EUR/CHF

I believe someone posted the email regarding Pepperstone reducing leverage to 1:25.. Which is 16x more assuming one was previously on max leverage of 1:400. Totally ECN..

Thanks for this and sorry for my ignorance, but what do you mean by "totally ECN"?

Not strange what brokers have done. All them will do the same. Now ECN or futures are the best option to trade with low leverage. But they too will increase margins. It will be more difficult to short, the best trade given the probability of reppegging at 1,10, 1,15, etc

I wonder how alexcee is getting on

Daily bias in USD / CHF downside, the current decline from 0.9971 is expected to continue towards 0.9420 key support level next. On the other hand, above 0.9635 will confirm the short term bottoming, which is possible with bullish convergence condition H4 MACD and would bring rebound back to 0.9799 resistance.

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forexindicatorbest.com

sarcasm. anyone knows what other broker i can shift my EURCHF longs to?

CitiFx, etc. But do You really expect that they will not raise margin requirements as well? And give all of them negative Swaps? EURCHF pair is dead. And in some months it will be removed. Profits will be in short position

Hi qatar

You dont see any chance of relief in the euro allowing for a sustained move up on this pair then?

I don't. Intrinsic Value of Swiss Franc actually it's below 1,20. Last year when EURUSD was at 1,40 EURCHF appreciated to 1,24 only because it was expected that Hilldebrand would rise the peg. Now it can't happen, but the opposite. Furthermore the euro has depreciated a lot and should depreciate further. But here hundreds of retailers still believe that they will become rich, when actually they'll be wiped out! Peg has been a nice chance for big sharks to load billions of francs, and they will earn billions when Franc appreciates. Who has been the counterparty to retail and SNB long positions in EURCHF, apart from some market makers that may not hedge all positions?

Fair points

Even if the rate of intervention continues to slow?
And Draghi brings his bond buying plan in

No, because given that hedge funds and banks, and also SNB, will buy francs in every spike (that unlikely will repeat), as last 6 months, and even more because now they Know someday peg will be removed. It's a sure bet for them. And every spike is a nice opportunity to buy francs and wait (to compensate negative forward contracts)

We will see

I still wouldnt want to be short here with a tight stop

Hi All..

I hope you enjoyed the spikes of EURCHF. Although I got the same mail from Pepperstone with the 1.25 leverage I can still buy on 1:400. I would like to share my thoughts. I do not want to be right or wrong, just discuss stuff. I am long on EURCHF with capital I am willing to loose with a margin call.

In my opinion the purpose of news and media is to manipulate public opinion. The fact that a news is sent out make people think in a special way and making enough people think a particular way makes a planned event to happen. Problem -> Reaction -> Solution. The news and rumor itself makes thing happen. So the establishment makes things happen by manipulating the public opinion in the first place, what is a tool.

When the 1.2 peg happened a year ago, it was told on the public radio that the peg can be also up to 1.4. If you check the daily chart on EURCHF, floors are 1.3 and 1.4.

The police force in Switzerland is hiring in advertisements on Facebook and local gossip papers. Why do they need increased law enforcement?

Prostitution is legal in Switzerland and the easiest way for many abroad girls to make more money is to enter this business. Once the daily wage is there, is sent home with Western Union. And calculation is made how much the CHF is worth in the local currency. A decision to continue this immoral job here or switch to another country.

Local rent price is increasing due to the massive influx of immigrants. There are contraction laws in Switzerland what space has to be kept between the houses and it is difficult to build new homes. These guys are not smart but causing problems and not caucasian types.

After the 1.2 peg Switzerland became practically an eurozone country. 3 years back then the Airport in Zuerich had many gates, passport controllers, enforced security. Flown back from Rostock Germany to Zuerich the officer waited until I pulled my swiss foreign ID card to send me through the immigration gate, my foreign passport was not enough. Now you show your boarding pass to a barcode reader and can walk freely. No enforced security, immigration or passport control. Only the metal detector stuff.

The margin call remembers me the precious metal manipulation, as a triggered mass sell lowered the price. The SNB is buying and selling EURCHF at the same time to keep the 1.2 peg. In the EURCHF case the SNB has to buy the EURCHF if the 1.2 peg needs to be kept on the selloff. The SNB has also massive EURCHF positions.

