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EUR/CHF

  • #9,361
  • Sep 4, 2012 12:40am Sep 4, 2012 12:40am
Quoting brinks
I dont see it getting to 1.40
nither do i
  • #9,362
  • Sep 4, 2012 12:49am Sep 4, 2012 12:49am
Quoting brinks
I dont see it getting to 1.40
I dont know. maybe the next summer. But if there is another QE in USA and if the situation of zone euro improves, it's possible that euro appreciates. So if EURUSD goes up to 1,40, USDCHF goes down to 0,85 or more and the swiss franc will be extremely overvalued. Then SNB can act and they can rise the eurchf peg.

If the euro continues to depreciate, there will be more pressure to the floor.

Another posibility is the worst scenary. the collapse of the euro
  • #9,363
  • Sep 4, 2012 1:01am Sep 4, 2012 1:01am
In my opinion, I think that the euro is here to stay.
1. However, in what form is debatable.
2. What countries (if any) will leave the euro currency and go back to their original currency?
3. Is the euro ready for a large bounce (capping yields on sovereign bonds)?

When we get all this bearish sentiment and everybody is selling the euro, it might be time for a large long bounce?

Maybe, but who knows. just my opinion.
  • #9,364
  • Edited 1:22am Sep 4, 2012 1:07am | Edited 1:22am
Quoting phil3526
In my opinion, I think that the euro is here to stay.
1. However, in what form is debatable.
2. What countries (if any) will leave the euro currency and go back to their original currency?
3. Is the euro ready for a large bounce (capping yields on sovereign bonds)?

When we get all this bearish sentiment and everybody is selling the euro, it might be time for a large long bounce?

Maybe, but who knows. just my opinion.
I agree the news has been so bad for so long but now sense a little bit of optimism.
Will it be enough to move this pair up a bit? i doubt it
  • #9,365
  • Sep 4, 2012 3:40am Sep 4, 2012 3:40am
Quoting brinks
I agree the news has been so bad for so long but now sense a little bit of optimism.
Will it be enough to move this pair up a bit? i doubt it
No. The GDP data has been totally disappointing if we consider trade balances, unemployment, KOF, PMI, retail sales, etc in past months. And what has happened? 3 pips up! Now given that deflation will disappear, the only indicator that could make "Hilldebrand" act would be unemployment rate... And with a lower than 5% rate there is no reason to overheat the economy. I have said Hilldebrand, because Jordan never will lift the cap. He hates the cap... specially against the euro!
  • #9,366
  • Sep 4, 2012 3:49am Sep 4, 2012 3:49am
Quoting qatar
No. The GDP data has been totally disappointing if we consider trade balances, unemployment, KOF, PMI, retail sales, etc in past months. And what has happened? 3 pips up! Now given that deflation will disappear, the only indicator that could make "Hilldebrand" act would be unemployment rate... And with a lower than 5% rate there is no reason to overheat the economy. I have said Hilldebrand, because Jordan never will lift the cap. He hates the cap... specially against the euro!
Yep can't argue with the 3pip spike

But if sentiment does start turning on the euro this thing may go up before a peg break or removal
  • #9,367
  • Sep 4, 2012 3:58am Sep 4, 2012 3:58am
Quoting qatar
No. The GDP data has been totally disappointing if we consider trade balances, unemployment, KOF, PMI, retail sales, etc in past months. And what has happened? 3 pips up! Now given that deflation will disappear, the only indicator that could make "Hilldebrand" act would be unemployment rate... And with a lower than 5% rate there is no reason to overheat the economy. I have said Hilldebrand, because Jordan never will lift the cap. He hates the cap... specially against the euro!
Deflation has not yet disappeared... Still a lot of price adjustment to come regarding EURO and CHF-prices. Recession just starting? Deflation-spiral ahead? solution higher floor?

I think there will soon be more uncertainty coming from the US, than EURO-Zone. What about US-Debt and its ceiling? Where is that topic at the moment? With the ongoing structural adjustments in EURO-Zone, and Mitt Romney as a new US-President with lower taxes, I see EURUSD more going in direction 1.40 than anywhere elese. but it's only my opinion.
  • #9,368
  • Sep 4, 2012 4:35am Sep 4, 2012 4:35am
the CPI results tomorrow will be interesting
  • #9,369
  • Sep 4, 2012 5:06am Sep 4, 2012 5:06am
Quoting Swissie
Deflation has not yet disappeared... Still a lot of price adjustment to come regarding EURO and CHF-prices. Recession just starting? Deflation-spiral ahead? solution higher floor?

