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EUR/CHF

  • #9,101
  • Aug 15, 2012 6:25am Aug 15, 2012 6:25am
Quoting brinks
Does anyone think the euro as a currency will collapse?

Will the euro zone countries go back to their original currencies?

As someone who is long on this pair and as long as the floor is in place it looks like the biggest risk is a complete collapse of the euro.
1. no, it will not collapse... maybe it's going to be restructured, but EUR is likely to remain.

2. Some probably will. for example cyprus

3. you're right, but also inflation in CH
  • #9,102
  • Aug 15, 2012 7:27am Aug 15, 2012 7:27am
Quoting Swissie
1. no, it will not collapse... maybe it's going to be restructured, but EUR is likely to remain.

2. Some probably will. for example cyprus

3. you're right, but also inflation in CH
yes i was forgetting about inflation.
  • #9,103
  • Aug 15, 2012 11:39am Aug 15, 2012 11:39am
I don't know if euro will collapse but i don't believe the problem of euro zone solves soon. why? the northern countries of euro zone dont want that this situation get better. why?

1-There is capital flight from south of Europe to north
2-The northern European countries can finance their debt with negative interest rates
3-euro goes down against other currencies without QE and german export industry can export easily

So the euro problems will continue for years and there will be more pressure to swiss franc and its floor
  • #9,104
  • Aug 16, 2012 2:05am Aug 16, 2012 2:05am
Quoting alesss
I don't know if euro will collapse but i don't believe the problem of euro zone solves soon. why? the northern countries of euro zone dont want that this situation get better. why?

1-There is capital flight from south of Europe to north
2-The northern European countries can finance their debt with negative interest rates
3-euro goes down against other currencies without QE and german export industry can export easily

So the euro problems will continue for years and there will be more pressure to swiss franc and its floor
thats right. but somewhen, the northern countries have to commit themselves to the EUR and the southern countries, because it seems that the situation of the southern countries are getting worse and worse. So if they want to keep on having a benefit out of a situation with weak partners, they have to keep them in the construction. If they would form a EUR-Zone with only strong partners, the currency would rise and the export would go down.
  • #9,105
  • Aug 16, 2012 4:09am Aug 16, 2012 4:09am
ZEW -33.3 better than expected but im guessing still not a good number.

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - SNB sight deposits increased last week by only 1.3bn CHF, compared to a weekly increase of about 10-15bn in recent weeks and according to UBS analysts this can have three reasons.

"First, the fact that investors trust in the SNB floor and cut their bets that it breaks. Second, statements by ECB president Draghi have relaxed the pressure on the EUR. Third, thinner trading volume during the summer holidays enabled the SNB to use a smaller intervention volume", they explain. "Overall, we see EURCHF continuing to trade close to 1.20".
  • #9,106
  • Edited 5:53am Aug 17, 2012 5:35am | Edited 5:53am
I'm guessing everyone has lost the will to live on this pair

Is there anybody on this thread who still thinks we will get a sustained move up in the near future i'm not talking a 5 min 60 pip spike but a move up over time?

I have decided to wait until the end of september if there is no movement by then i will cut my loses and run.

somebody said and i cant remember who they are expecting 1.25 to 1.30 by year end but i just cant see what the catalyst for this would be.
  • #9,107
  • Aug 17, 2012 6:24am Aug 17, 2012 6:24am
Quoting brinks
I'm guessing everyone has lost the will to live on this pair

Is there anybody on this thread who still thinks we will get a sustained move up in the near future i'm not talking a 5 min 60 pip spike but a move up over time?
I think the game is only beginning. EURCHF will gradually rise from now - also seeing that SNB has bought lesser EURs over the weeks (in general) and especially last week.

Consider this news...

Forex Flash: CHF no longer a safe haven – ANZ
Fri, Aug 17 2012, 09:06 GMT | FXstreet.com

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Indications from euro area policymakers in recent weeks are that both the ECB and the EU’s bailout fund will be able to buy the debt of peripheral sovereigns in the euro zone. German premier Merkel last night signaled that her government is “in line” with the ECB’s recent policy posturing.....

