Circular Trendlines

I work this view on Eurusd this month August, I know not too many circle but i follow thread sometime now and I see Kambooj very good analysis sometimes but levels are a bit off as well just like almost every good trader, the most important is to know what the market is doing so exploration will turn to exploit.

I will try not post too much this month so we can see if my analysis is worth anything while i studied circles to add to my arsenal then maybe my post with circular trend line. The timeline i put on chart is not concrete but new strategy i work now.

sorry english not my first, i admire good analysis is why i post on this thread, good trading.

The descend that was mentioned yesterday has begun. As mentioned previously the decend could be very slow, It wouldnt jump quickly to 2100.

There is at least 6 business days from now left for price action to do this. This implies large retracements along the way.

There are 2 possible retracement spots for any sell setup. One is the vicinity of 2380 where the base of the blue circle is located, and the other is the red trendline around 2430 level. Both levels are prime locations for a sell opportunity that might arise anytime after 10:30 AM EST.

One of the 2 spots that was mentioned yesterday turned out to be a very good sell spot, namely 2380.

At current moment there is equal probability for a 80 pip rise/drop, so its wiser to wait a bit longer before making a trading decision.

Here are the details:

Price action chose to go down instead of giving us one more chance around the 2380 region for a sell. The drop will continue to the lows of 2200/2160 before another retracement.

Sell region is anywhere in between 2280-2300 but wait till after 10:30 EST to get a better entry.

If you did wait after 10:30 and have not entered yet, here is a update that might be usefull.

If you are in a trade, then above 2320 will go to 2380

There were no posts yesterday due to the fact that we were not close enough to the timeline of August 15/16, and it was expected from the market not to do any major reactions until that time.

As we are closer today to this timeline, there was a reassessment of the timing of the move and the current timeline is showing a move that will start sometime today and last until August 22nd. So the August 15/16 is readjusted to August 14/15.

Direction is downward, but the possibility of a false break of the blue line is among the reactions that can happen before a dip occurs. For this reason, its better not to short any positions at 2350 and wait after 10:30 AM EST, to see whether the false break will happen or not. In the event of a false break then the shorting position will be the lows of 2400. Target is still lows of 2100

The exact time of the drop, yesterday was 3 AM of August 14th, but the rough estimate of adjusting the timeline was good enough to allow a shorting option by the day end.

The first rest spot for the drop will be the lows of 2200, and as price action unfolds we need to see whether the 61.8 Fib level of 2216 will hold price or whether we will have a more severe break till lows of 2100.

EURUSD
Gaps and ellipses
H1 consolidation:

http://s51.radikal.ru/i132/1208/5b/2c95912c015f.png

I use ellipses one diameter.

We are few days away from the August 22nd timeline as mentioned in a previous post:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...60#post5927660

and its only when price action is close to a expected timeline that good opportunities and setups arises.

The inside perimeter of the dotted black circle would not be able to hold for long, as price action is approaching a weak zone of that circle where a break downwards is expected soon towards the 2130 region. The 2320-2350 will be a selling zone for now.

The T1 trendline is the interim target for now after a fall to the lows of 2100

I will be off the thread for the remainder of the week till Monday. At the moment the EUR is at 2540 and still going up, and showing it still has desire to go further up. 2600 is a good size resistance.

Since we are very close to end of august, and ususally major moves dont happen until beginning of september, I will be hesitant a bit about the authenticity of this move towards 2800.

For now I am staying out till the week ends and will update everybody on Sunday night or Monday morning

Targets
http://s005.radikal.ru/i210/1208/b3/b9fced78871b.png
http://s15.radikal.ru/i188/1208/26/174ea405800e.png

In my opinion it is very likely that's a long-term scenario for the EUR / USD in terms of PTV:
http://s018.radikal.ru/i522/1208/54/dd4d125e5151.png

H4
http://s43.radikal.ru/i100/1208/e2/c0dd8278d64b.png

Daily
On this time frame the T1 and T2 lines were the final lines where a break downwards has occured. At the moment we have not seen a thrust upwards that has taken less time than the drop from R1 to 2035.Because we have not seen this phenomenon, which needs to be seen in order for price action to make a complete turnaround on this time frame, then the upward movement towards 2600 is just a retracement upwards before a down move occurs. The maximum upward move is 2730 where R1 is located.

The T3 line needs to be formed or touched before a decisive move upwards occurs that will go to 2800 and beyond that

Since price action is showing ample resistance at the blue circles and the more time that passes it will get closer to the poles of either of the circles, then the probability that it will shoot downwards increases as more time passes. This is because the poles will be a harder place to break through and go upwards. If it wants to breakthrough and go upwards, then right now is the best time. This is not happening at the moment.

So far there has not been a lot of time that is passing by that shows any curved tops close to 2600, because of that the short term trend is still up, until we see signs of resistance at around 2600

H2
The crescent moon shape that has contained price between the 2 blue circles is reaching its limits, the break of the T1 line is not a authentic break because the curvature towards the 2568 area is within the grey zone of the dotted blue circle and is hesitating at the moment. We are most likely to see price action reaching the vicinity of 2568 and very close to the dotted blue circle and then a drop out of that zone.

Quoting oossaa

Disliked

Targets
http://s005.radikal.ru/i210/1208/b3/b9fced78871b.png

Ignored

hi i want to ask about the tool you use to draw circuits in MT4 is it fibo arc or Ellipse shape thank you

Quoting Kambooj

Disliked

Daily
On this time frame the T1 and T2 lines were the final lines where a break downwards has occured. At the moment we have not seen a thrust upwards that has taken less time than the drop from R1 to 2035.Because we have not seen this phenomenon, which needs to be seen in order for price action to make a complete turnaround on this time frame, then the upward movement towards 2600 is just a retracement upwards before a down move occurs. The maximum upward move is 2730 where R1 is located.

The T3 line needs to be formed or touched before a...

Ignored

thank you man

have you a PDF file about your rules and example

is it work in 15&5&1 M time frame

is it like phi ellipses or Gann some shape

thank you

Hi!
I only use the ellipse. But one problem. If you use it on the day, mt4 repaint it. Then changes the size of the ellipse

Sorry I was away from the thread for most of last week, but back on regular schedule now since a new season of trading will begin as of today till mid december.

But no, I dont have a pdf and everything that I deemed to be important on this thread I have marked it on my very first page with links to articles.

Just follow the links on the very first page.

H8

The EUR will continue to go further upwards after last week window of activity of 150 pips. It is currently trying to push through the grey zone of the blue circle, and we could be seeing further movements upwards. The tendency to hang close to the south pole of the black circle is heralding an attempt to break that region. This is further confirmed by the tendecny of price action to try to get a grip inside the grey zone. If there is any down movement it will be a rewind to go further up, and currently the red line will be holding price action above its level. As far as trading opportunities exists, its better to stay out until we get a better setup such as price at the red line level.

Update
http://s018.radikal.ru/i516/1209/d5/0c494e7b937d.png