Cable Update (GBPUSD)

My carry over trades
4x Short GU at 5822
2x Short GU at 5867
2x Long USD/Cad at 9855

Currently obviously my shorts are underwater but won't close them.If it hits 59 I will short more.
GU is just riding on EU wings and we will see major slide down on Euro next week.
This Friday drive was obviously fueled on rumors,and nothing more.Bernanke
is just a tool.

Bullish close on the Monthly and Weekly candles - these t/f's remaining in overall price action-fractal swing hi/lo analysis (opa) ranges with recent bullish sentiment (4th consecutive weekly candle close.) Dropping down to the daily and this t/f remains in a developing opa uptrend with 2 further fractal HL's this last week just closed although no HH yet after the b/o of the recent 5774 range hi. As Thursday's Daily candle was a master bearish engulfing of the previous 3 x candle bodies, so Friday's daily candle closed as a master bullish engulfing of the last 5 x candle bodies on that t/f...a bullish sign ? Friday's hi found supply in the previous Daily/4hr swing hi leading up to that last H on this Daily t/f at 5909. 4Hr remains is in a general opa uptrend although last 4hr candle close was bearish @ a 3rd fractal swing HH on this t/f.

All in all more bullish than bearish as at Friday's close on the t/f's discussed above.

G/L

aaa....I wrote I am sidelines till next week why should I bother with 50 pips up then 50 down then 50 up then to fall 30 again ?

I bet many bought and many sold and most of them ended in profit but at how much white hair cost ? that's why,better sidelines till the heat will pass.

now lines analysis which I am full of.

I might even post some charts on the forum even if I said I'll not post but here we go with full explanation.please take some time to read it properly and tell me what you think.I'll try to be as logic as possible in my explanation.

have a look at daily chart on an analysis I made on the 21st of June about GU.
I repeat daily chart.sold at the top,waiting for the retrace only to long again.look at the lines,look at the TP's

TP1 is 1.6014-15...how cool is that ?

how long did it take so far ? 2 months and still did not reach my TP1 !!!!!!!

will it reach it? I'm sure it will reach TP2 not only TP1 meaning 1.6250

will it go there ? well we have a trendline @ 1.6190 so till that point we should see it going.

how long? ....well depending on news.

Now have a look at the Monthly chart.I posted this one last week or this week.simple chart.

TP 1.7333.how long.....well If I remember well I gave a time span at the start of the year as in 2 years...I'm pretty sure I gave an accurate time span back then but I am too lazy to look for the post.maybe somebody else has the time to do it.

so 1 year and 4 months to go to that TP

and now comes the question.hold on to your seats.

am I amble to keep a trade for so long ? guess not.why is that ? coz people need to eat from time to time....meaning trading for a living...

so even if long term view is this one I cannot afford it.I need to withdraw money meaning I need to open and close trades faster than 2-48 months.

more than that,if I would have held a long for example based on daily and entered long @ 1.5770 and price dropped to 1.54 would I have had the balls to hold a 1 lot trade for such DD ? or 1.8 lots as I usually use for sure trades ?

I will make a calculation to put it easier.1 lot @ 300 pips DD means 3k red number.1.8 lots means 5.4k red number....or let's say a yearly salary in some of the EZ countries.

who has the balls to do this ...no matter the balance,such a big DD is lack of respect for everything surrounding us as in food,shelter,even money.


now that we talked about longs let's talk about shorts.if on a daily basis I make 100-160 pips scalping M1-H1 that takes me to 2000 pips per month.

the truth is that I make more than this but anyway,why should I wait for 1.7333 meaning 2000 pips from GU low and 2 years ????

so as soon as I soon a short opportunity I take it.I still have in sight 1.5550-1.5490 so as soon as I see a short opportunity I'll ride it down later to load long again there.

Now logics behind trendlines and fibos and other indies...
they simply guide us but they are not 100% sure.nor the history dictates the future as if it were this way this world would be a better place.

Simple:we had wars,they were terrible we said we'll never do it but we have them every year.
we have the floods,we say we'll prepare better next year and we're submerged once again.
we loose money holding red positions trading and as soon as we clear them we say never to do it again but next day we do it again.

we will never have the past as future.we can use it as a guide,we can tell our nephews but never take it for granted as long as we deal with the human mind.

now will it go to 1.7333 ? I am confident it will....but at what cost.

or....what if tmr UK will have an earthquake of 8 and 50% of the island will be whiped out? will it still go to 1.73 ?or 1.60 ?

if tmr UK will be attacked by USA for the cheddar cheese reserves will it still be 1.73 ?

if tmr UK will be schorched by the sun and no crops will be for this year will it still be 1.73 ?


what I try to say is that the more time you allow a trade to develop the more bad things can throw it on the opposite side ans whipe out all the indies used or lines or whatever you might use.

the S and R explanations I gave it in another post but probably nobody bothered to read it.

