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EUR/CHF

  • #9,381
  • Sep 4, 2012 11:55am Sep 4, 2012 11:55am
SNB will be reviewing the peg somewhere in mid sept..

I also planning to put some sell order
  • #9,382
  • Sep 4, 2012 11:59am Sep 4, 2012 11:59am
Quoting DavidHoh
SNB will be reviewing the peg somewhere in mid sept..

I also planning to put some sell order
May I ask why you think the peg will not hold?
  • #9,383
  • Sep 4, 2012 12:02pm Sep 4, 2012 12:02pm
Quoting holmes
May I ask why you think the peg will not hold?
I think they are looking for it to be removed
  • #9,384
  • Sep 4, 2012 12:05pm Sep 4, 2012 12:05pm
Quoting brinks
I think they are looking for it to be removed
Who r they? you mean the SNB?
  • #9,385
  • Sep 4, 2012 12:07pm Sep 4, 2012 12:07pm
Quoting holmes
Who r they? you mean the SNB?

No the people with sell stops on
  • #9,386
  • Sep 4, 2012 12:07pm Sep 4, 2012 12:07pm
SNB will do the review in this month september.

Defending the ceiling of 1.20 without doing them more benefit vs harm.

It is better they release it.

Anyway will keep my eye on EUR/CHF mid sept. Just in case they feel want to release it
  • #9,387
  • Sep 4, 2012 12:09pm Sep 4, 2012 12:09pm
Quoting DavidHoh
SNB will do the review in this month september.

Defending the ceiling of 1.20 without doing them more benefit vs harm.

It is better they release it.

Anyway will keep my eye on EUR/CHF mid sept. Just in case they feel want to release it
If they dont defend 1.20 they will do even more harm?
  • #9,388
  • Sep 4, 2012 12:16pm Sep 4, 2012 12:16pm
Quoting brinks
No the people with sell stops on
There are many critics about SNB loose monetary policy however as Jordan said [email protected] has been an extreme decision and since then things have worsened, I can easily see that SNB hasn't been successful in price stability CPI figures show that in addition the ratio of CPI on PPI which is more important and show productivity has surged in accordance with that of EZ, we saw GDP at the lowest level in 3 years which we were expecting for last Q, in such a situation why people must bet against SNB policy? It can easily be seen that 1.2 is so extreme and low, while the industry is suffering from highly valued chf the SNB WON'T remove the peg and removing can't be justified in any means.
  • #9,389
  • Sep 4, 2012 12:18pm Sep 4, 2012 12:18pm
Recent news stated that Eur peg are threatening their property causing them to be overvalue.

And SNB reserves is growing with Euro$ where currently they finding way to dispose it but not fast enough compare to their buying to defend the peg
  • #9,390
  • Sep 4, 2012 12:27pm Sep 4, 2012 12:27pm
Quoting DavidHoh
Recent news stated that Eur peg are threatening their property causing them to be overvalue.

And SNB reserves is growing with Euro$ where currently they finding way to dispose it but not fast enough compare to their buying to defend the peg
The amount they are having to intervene has been slowing down and I had read somewhere they have nearly finished diversifying there reserves.

Not sure if that is true or rumour.
  • #9,391
  • Sep 4, 2012 12:35pm Sep 4, 2012 12:35pm
Quoting DavidHoh
Recent news stated that Eur peg are threatening their property causing them to be overvalue.

And SNB reserves is growing with Euro$ where currently they finding way to dispose it but not fast enough compare to their buying to defend the peg
There are ways to evaluate Real Currency rate and Value of real state far from that the market goes after Supply and Demand, Things in Switzerland are going wrong. the value of real estate doesn't match with Income Per Capita, and the CHF doesn't match with price stability, the SNB needs to find an equilibrium in supply and demand and if they find it essential there are ways, but removing the peg is not a solution.
  • #9,392
  • Sep 4, 2012 1:24pm Sep 4, 2012 1:24pm
Lets see what we have:

- a contracting economy (very likely also next quarter as jordan warned)
- deflation (still, yes even tomorrow you'll see - why? Because of ez)
- slowing intervention with ecb bond buying on the horizon
- a partly success in policy and measures

And whats next? Lets realise about 10% loss of the gdp, and remove the lifeline
kicking the swiss economy down from the cliff? Lets add approx 5% more deflation?

C'mon guys are you serious? They have all the reasons to RAISE the peg atm.
Plus do not forget snb want profit. They can have 20-40 billions for
the swiss econ and also some private.