I think there will soon be more uncertainty coming from the US, than EURO-Zone. What about US-Debt and its ceiling? Where is that topic at the moment? With the ongoing structural adjustments in EURO-Zone, and Mitt Romney as a new US-President with lower taxes, I see EURUSD more going in direction 1.40 than anywhere elese. but it's only my opinion.
Ok, EURUSD could go to 1,34-1,40, but mainly not because the euro value would increase (Eurozone crisis will be permanent unless they create a genuine political union or government debts disappear: actually the opposite will happen), but dollar value would decrease. Meanwhile Swiss franc value is increasing month after month with inflation (and ¿GDP?) differentials.

Swiss Franc value is increasing for low inflation and the strength of trade balance even with EURCHF at 1,20 in a global downturn during the period. And big players will continue to buy francs against euro (and others) waiting patiently for peg removal (GDP data today may have given a breath to SNB. But depending on inflation data tomorrow, EURCHF peg at 1,20 could be at risk again)
  • #9,370
  • Sep 4, 2012 5:15am Sep 4, 2012 5:15am
Quoting qatar
Ok, EURUSD could go to 1,34-1,40, but mainly not because the euro value would increase (Eurozone crisis will be permanent unless they create a genuine political union or government debts disappear: actually the opposite will happen), but dollar value would decrease. Meanwhile Swiss franc value is increasing month after month with inflation (and ¿GDP?) differentials.

Swiss Franc value is increasing for low inflation and the strength of trade balance even with EURCHF at 1,20 in a global downturn during the period. And big players will continue...
About the big players buying francs waiting for the floors removal, what kind of time frame do you think we would we be talking about? 1 year, 2 years, 3 years + ?

At what point do the SNB let the eurchf fall through the floor I think is the question?
  • #9,371
  • Sep 4, 2012 5:36am Sep 4, 2012 5:36am
Quoting phil3526
About the big players buying francs waiting for the floors removal, what kind of time frame do you think we would we be talking about? 1 year, 2 years, 3 years + ?

At what point do the SNB let the eurchf fall through the floor I think is the question?
Well, large Europeans investors have no hurry, banks with excess liquidity will wait the necessary time and Hedge Funds are accumulating francs against the euro but I don't believe they will late too much for a huge attack, given the lack of agressivity of SNB (it could be in 1 month, in 3... But we will see an attack with a 99% confidence )

I don't believe that even Jordan Knows when there's gonna be a policy change, so neither do I. The key is to guess that moment to avoid negative swaps, but reward will be high (or not, but the next movement, if not removing totally the cap, would be lowering it to 1,15-1,10- 1, being 1,10 the most likely, after free float option)
  • #9,372
  • Sep 4, 2012 6:55am Sep 4, 2012 6:55am
Anyone think if cpi is worse than expected tomorrow we may see a bit of movement.

i'm thinking of going long only small
  • #9,373
  • Sep 4, 2012 6:58am Sep 4, 2012 6:58am
Quoting qatar
Well, large Europeans investors have no hurry, banks with excess liquidity will wait the necessary time and Hedge Funds are accumulating francs against the euro but I don't believe they will late too much for a huge attack, given the lack of agressivity of SNB (it could be in 1 month, in 3... But we will see an attack with a 99% confidence )

I don't believe that even Jordan Knows when there's gonna be a policy change, so neither do I. The key is to guess that moment to avoid negative swaps, but reward will be high (or not, but the next movement,...
If Jordan and snb would think that they probably can't stand an HF-attack, they would have to let the cap go right now. Otherwise they have to be sure to sell 100'000'000'000'000 bio. of CHF... And i think they are... because CHF is overvalued... if EURO-Zone drowns, so does CH. But in the long run, there will be an improvement of the situation in EURO-Zone, because it seems that they are moving into a direction which leads to further integration, actually they have no option besides of going back to single currencies and all its related costs. For se tschermens:
http://www.n-tv.de/politik/Spanien-s...le7116706.html