Nobody trades Forex for LONG term meaning months and yrs.Swap alone will eat most if any profit and if you are in the red even worse.
They are stocks,bonds for Long term investment.Yes its called investment for a reason.
Forex is fast speculative instrument and by nature one must be unbiased,quick to adapt to new battlefield and fight.
You staying on the sidelines does not make you a hero.Don't play don't rip the benefits.Simple as that.

huh ? meaning you trade news ? you got balls of steel mate.

you say forex is not for long term ? right,some traders here are trading for less than 10 pips a day....trading news ? if 10 pips is the profit what about the SL ? acc to a simple MM rule it should be at least same as in 1-1 RR so....10 pips SL ,during news???? just look at EU and GU on friday 60 up 60 down.where's the rip here ? I guess on the banker's side or the inside traders.

yeah,I am a fuckin hero for not trading them

if ones were lucky and closed either short or long in profit they were just lucky.
at one point all this luck will end and a bad coin flip will be a bad coin flip


.....unless you don't use a SL which is perfect for all kind of trading

you could pick a side for NFP this week as well.and for the 12th of sept.see how far you can risk and rip.

and what do you mean bonds as investments ?

never traded them never will,never trust them.

what's the diff between a bad bond that will be cut or never paid and a forex long term ? none both end up in red and for both you need to pray to come back.

anyway I thing you got wrong the whole message and explanation.please read it again carefully as I first stated

just checking

Great choice of music

I'm aliiiveeeeeeee

why Red, what you been doing?

[quote=redbeben;5976903]aaa....I wrote I am sidelines till next week why should I bother with 50 pips up then 50 down then 50 up then to fall 30 again ?

I bet many bought and many sold and most of them ended in profit but at how much white hair cost ? that's why,better sidelines till the heat will pass.


Wow...as an M5 trader could i recommend some hair dye?

Two and a half years ago you were on a demo M5 . You didnt seem to like the heat then because ...:

.....Two months later you were trading live long term , as you said.

Are you now arguing with yourself or have i re-entered this thread in a state of total confusion?

The heat is always on, it never passes whatever the T/F or whether you are trading demo or real micro lots...or adding to a positve , calculated position., or are sufficiently experienced to trade with confidence at a min. £3.00 pp.

No such thing as no heat mate.

Greetings all,

Still holding from last week onto those shorts, feelings have not changed and following on from friday i see nothing to suggest i wont be able to trigger the profits on these at 1.58

I have total 6 Shorts on GU
Everything is lining up for healthy profit taking.
My TDI is showing cross and my Kaufman3 which I love is about to confirm the TDI
I use both. I also strongly suggest getting long on USD/Cad PA will reach 9920
I have 2 massive buys at 9850

same here Short 6x

I like this version of Heikenashi which has trading zones built in.Grey candles are no trading.While I don't blindly follow any indicator I do pay attention to them for confirmation.I like the idea of grey no trading zone or "killing zones" I am uploading this indi.

i think one of the first things to learn in trading is when not to trade. I know when i first started i felt like i needed to have something on the whole time.

If in doubt, just stay out...

A break above 1.5915 we see 1.6032, a break below 1.5805 we see 1.5641

Hey PoundTrader....

Agree with the 1.5915......but to the downside I am more in the 1.5825 - 1.5830 range....if it break there I see further break down to the 1.5650 range.

Nice to see you presence here.....I have been quite myself.

Just doing my thing.

Cheers -

Faller.

Lets see what Ann - Ga - La .....Mur - la - kal does with Draghi....

squeezing farts can move the markets.

Last comment unless there is some conversation in here....


With all of the billions or trillions of dollars that have been thrown at the world........things are still screwed.......China Manufacturing PMI has not been this low since around the time of the crash............so has the money throw fest really helped?

I believe they will actually let shit hit the fan.....let economics actually do what they are suppose to do....ie - supply and demand.....not this BS fake money money money.....to pump things up to where they should not be...

Things need to get worse before they can get better......sugar coating things works for a while......but come one......QE 14 coming?????

Just thoughts.....

Faller.