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  • #5,301
  • Aug 25, 2012 12:25pm Aug 25, 2012 12:25pm
so is this a "strictly one-side" pattern?

meaning if tp ratio is 10000X of risk, and it will work out 1/10001? or at that level, the pattern is no longer there?


Quoting Barbossa
Turns out that aiming for 1:1 R:R usually has about 50% win rate. Aiming for 2x the risk usually works out 1 out of 3 attempts. Aiming for 3x the risk - 1 out of 4. Notice the pattern?
  • #5,302
  • Aug 25, 2012 1:52pm Aug 25, 2012 1:52pm
Quoting charvo
meaning if tp ratio is 10000X of risk, and it will work out 1/10001?
I've never actually tested with such R:R values, partially because I also do not have enough historical data to make a statistically significant test. But I would guess so. My point is not about chasing extremely large R:R-s, it's about not trying to predict the market and following it instead. If you set a fixed TP, you're basically making a prediction that the price is going to reach it. Which, in my experience, usually works out in such a way that in the long run you lose 1x spread average per trade. If you follow the market, it doesn't make any sense to set a TP. Just enter and see what happens, as long as you're on the right side of the movement. Close the losers quickly, let the winners run. Then follow the market again, when the winners stall and lose their spirit for running. I would not go as far as to claim this is the right way to trade, or even a right way, but it does seem a sound approach to me. If you disagree, please share your thoughts on the matter, I'm open to a discussion and I'd be happy to learn something new.

Sincerely,
Barbossa
  • #5,303
  • Aug 25, 2012 4:01pm Aug 25, 2012 4:01pm
Quoting Barbossa
My point is not about chasing extremely large R:R-s, it's about not trying to predict the market and following it instead. If you set a fixed TP, you're basically making a prediction that the price is going to reach it. Which, in my experience, usually works out in such a way that in the long run you lose 1x spread average per trade. If you follow the market, it doesn't make any sense to set a TP. Just enter and see what happens, as long as you're on the right side of the movement. Close the losers quickly, let the winners run. Then follow the market again, when the winners stall and lose their spirit for running.
Great post Barbossa; I agree completely. To most traders that probably sounds too simple and therefore incorrect. Oh well.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #5,304
  • Aug 25, 2012 6:13pm Aug 25, 2012 6:13pm
I think Graeme closes a few of his trades when his earlier trades start going BE.

He, however, would have sent new scouts into the market, as stated by him.
Yes, I do enjoy eating bananas. Very much.
  • #5,305
  • Aug 25, 2012 7:11pm Aug 25, 2012 7:11pm
I am curious, anybody taken Graeme's 6 month 3x20 challenge? What were your experiences...
  • #5,306
  • Aug 26, 2012 2:36pm Aug 26, 2012 2:36pm
101% with you, Toe.
I quit this thread long time ago. This "diversification" thing just made no sense to me. How on earth can you stack long and short the same pair and not lose your shirt, beginning with the brokers' spreads? Actually this is contrary to true diversification, that is putting one's eggs in different baskets.
Every body who says could trade this way with profit is a liar.


Quoting ToeCutter
I always had small, lingering doubts about his story, his experience, the whole "Joe" thing (it was almost funny how “Marion” registered and dropped in for one post to validate the story), and his "I am a man of my word - I do everything I say I will do" promise of "the book". When "Joe" dropped by, my bullshit-o-meter redlined. THE BOOK is where?

Be honest, there are some glaring inconsistencies in his story. Have any of you read his posts on other threads prior to his starting this one? It is enlightening if you do so, and...
Patience is magic
  • #5,307
  • Aug 26, 2012 4:07pm Aug 26, 2012 4:07pm
The main question I am asking myself based on Graeme's insights is the following: "How likely is it to meet a predefined target of a 1000 pips at least twice a year". Lets suppose a $300 micro account. Two micro lot entries at a time on EurUsd. Stop loss of 10 pips on average per entry. Assume 100 entries in total.

