there sell attitude because the floor wont last.

Just look at what happend after the peg was brought in and people expected another raise it was up near 1.25
  • #9,413
  • Sep 5, 2012 7:12am Sep 5, 2012 7:12am
Now look at the charts. Seems like eurchf is trending up >5pips. What do you think best to do now? TP? At what level? Or just ignore and wait for a higher level? Or wait till nx wk SNB?
  • #9,414
  • Sep 5, 2012 7:24am Sep 5, 2012 7:24am
Quoting alaneth
Now look at the charts. Seems like eurchf is trending up >5pips. What do you think best to do now? TP? At what level? Or just ignore and wait for a higher level? Or wait till nx wk SNB?
if you had the patience to wait till now, keep on waiting!
  • #9,415
  • Sep 5, 2012 7:27am Sep 5, 2012 7:27am
You clearly see what can move this pair. Roumors abobut Draghis bond buying plan. That's what I told you before: I think that when measures are taken in the Eurozone, eurchf rate will become normal again...
  • #9,416
  • Sep 5, 2012 7:32am Sep 5, 2012 7:32am
Quote
Now look at the charts. Seems like eurchf is trending up >5pips. What do you think best to do now? TP? At what level? Or just ignore and wait for a higher level? Or wait till nx wk SNB?

It will come back to its 5 pips range shortly...
Those of you who have tight spread press on that SELL button
  • #9,417
  • Sep 5, 2012 7:34am Sep 5, 2012 7:34am
I am not sure this time...if Draghi delivers tomorrow things could be different IMO.
  • #9,418
  • Sep 5, 2012 7:42am Sep 5, 2012 7:42am
I really didn't expect this 20 pips spike
  • #9,419
  • Sep 5, 2012 7:46am Sep 5, 2012 7:46am
Quoting qatar
I really didn't expect this 20 pips spike
nither did i :S
  • #9,420
  • Sep 5, 2012 7:54am Sep 5, 2012 7:54am
Quoting skymania
nither did i :S
looks set to re-test 1.2070
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