Chances to remove the peg are lower than ever.brokers dont want to pay you if you win with your longs.
  • #9,393
  • Sep 4, 2012 2:00pm Sep 4, 2012 2:00pm
http://snbchf.com/2012/07/73-of-swis...ested-in-euro/
You can lose your shirt if your buttons are loose.
  • #9,394
  • Sep 4, 2012 2:08pm Sep 4, 2012 2:08pm
Quoting Scooby
http://snbchf.com/2012/07/73-of-swis...ested-in-euro/
Certainly the loss will be too much if the peg removed, not only for the SNB but also for economy as well. If officials in Govt. support the policy it is because the peg won't be removed.
  • #9,395
  • Sep 4, 2012 3:19pm Sep 4, 2012 3:19pm
Quoting Scooby
http://snbchf.com/2012/07/73-of-swis...ested-in-euro/
George Doran again lol. In he's dreams the peg has broken months ago and considerable inflation emerged 2012 early-mid summer.read hes earlier posts.
Since may he dropped the disclaimer that he's shorting eurchf, wonder why...
  • #9,396
  • Sep 4, 2012 3:48pm Sep 4, 2012 3:48pm
Quoting holmes
Certainly the loss will be too much if the peg removed, not only for the SNB but also for economy as well. If officials in Govt. support the policy it is because the peg won't be removed.
The question is not how much will SNB economy lose if Peg is abandoned NOW, but the cost it will have in the future if inflation appears and Foreign Reserves arrive to a Billion in 2 years
  • #9,397
  • Sep 4, 2012 4:44pm Sep 4, 2012 4:44pm
Quoting holmes
Certainly the loss will be too much if the peg removed, not only for the SNB but also for economy as well. If officials in Govt. support the policy it is because the peg won't be removed.
Accounting-wise you are right.

In reality, however, the loss is there because no one buys billions of EUR for 1,20CHF.

Without the peg, SNB could buy EUR for around parity. Therefore pegging can't be a strategy for SNB gains.
  • #9,398
  • Sep 4, 2012 8:45pm Sep 4, 2012 8:45pm
you guys are underestimating the powers of a CB

1. SNB has made profits on reserve appreciation.
2. in the event of EZ fragmentation, SNB can always impose capital controls which Jordan has publicly considered
3. in the event of inflation from excess M2, SNB can always always discard the current CHF and introduce a new currency and allow exchange ONLY for locals
  • #9,399
  • Sep 4, 2012 10:40pm Sep 4, 2012 10:40pm
Hi guys

I have a broker that i believe its the better tomtrade Eur/Chf nowadays because it gives me 6 most important things to mKe big money in this pair

1- spread its variable, typical is 1pip but if i have pacience i can esely get 0,4 in some periods

2- comission is 10usd per lot, however i get a rebate of 4usd per lot from my affiliate

3- leverage is 1/300

4- Stop out level is 20%

5- Swap was 3,4 usd per day per lot some months ago, but now its 0,49usd per day per lot, not a fortune but at least its positive, which is not easy to find nowadays in this pair

6- Spikes down ar midnight Server time which is 22h00 London time are Typically 7 pips, the worst ever was 15pips. I would prefer 0 but since my stop out level its only in 1.1970 i can manage spikes until 40pips


In my opinion these are the most important itens in order to choose a broker to trade this pair.

However my broker its not regulates in australia london or usa, so i would like to not put all the eggs in same pot and find another broker to share the risk, at least 20% of my investement

In order to we help each other i would suggest that if any of u guys have a broker that acomplish all these 6 conditions i mentioned please tell me the name and tell me numbers
  • #9,400
  • Sep 4, 2012 11:54pm Sep 4, 2012 11:54pm
Quoting Luigi111
Hi guys

I have a broker that i believe its the better tomtrade Eur/Chf nowadays because it gives..............
.......In order to we help each other i would suggest that if any of u guys have a broker that acomplish all these 6 conditions i mentioned please tell me the name and tell me numbers
Everything is uncertain now. All brokers are also uncertain, we may have good brokers today that only turns bad tomorrow. AVA used to have good swaps, but they suddenly changed to negative swap the next day. And they spike down bad too. Some brokers reduce leverage & who knows what will happen next.

My suggestion to trade EURCHF long is to put your money in a basket of brokers. I currently have 4 different brokers. Looking to open another one to diversify more.
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