1 success = 1% success rate => 0,67% p.a
2 success = 2% success rate => 68,0% p.a
3 success = 3% success rate => 135,3% p.a

This excludes swap. Over the last 7 years I could count at least 20 runs between major lines (1.30 1.40 etc) I think this is within the realm of possibility, but would require being very selective in entries and guarding against over trading, such as on daily basis. On certain optimal days, however you might want to take a few attempts to let one stick. This would kind of be a fail your way to success approach and require guts of steel.
Much depend on luck, but the more you practice the luckier you get! NT & GP
  • #5,308
  • Aug 27, 2012 1:28am Aug 27, 2012 1:28am
Folks this is one of the best sites on FF, Graeme is like Strat he wants you to think for yourself http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=155459 and all he has done is pointed and guided us onto a path, the secptics and nay sayers wander from that path. but there are some of us, like myself and No1optimist, who have sought out mentors and combined the knowledge shared on both of these sites.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...29#post5923029

Knock the site all you like, but for me it has been life changing.
Graeme where ever you are, I hope you are in good health and thank you for sharing.
  • #5,309
  • Aug 27, 2012 2:18am Aug 27, 2012 2:18am
Quoting Money Magnet
Folks this is one of the best sites on FF, Graeme is like Strat he wants you to think for yourself http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=155459 and all he has done is pointed and guided us onto a path, the secptics and nay sayers wander from that path. but there are some of us, like myself and No1optimist, who have sought out mentors and combined the knowledge shared on both of these sites.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...29#post5923029

Knock the site all you like, but for me it has been life changing.
Graeme...
Well said.

OLu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #5,310
  • Aug 27, 2012 4:30am Aug 27, 2012 4:30am
In my opinion, I ignore all comments that contain a blatant plug for a (for profit?)website-- isn't that against FF's rules? (if not, it should be)

Quoting Money Magnet
Folks this is one of the best sites on FF, Graeme is like Strat he wants you to think for yourself http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=155459 and all he has done is pointed and guided us onto a path, the secptics and nay sayers wander from that path. but there are some of us, like myself and No1optimist, who have sought out mentors and combined the knowledge shared on both of these sites.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...29#post5923029

Knock the site all you like, but for me it has been life changing.
Graeme...
  • #5,311
  • Edited 7:46am Aug 27, 2012 7:12am | Edited 7:46am
Quoting gssintokyo
In my opinion, I ignore all comments that contain a blatant plug for a (for profit?)website-- isn't that against FF's rules? (if not, it should be)
That type of logic will fail you in your trading endevours!
The fact is, you take it as a plug, I take it as sharing and showing what is possible.
I have no benefit in sharing what has helped my trading, the the two sites have.
The choice is yours.
People will keep wandering from thread to thread, one day they will get it!
IMHO the black box / Holy grail is avalible, just go and stand in front of your mirror!
do your self a favour go and read no1optimists posts on strats thread, you will be amazed, he like me has educated himself from both sites.

P.S. If the modorators feel it is a plug, they can remove the post, I only refer to this site and Strat's FF site. so no rule broken IMO
  • #5,312
  • Aug 27, 2012 5:16pm Aug 27, 2012 5:16pm
I bow to your superior knowledge-- I must confess I haven't really researched how far FF will allow a plug to go-- you obviously have so I am sure you're right....
Quoting Money Magnet
That type of logic will fail you in your trading endevours!
The fact is, you take it as a plug, I take it as sharing and showing what is possible.
I have no benefit in sharing what has helped my trading, the the two sites have.
The choice is yours.
People will keep wandering from thread to thread, one day they will get it!
IMHO the black box / Holy grail is avalible, just go and stand in front of your mirror!
do your self a favour go and read no1optimists posts on strats thread, you will be amazed, he like me has educated himself from both sites....
  • #5,313
  • Sep 13, 2012 4:12pm Sep 13, 2012 4:12pm
Quoting Money Magnet
Folks this is one of the best sites on FF, Graeme is like Strat he wants you to think for yourself http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=155459 and all he has done is pointed and guided us onto a path, the secptics and nay sayers wander from that path. but there are some of us, like myself and No1optimist, who have sought out mentors and combined the knowledge shared on both of these sites.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...29#post5923029