Will the SNB incur a loss long term? Stuff is priced in CHF in Switzerland… The margin increase makes me think that they do not want people to make money but the only way the SNB can make a profit is to raise the peg after buying back all the sold EURCHF caused by the margin call. Article about struggling SNB to make a profit: http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...ow-to-spend-it

They condemned the ex SNB presidents wife making insider trades see video (local gossip paper, not a $20 000 a year finance research):
http://www.blick.ch/news/wirtschaft/...id2016277.html
what makes me think that the public should not take action on these opportunities, but the insider finance elite does.

Hildebrand in the above post outed that in 5-10 years the swiss bank account game could be over.
http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/business...l?cid=33412340
If you speak French you can listen to the interview here:
http://www.rts.ch/video/info/journal...ildebrand.html

The SNB is planning to bring out new design of Franc notes, although delaying the show due to a technical problem. The technical problem seems to be crafted for me, but why the earth wants the SNB to make a new design of a banknote what is going to deceased soon? http://www.snb.ch/en/mmr/reference/p...0120209.en.pdf

This reuters article http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/0...8K33S820120903 brings up the following: strong franc is bad for the economic growth. If more swiss stuff needs to be sold, it is much easier with a weaker franc. Labour force and resources are priced in CHF.

The increasing number of immigrants pose a threat to the Swiss bloodline. If I check out the gossip magazines on the news shelf nothing shows a non white face. Native Swiss females are delicate, average hight. One surefire method keeping immigrants away is to make the swiss currency not so desirable. If they raise the peg to 1.3 or 1.4 after the first currency exchange the average joe thinks, I am better off working in Italy, Germany or France earning Euro and this way the influx can be stopped.

If the PIIGS are bailed out the immigrants should seek work there, not in abroad countries. There is the Swiss Youth demeaning work otherwise rumble in public places, one part of the enforced police hiring I think. The swiss pubic transport employs tons of Security People with bulletproof vests safeguarding the ticket control guys, a small army (10+) goes along when tickets are controlled. None of them being non white.

Pepperstone is now going with max leverage, a fresh reply: "We are monitoring the volatility in the markets and we reserve the right to change the leverage to 1:25 over the next few days. Please ensure that you have funds available in the account to avoid a margin call. "

Will obey.

My scenario: when the brokers start to enforce the margin call, EURCHF will drop. The employed algorithms will compensate, but can be that the price drops below 1.2. Due to economic reasons, SNB can intervene to 1.2 or more depending on the current turmoil. My trade would be is to get in after the initial selloff and follow with trailing stop around 200.

I would welcome perceptions and not evaluations. I am also excited how this evolves!

Happy Trading!

FX

Hi, great post, albeit slightly peppered with xenophobia. Just a question, you're planning to go long on EURCHF on 1:25 leverage? Isn't that an overkill?

Seperate question, anyone knows where I can buy reliable EURCHF options?

I had the lowest point Since Last Sept at 1.19931 in Hotforex last night but my other broker was fine. Did anyone else experience it?

1.19973 for me on pepperstone but not below 1.20 on my alpari uk account

If eurusd goes up to 1,40 in the next weeks or months, it means that usdchf will go down to 0,85.If euro appreciates in short time, it's possible to see some intervention in CHF and SNB can rise the eurchf peg. But if euro continues to depreciate, swiss franc floor will have more pressure

Swiss Q2 GDP -0.1% q/q, +0.5% y/y (ughh)
Written by Gerry Davies
September 4, 2012 at 05:47 GMT
Demonstrably weaker than Reuter’s median forecasts of +0.2%, +1.6% respectively.

Q1 data was also all reivised down

0655 GMT [Dow Jones] Swiss economy on the brink of recession says Julius Baer especially against the backdrop of a struggling euro zone. Chief economist Janwillem Acket says the contraction of Swiss GDP in 2Q is "significantly disappointing" and quite unexpected. "We have a black eye, let's hope it doesn't get worse," he says, adding that 3Q is already looking bleak. "Three months ago, the Swiss economy looked charmingly strong ... and now it is looking on the brink of recession." Acket also says the newly released data will take off some pressure from the Swiss National Bank as it defends the euro's minimum exchange rate it imposed against the Swiss franc. "Their policy remains challenging, but it is the sole policy and they are right to reconfirm it." ([email protected])

As I said yesterday come on how could they remove the floor in this environment, another quarter like that and Jordan will raise the floor, come on bears, please short the pair.

I dont see it getting to 1.40