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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #323,481
  • Sep 4, 2012 11:41am Sep 4, 2012 11:41am
Quoting redbeben
That image is a bit sensitive to me as i had a close encounter with a bear....pretty scary
ah come on....thats bull!!
  • #323,482
  • Sep 4, 2012 11:54am Sep 4, 2012 11:54am
A question to think about,

1. cable has been in a period of consolidation in a narrow 400 pip range for almost 4 months.

2. When cable finally breaks out from this range to the upside, shouldn't we see huge buying pressures has people QUICKLY jump on the trend?

3. Clearly we do not see that - we see confusion, and reluctance to be bullish.

4. By inference, cable must go down because that's where the order flow is pointing towards...
Build good relationships with others.
  • #323,483
  • Sep 4, 2012 12:12pm Sep 4, 2012 12:12pm
Quoting shellsnail
A question to think about,

1. cable has been in a period of consolidation in a narrow 400 pip range for almost 4 months.

2. When cable finally breaks out from this range to the upside, shouldn't we see huge buying pressures has people QUICKLY jump on the trend?

3. Clearly we do not see that - we see confusion, and reluctance to be bullish.

4. By inference, cable must go down because that's where the order flow is pointing towards...

One could argue that's similar to what we've seen in August (2nd box). An acceleration of more buying. No?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu_daily.gif Size: 31 KB
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #323,484
  • Sep 4, 2012 12:16pm Sep 4, 2012 12:16pm
Quoting albchr
One could argue that's similar to what we've seen in August (2nd box). An acceleration of more buying. No?
True, but if this trend was going to be bullish in the larger time frames, this would have SHOT up by now, this is like moving through mud even though these levels were already blown past once when this broke out previously...

Clearly, buyers are not convicted. And if we think larger time frames, it's likely that the selling pressure is higher and this could just be a false breakout on a longer-time frame perspective...
Build good relationships with others.
  • #323,485
  • Sep 4, 2012 12:26pm Sep 4, 2012 12:26pm
Quoting shellsnail
A question to think about,

1. cable has been in a period of consolidation in a narrow 400 pip range for almost 4 months.

2. When cable finally breaks out from this range to the upside, shouldn't we see huge buying pressures has people QUICKLY jump on the trend?

3. Clearly we do not see that - we see confusion, and reluctance to be bullish.

4. By inference, cable must go down because that's where the order flow is pointing towards...
Watching GBP is like watching someone treading water not wanting to go under.....with more uncertainty in the financial world I would expect we see some risk off soon..
  • #323,486
  • Sep 4, 2012 12:26pm Sep 4, 2012 12:26pm
Quoting shellsnail
True, but if this trend was going to be bullish in the larger time frames, this would have SHOT up by now, this is like moving through mud even though these levels were already blown past once when this broke out previously...

Clearly, buyers are not convicted. And if we think larger time frames, it's likely that the selling pressure is higher and this could just be a false breakout on a longer-time frame perspective...
I don't expect anything to "shoot" in the slowest month of trading myself. This is bullish in the larger TF's and has been for months. Including the past 3. Now we're at serious S/R so yep, things gonna get choppy.

Don't get me wrong, I'm still looking for a test of 5730ish myself and have been since the north break on Daily. But to say this hasn't been bullish "overall"? I don't see that personally. But, only time will tell.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu_month.gif Size: 27 KB
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #323,487
  • Sep 4, 2012 12:28pm Sep 4, 2012 12:28pm
Quoting shellsnail
A question to think about,

1. cable has been in a period of consolidation in a narrow 400 pip range for almost 4 months.

2. When cable finally breaks out from this range to the upside, shouldn't we see huge buying pressures has people QUICKLY jump on the trend?

3. Clearly we do not see that - we see confusion, and reluctance to be bullish.

4. By inference, cable must go down because that's where the order flow is pointing towards...
u forget one thing..its a zero sum game..market will move in the right direction when both sides are confused..right now..market is dancing in 1.58 area very close 1.59..its basing..if u look what i posted b4..cable even to go down cannot cut through the traffic so easy and can bounce anywhere..shorter have to bear this in mind

move up......consolidation (this is a bullish stance)..........move up ......consolidation or vica vera

this is where the strong show and the weak get of the bus..
shorters are tempted and fustrated because we still up here (how is this bearish)??..if u sold u would understand and perhaps exit out of fear..same thing with longs.......fustrated and fearfull (might do something stupid)..market makes or tries to make every1 do stupid things, to extract corn
but u have a view and it needs to be respected
  • #323,488
  • Sep 4, 2012 12:28pm Sep 4, 2012 12:28pm
Quoting albchr
I don't expect anything to "shoot" in the slowest month of trading myself. This is bullish in the larger TF's and has been for months. Including the past 3. Now we're at serious S/R so yep, things gonna get choppy.

Don't get me wrong, I'm still looking for a test of 5730ish myself and have been since the north break. But to say this hasn't been bullish "overall"? I don't see that personally. But, only time will tell.
yeah, i agree the test of the 5730ish will be crucial...

Gold's breakout seems pretty real though, that could pull some weight on cable...
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  • #323,489
  • Sep 4, 2012 12:31pm Sep 4, 2012 12:31pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
u forget one thing..its a zero sum game..market will move in the right direction when both sides are confused..right now..market is dancing in 1.58 area very close 1.59..its basing..if u look what i posted b4..cable even to go down cannot cut through the traffic so easy and can bounce anywhere..shorter have to bear this in mind

move up......consolidation ..........move up ......consolidation or vica vera

this is where the strong show and the weak get of the bus..
but u have a view and it needs to be respected
Yeah, what I am saying is that in the short term this is unlikely to shoot up without first finding some base/consolidation...