.......One important consequence of less pressure on the EUR is that flows into the EUR/CHF have slowed. “We expect that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is therefore engaged in fewer sales of francs and fewer purchases of euros.” Salter adds.

So, it is best to reload as much as possible and wait for the slow ascend...
But again, I'm not 100% sure this gradual weakening of CHF will happen when SNB reduces printing CHFs, but I think when the pressure on the floor is over, it must rise over time.
  • #9,108
  • Aug 17, 2012 6:28am Aug 17, 2012 6:28am
Quoting brinks
I'm guessing everyone has lost the will to live on this pair

Is there anybody on this thread who still thinks we will get a sustained move up in the near future i'm not talking a 5 min 60 pip spike but a move up over time?

I have decided to wait until the end of september if there is no movement by then i will cut my loses and run.

somebody said and i cant remember who they are expecting 1.25 to 1.30 by year end but i just cant see what the catalyst for this would be.
I think a catalyst that would be great would be a floor of 1.2500 or 1.3000, the higher the better for me

As for a sustained upward move, this might be good EUR news, but then again this might not impact the pair very much as the volatility has really died over the last few months.

Personally, this pair pays me positive swap and it has a floor of 1.2000 (as we are all aware) so in my view I have theoretically limited downside risk and potentially a large upside (along with an income of swap being paid). I have been liquidating my positions when the price spikes for a bit of cash also.
  • #9,109
  • Aug 17, 2012 6:31am Aug 17, 2012 6:31am
Quoting alaneth
I think the game is only beginning. EURCHF will gradually rise from now - also seeing that SNB has bought lesser EURs over the weeks (in general) and especially last week.

Consider this news...

Forex Flash: CHF no longer a safe haven – ANZ
Fri, Aug 17 2012, 09:06 GMT | FXstreet.com

[i]FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Indications from euro area policymakers in recent weeks are that both the ECB and the EU’s bailout fund will be able to buy the debt of peripheral sovereigns in the euro zone. German premier Merkel last night signaled...
Thanks aleneth,

I'm not sure either i will wait and see what happens at the beginnng of september with the german vote and wait to see if spain asks for a full bailout.

I dont see there being much movement up before the SNB monetary meeting
  • #9,110
  • Aug 17, 2012 6:34am Aug 17, 2012 6:34am
Quoting phil3526
I think a catalyst that would be great would be a floor of 1.2500 or 1.3000, the higher the better for me

As for a sustained upward move, this might be good EUR news, but then again this might not impact the pair very much as the volatility has really died over the last few months.

Personally, this pair pays me positive swap and it has a floor of 1.2000 (as we are all aware) so in my view I have theoretically limited downside risk and potentially a large upside (along with an income of swap being paid). I have been liquidating my positions...
Yes a higher floor would be good.

Any good news we have had so far has not had any impact on this pair at all as you say volatility has gone from this pair
  • #9,111
  • Aug 17, 2012 7:43am Aug 17, 2012 7:43am
Quoting brinks
Yes a higher floor would be good.

Any good news we have had so far has not had any impact on this pair at all as you say volatility has gone from this pair
That's right. But I haven't given up hope, far from it. What I love the most is the floor. I love having an almost guaranteed safety net, which allows you to take bigger positions. With all that leverage, any price move of 5 or 10 pips gives you a nice $ profit. And if your broker has negative balance protection, you know what the worst case scenario could be.

All you need is a big price spike to make some nice cash. Like what happened on the 6th of August. Unfortunately I only had a few sell orders at 1.2000 and not higher at 1.2050 or 1.2060!
  • #9,112
  • Aug 17, 2012 7:47am Aug 17, 2012 7:47am
Quoting phil3526
That's right. But I haven't given up hope, far from it. What I love the most is the floor. I love having an almost guaranteed safety net, which allows you to take bigger positions. With all that leverage, any price move of 5 or 10 pips gives you a nice $ profit. And if your broker has negative balance protection, you know what the worst case scenario could be.

All you need is a big price spike to make some nice cash. Like what happened on the 6th of August. Unfortunately I only had a few sell orders at 1.2000 and not higher at 1.2050 or 1.2060!...
I agree completely and i have been doing the same but i had been expecting a slow move up once the SNB proved they were up to the job of protecting the 1.20 level.

