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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #322,481
  • Edited 4:59am Aug 23, 2012 4:49am | Edited 4:59am
Quoting Freshpips
Your more than welcome, it was very educational. Lets be honest, Im here not to follow, but to learn from the more experienced traders such as yourself, so any tips/advice/experience I can gain from such journals is very beneficial to my long-term progress...

"shooting for 1.64-1.6450..slightly longer term.. for the bull run"

With regards to this post from yourself, there is no doubt bulls are in overall control here IMO, add that to the fact 1.5770 was blown out and that was a level I had been keeping an eye on... But answer me this please,...
this is actually a very good trade..1.59 is good resistance and the trade u place is good..u have to look at the dynamics of the market..many will short where u have..and price will fall

this will make others short as they see a reaction (myself was extremely tempted to short here) however this area then becomes a target for the big guns..They know people are short - and they will likely target these shorts.

so what id have done is wait for price to take those shorts out and then look at PA on 4hr rejecting 1.59..only then, would i consider shorting potentially to 1.58 or lower..it depends on the reaction.

but looking at the bigger picture on monthly price is in a range 154- 1.64 ish area

1.54 area is the base 1.64 ish is the top..we are simply i feel bouncing between the too.
monthly main move is up..rejecting the bear monthly candle, weekly is bullish and dailly is bullish (not much selling activity)so i remain long

Quoting nAVIN2007
dont worry if u saw my positions ud laugh..this should make u smile
see this chart
  • #322,482
  • Aug 23, 2012 5:15am Aug 23, 2012 5:15am
Quoting nAVIN2007
this is actually a very good trade..1.59 is good resistance and the trade u place is good..u have to look at the dynamics of the market..many will short where u have..and price will fall

this will make others short as they see a reaction (myself was extremely tempted to short here) however this area then becomes a target for the big guns..They know people are short - and they will likely target these shorts.

so what id have done is wait for price to take those shorts out and then look at PA on 4hr rejecting 1.59..only then, would i consider...

Thanks Nav, appreciate your feedback very much.

One more question, you advised you would have waited for price to take out the hoards of shortsellers from the 1.5900 level, where would you have considered opening a position if you had been looking to short? Would you have had a level in mind or purley act on PA? Alot of guys on here were suggesting 1.60 but that would have completely ruined my R:R based on my tp? But then again, 1.60 would be abother level Id assume traders, and especially retail traders, would have been looking to short from so back to square 1!
  • #322,483
  • Aug 23, 2012 5:21am Aug 23, 2012 5:21am
I am so glad to see how many bulls won yesterday.I've seen it before with some smart guys and now I see it again.Don't get me wrong,I was stopped on my short and got on longs so covered all loss but I really hate when some smart guys...on the verge of sell or buy are just lucky when market is pushed by news and later they come back and cock around ''told you told you''

oh boy....this is 50% winning ratio if we base al`trades on the news luck...

stop commenting and start posting charts on your buy moves,and maybe before the move not after

oh boy,this thread is lower now.
  • #322,484
  • Aug 23, 2012 5:31am Aug 23, 2012 5:31am
Quoting Freshpips
Thanks Nav, appreciate your feedback very much.

One more question, you advised you would have waited for price to take out the hoards of shortsellers from the 1.5900 level, where would you have considered opening a position if you had been looking to short? Would you have had a level in mind or purley act on PA? Alot of guys on here were suggesting 1.60 but that would have completely ruined my R:R based on my tp? But then again, 1.60 would be abother level Id assume traders, and especially retail traders, would have been looking to short from...
it all depend on PA u can enter just like that but u need a trendline which confluence 1.5991 area i would try something like that potentially..confluence with round number and trendline..thats the sort of thing i look at..

the trade i have is completely based on candle stick formations and this is 85% of the base behind my trading
so PA pattern formation around these area is the thing that make me push my buttons

i seriously try and be patient..and wait for things to line up..

in the situation yur talking about..i would want to see price attack 1.5910..and move quick to 1.5935 area...then i would sell for potentially 1.59 and place trade BE, hoping for the best..this is the sort of aggressive trading i would try if i wasnt working but unfortunately i dont have this luxury as i will be at work soon..so its a no go!
  • #322,485
  • Aug 23, 2012 5:36am Aug 23, 2012 5:36am
Quoting nAVIN2007
it all depend on PA u can enter just like that but u need a trendline which confluence 1.5991 area i would try something like that potentially..confluence with round number and trendline..thats the sort of thing i look at..

the trade i have is completely based on candle stick formations and this is 85% of the base behind my trading
so PA pattern formation around these area is the thing that make me push my buttons

i seriously try and be patient..and wait for things to line up..

OK will see how my current cable short plays out, and remain on the sidelines before looking for my next position...

Many thanks Nav
  • #322,486
  • Aug 23, 2012 5:38am Aug 23, 2012 5:38am
Quoting Freshpips
OK will see how my current cable short plays out, and remain on the sidelines before looking for my next position...

Many thanks Nav

welcome
  • #322,487
  • Aug 23, 2012 5:50am Aug 23, 2012 5:50am
Quoting xtrade
just to reiterate the good parts
other good parts

first comes the news later comes the move.if no qe no bulls and pair would have dipped same amount takiing it to 1.56-57 later to be pushed lower.

If price would have moved like this before then i would trust the profets of long...but it didn't

like all moves it needs a catalyst which can push it up or down.

Don't want to give any examples here on how opinion changed just like that...
  • #322,488
  • Aug 23, 2012 5:55am Aug 23, 2012 5:55am
Quoting redbeben
other good parts

first comes the news later comes the move.if no qe no bulls and pair would have dipped same amount takiing it to 1.56-57 later to be pushed lower.