But once we hit those levels, true general direction is UP, and I will agree the charts show that, but the downward move will be much more impulsive if it materialises so I would hope that happens for better R:R ratio
Build good relationships with others.
  • #323,490
  • Sep 4, 2012 12:38pm Sep 4, 2012 12:38pm
Quoting shellsnail
Yeah, what I am saying is that in the short term this is unlikely to shoot up without first finding some base/consolidation...

But once we hit those levels, true general direction is UP, and I will agree the charts show that, but the downward move will be much more impulsive if it materialises so I would hope that happens for better R:R ratio

i reckon it will break it..personally
  • #323,491
  • Sep 4, 2012 12:51pm Sep 4, 2012 12:51pm
Quarter Candle
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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not euphoria follower
  • #323,492
  • Sep 4, 2012 1:02pm Sep 4, 2012 1:02pm
Another 4H just closed and open new 4H candle
Closed and open below old supply zone
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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not euphoria follower
  • #323,493
  • Sep 4, 2012 1:14pm Sep 4, 2012 1:14pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
u forget one thing..its a zero sum game..market will move in the right direction when both sides are confused..right now..market is dancing in 1.58 area very close 1.59..its basing..if u look what i posted b4..cable even to go down cannot cut through the traffic so easy and can bounce anywhere..shorter have to bear this in mind

move up......consolidation (this is a bullish stance)..........move up ......consolidation or vica vera

this is where the strong show and the weak get of the bus..
shorters are tempted and fustrated because we still...
We could very well be here until the court ruling...
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #323,494
  • Sep 4, 2012 1:30pm Sep 4, 2012 1:30pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
We could very well be here until the court ruling...

oh mein got, ich hoffe nicht, ich langweile mich

going out to do some jobs, i really hope this stalemate dont last til next week.

On the argument i think it is difficult to argue against the uptrend that we have been on and for sure it accelerated somewhat and not the opposite.

I am short but im only looking for 1.58, from here i will not be tempted though to go long. As redbeben has warned a few times and others, this market isnt one to be in if you have the choice.
Money never sleeps...
  • #323,495
  • Sep 4, 2012 3:09pm Sep 4, 2012 3:09pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...2&d=1346725240

+/- 81.3 is top of 2011
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pvj855.gif Size: 11 KB
not euphoria follower
  • #323,496
  • Sep 4, 2012 6:56pm Sep 4, 2012 6:56pm
The price action in the last couple of hours (10) haven't been good for the shorts.

If this 4 hr candle (NY Close), manages to close above the 20EMA on the 4hr, shorts are over, this thing is breaking out...

Simply put...

1) Higher highs have been made with each push up.
2) Higher lows have been made.
3) The bear side of things have been contracting.
4) Many wicks into topside Supply/resistance area.
5) Finding support at 20EMA

All these = pre-breakout signs.

Once we hit the supply zone expect a BOOM.
Attached Image
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  • #323,497
  • Sep 4, 2012 7:20pm Sep 4, 2012 7:20pm
Quoting inpatient
oh mein got, ich hoffe nicht, ich langweile mich

going out to do some jobs, i really hope this stalemate dont last til next week.

On the argument i think it is difficult to argue against the uptrend that we have been on and for sure it accelerated somewhat and not the opposite.

I am short but im only looking for 1.58, from here i will not be tempted though to go long. As redbeben has warned a few times and others, this market isnt one to be in if you have the choice.

Is that German swearing Inpatient?
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #323,498
  • Sep 4, 2012 7:24pm Sep 4, 2012 7:24pm
am short in GU @ 1.5870 Target 1.5839
Forex Learner
  • #323,499
  • Sep 4, 2012 7:38pm Sep 4, 2012 7:38pm
Quoting Ill-b-back

Is that German swearing Inpatient?
nah not quite, just saying i was bored and i hope that we dont have to wait until next week for any real movement here.
Money never sleeps...
  • #323,500
  • Sep 4, 2012 7:51pm Sep 4, 2012 7:51pm
Quoting shellsnail
The price action in the last couple of hours (10) haven't been good for the shorts.

If this 4 hr candle (NY Close), manages to close above the 20EMA on the 4hr, shorts are over, this thing is breaking out...

Simply put...

1) Higher highs have been made with each push up.
2) Higher lows have been made.
3) The bear side of things have been contracting.
4) Many wicks into topside Supply/resistance area.
5) Finding support at 20EMA

All these = pre-breakout signs.

Once we hit the supply zone expect a BOOM.
Could be interpreted many ways right now depending on timeframe, fav indicator etc.
What is for sure is that as this thing takes longer and longer to pick a direction it is making both bulls and bears more concerned as there seems to be no momentum either way. At times like this what do we do? Well the monthly chart tells us that we are well below the moving average. the trend has been up, we are at the top of a more than 3 month high but price has accelerated, we have struggled with the 61.8 fib, lots of different ways of looking at things.

Personally i closed out some of my shorts at just a slight profit on the recent drops just to minimise risk, i think we might go a little lower but for sure nothing is certain right now.

Still holding a few shorts.
Money never sleeps...
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