Sort of what cant go down must go up
  • #9,113
  • Aug 17, 2012 7:49am Aug 17, 2012 7:49am
As the volatility has gone from this pair, you could find an ECN broker that has nice tight spread and good commission rates and trade large positions for 0.5 or 1 pip profit.

With ECN brokers you can place orders anywhere so you can scalp this pair. But not with other standard broker accounts, some have minimum 2 pip distances for sell orders from market price.

Making $15 here, $35 here. Do this 10 times a week and the money starts to add up. You can build up a nice account balance thanks to the SNB!
  • #9,114
  • Aug 17, 2012 9:50am Aug 17, 2012 9:50am
Dear all, I have been following this forum for a while an have just joined officially. I have been trading with AVAfx (EUR/CHF long), and they have just started applying negative overnight rates to my positions (EUR -0.02), although their official website still offers positive overnight rates of EUR +0.02. I have contacted them, and they say the official rates are going to be adapted, but it has not happened all day so far. Can they really change the rates to negative while their website still offers positive rates? Does anyone of you trade with AVA and did they do they same with you? I look forward to your feedback!
  • #9,115
  • Aug 17, 2012 10:57am Aug 17, 2012 10:57am
Quoting Bluedolphin
Dear all, I have been following this forum for a while an have just joined officially. I have been trading with AVAfx (EUR/CHF long), and they have just started applying negative overnight rates to my positions (EUR -0.02), although their official website still offers positive overnight rates of EUR +0.02. I have contacted them, and they say the official rates are going to be adapted, but it has not happened all day so far. Can they really change the rates to negative while their website still offers positive rates? Does anyone of you trade with...
Hi there, I am pretty sure that they can change the rates whenever they want. I think it may be in their terms and conditions. I only used a demo with AVAfx but I didn't like them. They didn't pay much swap and their spreads were much bigger.
  • #9,116
  • Aug 17, 2012 1:06pm Aug 17, 2012 1:06pm
Any other brokers allowing a 1:400 or 1:500 without huge spikes still paying positive or at least not negative swaps ?
  • #9,117
  • Aug 17, 2012 1:49pm Aug 17, 2012 1:49pm
My broker is TradingPoint and they have negative swap all the time on EURCHF... At the moment -2.7 which is a lot!
  • #9,118
  • Aug 17, 2012 3:06pm Aug 17, 2012 3:06pm
I have been reading the opinions about swiss peg. I like this recommendation of Citigroup on march

March 15, 2012 at 17:59 GMT

An analyst at Citigroup is out with a note saying EUR/CHF could rise to 1.25 in the next few months due to interest rate differentials and surprisingly strong European economy. They say a USD rally will spur a more aggressive sell off in CHF than EUR.
  • #9,119
  • Aug 18, 2012 12:28am Aug 18, 2012 12:28am
Quoting alesss
I have been reading the opinions about swiss peg. I like this recommendation of Citigroup on march

March 15, 2012 at 17:59 GMT

An analyst at Citigroup is out with a note saying EUR/CHF could rise to 1.25 in the next few months due to interest rate differentials and surprisingly strong European economy. They say a USD rally will spur a more aggressive sell off in CHF than EUR.
The next few months has gone and it's still at 1.20
  • #9,120
  • Aug 18, 2012 9:28am Aug 18, 2012 9:28am
Quoting brinks
The next few months has gone and it's still at 1.20
Maybe in future days or weeks, nearing month of September has always been a great deal for fx traders. CHF will rise in my perspective view. Swisses generally love to go on holiday in August and September always brings great news out SNB. Grasp your fingers, with DeutscheBank being investigated because of LIBOR allegations, we could see the EURO on the brink.

My answer for your underestimated 1.25, is that it hasn't happened yet. Like many members on this thread have said. SNB have their ammunition ready to supply if due to EUR to collapse. Things have taken a different direction since LIBOR scandal came out. We could see not 1.25 yet, but 1.10 is on every traders mind.
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