If price would have moved like this before then i would trust the profets of long...but it didn't

like all moves it needs a catalyst which can push it up or down.

Don't want to give any examples here on how opinion changed just like that...
so what is long term trading..guessing?
  • #322,489
  • Aug 23, 2012 6:05am Aug 23, 2012 6:05am
Quoting redbeben
I am so glad to see how many bulls won yesterday.I've seen it before with some smart guys and now I see it again.Don't get me wrong,I was stopped on my short and got on longs so covered all loss but I really hate when some smart guys...on the verge of sell or buy are just lucky when market is pushed by news and later they come back and cock around ''told you told you''

oh boy....this is 50% winning ratio if we base al`trades on the news luck...

stop commenting and start posting charts on your buy moves,and maybe before the move not...
It's been bullish for over a month now red, not just yesterday. And I honestly see cable testing 1.6020/50 before stalling. Here's a chart, before & after

Quoting wormboy
That bounce on the D1 rising ltl is the only reason why I bought.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gud1a.gif Size: 13 KB
Thank You
  • #322,490
  • Aug 23, 2012 6:08am Aug 23, 2012 6:08am
Cable is running into some resistance at the 100 sma @ 1.5910 area.
Still holding my long from 1.5768 at this point until friday, when Spain is expected to ask for money.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #322,491
  • Aug 23, 2012 6:13am Aug 23, 2012 6:13am
Quoting nAVIN2007
so what is long term trading..guessing?
IMHO, long or short term, ALL trading is guessing. That's why we all try to find that "edge" so we can hopefully "guess" right more often than wrong.

For traders who know what their looking at.....

Long term provides more data and thus a higher "probability" the "guess" is correct and is typically used by traders with A) larger accounts, B) Larger stops, C) looking for bigger moves over a larger range.

Short term has less data and is therefore slightly less reliable but normally we're dealing with a smaller range, smaller positions and looking for smaller moves. The "guessing" gets a bit more difficult but....

In the end it's all relative as the concept remains the same but, it's still guessing over all.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #322,492
  • Aug 23, 2012 6:19am Aug 23, 2012 6:19am
The daily chart shows a break of cluster sma resistance and is now re-testing that resistance-turned support area. The 61 fib is providing res above on first attempt.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable daily.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #322,493
  • Aug 23, 2012 6:29am Aug 23, 2012 6:29am
The 4 hour chart shows a bullish engulfing candle 5 candles back. The close of that candle is acting as support for now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable 4 hour.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #322,494
  • Aug 23, 2012 6:40am Aug 23, 2012 6:40am
Quoting XTrade
Why, why short, if the pair is trending up??????????? to catch a few small pips on a measly retrace>>>

C'mON on a great day cable can blast 250 pips north.

Impatient is right.

Jeese.

One word: LIBOR
  • #322,495
  • Aug 23, 2012 6:47am Aug 23, 2012 6:47am
The midpoint of that engulfing candle is around 1.5830 or so. as long as price is trading above 5830, then the bullish engulfing candle remains in control.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable 4 hour.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #322,496
  • Aug 23, 2012 6:52am Aug 23, 2012 6:52am
The hourly chart shows the green 22 sma holding as support, combined with the close price of this chart's previous engulfing candle.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable hourly.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #322,497
  • Aug 23, 2012 6:56am Aug 23, 2012 6:56am
Quoting ovaforty
The midpoint of that engulfing candle is around 1.5830 or so. as long as price is trading above 5830, then the bullish engulfing candle remains in control.


Which is precisely the level I was looking at last night for a possible retrace. But unless the BS news has some effect, I don't think it has the steam to get there. I may have to close my 5892 short soon.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu_1h.gif Size: 25 KB
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #322,498
  • Aug 23, 2012 6:59am Aug 23, 2012 6:59am
Quoting albchr
IMHO, long or short term, ALL trading is guessing. That's why we all try to find that "edge" so we can hopefully "guess" right more often than wrong.

For traders who know what their looking at.....

Long term provides more data and thus a higher "probability" the "guess" is correct and is typically used by traders with A) larger accounts, B) Larger stops, C) looking for bigger moves over a larger range.

Short term has less data and is therefore slightly less reliable but normally we're dealing with a smaller range, smaller positions...
i guess so..but i think its about find the probable direction..they arent equally weighted i dont think..but i get the jist of what yur saying and theres a part of me which agrees but im not completely comfortable with it

i dont like gambling..rolf
  • #322,499
  • Aug 23, 2012 7:03am Aug 23, 2012 7:03am
buy on a brreak
Attached Image
  • #322,500
  • Aug 23, 2012 7:09am Aug 23, 2012 7:09am
Quoting redbeben
other good parts

first comes the news later comes the move.if no qe no bulls and pair would have dipped same amount takiing it to 1.56-57 later to be pushed lower.

If price would have moved like this before then i would trust the profets of long...but it didn't

like all moves it needs a catalyst which can push it up or down.

Don't want to give any examples here on how opinion changed just like that...
Red, first of all, let me say that I admire and respect your analysis and ability to read PA and have read a lot of your posts.

But isn't trading all about individual views and opinions and the ability to read reversals? The trader who was short from 1.60 - 1.54 can be the trader long on the road back up.

See earlier post and chart for my decision for being long based on the H4 trend channel and so far the week has been kind.

Being a daily trader, I am a little nervous about entering a further long at this point because the general rules of PA say that price has to move both ways regardless of trend.

I can see resistance at 61.8 FIBO (Daily) and kijun sen on h4 at 1.5793 but alternatively the top resistance channel which has been broken this morning may also now turn to become support.

So, I am awaiting further clearer signals before deciding if trend will continue or reverse and placing my next trade.

and I will need to see a LL before considering going short or the next HL before going long.

regards
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