Knock the site all you like, but for me it has been life changing.
Graeme...
good thread, thanks for sharing
  • #5,314
  • Sep 15, 2012 4:33am Sep 15, 2012 4:33am
Quoting Muntu
101% with you, Toe.
I quit this thread long time ago. This "diversification" thing just made no sense to me. How on earth can you stack long and short the same pair and not lose your shirt, beginning with the brokers' spreads? Actually this is contrary to true diversification, that is putting one's eggs in different baskets.
Every body who says could trade this way with profit is a liar.
You know, I started a little experiment about a month ago. I picked a random entry system, coded an EA for it and threw in some basic rules on breaking even. Then I added some rules that prevented the EA from trading too much and let it run on a demo account. I'll attach the full statement in Monday. Do you care to make a guess on the results?
  • #5,315
  • Sep 15, 2012 5:28am Sep 15, 2012 5:28am
Quoting Barbossa
You know, I started a little experiment about a month ago. I picked a random entry system, coded an EA for it and threw in some basic rules on breaking even. Then I added some rules that prevented the EA from trading too much and let it run on a demo account. I'll attach the full statement in Monday. Do you care to make a guess on the results?
15%?
  • #5,316
  • Sep 16, 2012 2:45am Sep 16, 2012 2:45am
Quoting Barbossa
You know, I started a little experiment about a month ago. I picked a random entry system, coded an EA for it and threw in some basic rules on breaking even. Then I added some rules that prevented the EA from trading too much and let it run on a demo account. I'll attach the full statement in Monday. Do you care to make a guess on the results?

I have seen 100% over a 3month period on closed positions and 393% if open postions where included.
  • #5,317
  • Sep 17, 2012 2:02am Sep 17, 2012 2:02am
To summarize - around -10% in balance and +30% in equity. This includes a few partial closes, which are done "when time seemed right" - probably meaning they are far from optimal. I'm really curious to see the numbers after another month.

Sincerely,
Barbossa
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip statement.zip   26 KB | 534 downloads
  • #5,318
  • Sep 17, 2012 2:53am Sep 17, 2012 2:53am
The article has really peaks my interest. I am going to share your article and hold checking for brand spanking new information.
  • #5,319
  • Sep 19, 2012 7:56am Sep 19, 2012 7:56am
Quoting Money Magnet
I have seen 100% over a 3month period on closed positions and 393% if open postions where included.
I don't care what everybody says; I know it is working and I know it works for me
http://mediaog.capzles.com/5ef516bc-...7d5012b4f6.gif
Graeme turned quality of my knowledge into quantity of money. That is the point.
Before I met this forum, I was struggling with everyday wins and losses hopelessly thinking that making 50 points every day will make me rich. Now, I make 1000+ pips profit a month on a single pair and I see more room for improvement.
I tried diversifying and it didn't work for me, so I stopped. I am better at picking up new trends, so I'd stick to what I do better.
True knowledge is knowing that you know nothing. Socrates.
  • #5,320
  • Sep 19, 2012 11:40am Sep 19, 2012 11:40am
I did something similar actually

i backtest EURUSD for longer period, 3 months~1 year (recommended, if interested). the ea will enter every round number, with 100 pip stoploss, but no TP target.

the equity curve can rise to shocking height, yes; but can also drop to lethal bottom. but it is not consistent (without DD), in other words, the equity curve simply looks similar to the EURUSD price chart.

at the end of day, you (yes, you, not the PC/system) still have to decide where to exit (well, diversify maybe).

what i guess that the most important thing for us readers of this thread to know is that Graeme simply has an edge in his market reading/trading (predict where it goes and trade accordingly). his mindset (let profit run) is only his preferences that I do agree with. if you or me have his reading/trading skill, you or me can also make a fortune by tp 5 pip and sl 20 pips.


Quoting Barbossa
To summarize - around -10% in balance and +30% in equity. This includes a few partial closes, which are done "when time seemed right" - probably meaning they are far from optimal. I'm really curious to see the numbers after another month.

Sincerely,
Barbossa
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