And i think we can forget the lower cap because of a damage of snb's credibility. Either we have an EURCHF at around parity or lower (huge Deflation, recession, relocation of jobs, etc... or we have the 1.20 and the 100'000'000'000'000 bio. of FX-Reserves. I rather think we will keep the 1.20
  • #9,374
  • Sep 4, 2012 8:04am Sep 4, 2012 8:04am
Quoting Blue.Trader
I had the lowest point Since Last Sept at 1.19931 in Hotforex last night but my other broker was fine. Did anyone else experience it?
I'm with Hotforex also but I didn't get that in my chart. Lowest was 1.20005... Where did you get 1.19931?
  • #9,375
  • Sep 4, 2012 8:05am Sep 4, 2012 8:05am
Quoting Swissie
If Jordan and snb would think that they probably can't stand an HF-attack, they would have to let the cap go right now. Otherwise they have to be sure to sell 100'000'000'000'000 bio. of CHF... And i think they are... because CHF is overvalued... if EURO-Zone drowns, so does CH. But in the long run, there will be an improvement of the situation in EURO-Zone, because it seems that they are moving into a direction which leads to further integration, actually they have no option besides of going back to single currencies and all its related costs....
Central banks loses credibility continuously (SNB has done it before... decades ago). And SNB is not using verbal intervention anymore, therefore it is able to lower the cap to 1,10 without consequences. Or 1,15, etc. It would not be worse for SNB than current situation

Eurozone situation can improve in short term (too much hope?), but problems are here to stay (recession in Med countries may deepen). If situation worsens, there will be attacks, if situation improves, SNB will lower or abandon the peg. Is Switzerland expensive? Yes. Is franc overvalued? According to the market, and it is wright, not. Why? Balance of payment surplus, low ling term inflation, etc

And after last Jordan's words, the attack will become a reality. So I wonder the same than you: why should not let the pair go right now? This is the problem, nobody can't guarantee that Jordan won't surprise negatively to longs next meeting
  • #9,376
  • Sep 4, 2012 8:15am Sep 4, 2012 8:15am
Today's GDP data may be nothing much to us (3 pip spike), but it may mean a lot to SNB & the Swiss govt. A negative q/q GDP, coupled with poorer PMI & Retail sales, the former may lead Switzerland into a technical recession, defined as 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth.

This is the first quarter of, although small -0.1% GDP, but the next quarter will definately be worse. Switzerland is already feeling the heat of an overvalued CHF in the EZ. I bet we don't see much spike up as Spain, Greece, Italy are pouring money into Switzerland much faster than it can spike up.

But I think SNB will view these data especially GDP seriously. Tomorrow's CPI is the most important indicator for SNB as it points directly to price stability. If it's bad (worse-deflation) and coupled with poor GDP, SNB may do something this Sept 13th.
  • #9,377
  • Sep 4, 2012 8:19am Sep 4, 2012 8:19am
Quoting qatar
...........
And after last Jordan's words, the attack will become a reality. So I wonder the same than you: why should not let the pair go right now? This is the problem, nobody can't guarantee that Jordan won't surprise negatively to longs next meeting
I'm just putting in €100 to bet on this.
May look silly, but it's worth a try.
What do think of this sell stop strategy below?
I think many brokers won't be happy with this strategy of mine.
Attached Image
  • #9,378
  • Sep 4, 2012 9:04am Sep 4, 2012 9:04am
More and more brokers follow this madness.

Vantagefx on their website:

"Use the below form to request a leverage change to your Vantage FX metaTrader account.

**Please Note: If you are considering to trade EUR/CHF, due to the SNBC current restrictions on this currency pair your orders may not be accepted. This is a precautionary measure taken by us to protect our clients, as you may experience difficulty in managing risk due to the uncertainty of trading with this currency pair."
  • #9,379
  • Sep 4, 2012 9:31am Sep 4, 2012 9:31am
Quoting zweck
More and more brokers follow this madness.

Vantagefx on their website:

"Use the below form to request a leverage change to your Vantage FX metaTrader account.

**Please Note: If you are considering to trade EUR/CHF, due to the SNBC current restrictions on this currency pair your orders may not be accepted. This is a precautionary measure taken by us to protect our clients, as you may experience difficulty in managing risk due to the uncertainty of trading with this currency pair."

Precautionary to protect themselves more like
  • #9,380
  • Sep 4, 2012 9:52am Sep 4, 2012 9:52am
Does anybody know why there has been reported that big change in GDP? 3-year low? while the trade balance had shown that much improvement in this Quarter. I s it all because of overvalued CHF? or there are other measures involved?
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