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EUR/CHF

  • #8,901
  • Aug 5, 2012 2:54pm Aug 5, 2012 2:54pm
other cp's seems more manageable:
see 2012.05.24, 2012.06.29, 2012.08.02
  • #8,902
  • Aug 5, 2012 3:50pm Aug 5, 2012 3:50pm
SNB is buying USD. they are diversifying
  • #8,903
  • Aug 5, 2012 7:42pm Aug 5, 2012 7:42pm
Now at 1.20205 (Hot Forex).

Candle showing sign of doji - looking forward for an 'evening star'.
Early signs of reversal - maybe SNB unloading some EURs.
  • #8,904
  • Aug 6, 2012 12:51am Aug 6, 2012 12:51am
Over 10 bln chf has been printed last week
  • #8,905
  • Aug 6, 2012 12:57am Aug 6, 2012 12:57am
Quoting pipxster
Over 10 bln chf has been printed last week
Yes, by one button click.
  • #8,906
  • Aug 6, 2012 12:57am Aug 6, 2012 12:57am
Quoting pipxster
Over 10 bln chf has been printed last week
seems a bit strange as the pair was higher,maybe new mr franc trying to move the pair up a little
  • #8,907
  • Aug 6, 2012 1:20am Aug 6, 2012 1:20am
Quoting brinks
seems a bit strange as the pair was higher,maybe new mr franc trying to move the pair up a little
It has been more than 2 months that amount of printed is strange.
  • #8,908
  • Edited 5:43am Aug 6, 2012 3:06am | Edited 5:43am
Here we go back into the range

Big news tomorrow CPI and Unemployment
  • #8,909
  • Aug 6, 2012 7:32am Aug 6, 2012 7:32am
the news are not important because EURCHF is intervened by SNB. One day EURCHF will go to 1,25 and it will go up very fast. But the question is: When will EURCHF go up? Tomorrow, the next month, the next year? I dont know.
  • #8,910
  • Aug 6, 2012 7:36am Aug 6, 2012 7:36am
Quoting alesss
the news are not important because EURCHF is intervened by SNB. One day EURCHF will go to 1,25 and it will go up very fast. But the question is. When will EURCHF go up? Tomorrow, the next month, the next year? I dont know.
The news tomorrow is important.

If the swiss economy starts coming out of deflation and into inflation it will start to make the SNB nervous about printing so many francs to hold the floor.

Dont get me wrong i dont think the pair will move because of the news.

I agree that if and when it does start to move up it will be quick.
  • #8,911
  • Aug 6, 2012 7:48am Aug 6, 2012 7:48am
Quoting brinks
The news tomorrow is important.

If the swiss economy starts coming out of deflation and into inflation it will start to make the SNB nervous about printing so many francs to hold the floor.

Dont get me wrong i dont think the pair will move because of the news.

I agree that if and when it does start to move up quickly.
You are right Brinks - when inflation sets in, too much printing will aggravate inflation. But the solution to inflation is a stronger currency - but CHF is already overvalued.... Unpeg CHF & it will strengthen too much & cause price instability.

So I think SNB will still hold this peg for a long time. But in case of signs of strong inflationary figures (which I think is not going to happen this year), the one & only weapon is capital controls. Already Swiss & Greece signed an agreement on tax evasion by Greeks pumping money into Swiss accounts.

But I think tomorrows CPI will not move more than 0.2% MoM.
  • #8,912
  • Aug 6, 2012 7:48am Aug 6, 2012 7:48am
Quoting brinks
The news tomorrow is important.

If the swiss economy starts coming out of deflation and into inflation it will start to make the SNB nervous about printing so many francs to hold the floor.

Dont get me wrong i dont think the pair will move because of the news.
I prefer to have a big deflation, because the SNB would be nervous and they will rise the floor to 1,40. Thomas Jordan said that they will rise the floor only if there is a great deflation.

If there is inflation, The SNB use the occasion to sell all the euros that they have acquired during the last three years and EURCHF will remain at 1,20
  • #8,913
  • Aug 6, 2012 7:56am Aug 6, 2012 7:56am
Quoting alaneth
You are right Brinks - when inflation sets in, too much printing will aggravate inflation. But the solution to inflation is a stronger currency - but CHF is already overvalued.... Unpeg CHF & it will strengthen too much & cause price instability.

So I think SNB will still hold this peg for a long time. But in case of signs of strong inflationary figures (which I think is not going to happen this year), the one & only weapon is capital controls. Already Swiss & Greece signed an agreement on tax evasion by Greeks pumping money into Swiss accounts....
-0.6 mom -0.8 yoy expected also forex reserves data.
  • #8,914
  • Aug 6, 2012 7:59am Aug 6, 2012 7:59am
Whichever way CPI turns out, I think it will be traders sentiments that will rule tomorrow's movement. I feel we cannot say for sure if deflation will cause eurchf to drop as traders may expect SNB to intervene & buy.

Anyway, tomorrow, I want this pair to dip a few pips below 1.2010 to scoop-up my all buy limits around 1.2010-12. Due to the recent spikes, I offloaded some 70-80% of my trades & want to reload

I think there will be more upwards spikes from ECB news & rumours coming in the next few weeks. Still lots of uncertainty on the EFSF & ESM. Draghi likes to have unscheduled, unexpected announcements.
  • #8,915
  • Aug 6, 2012 8:03am Aug 6, 2012 8:03am
Quoting alaneth
Whichever way CPI turns out, I think it will be traders sentiments that will rule tomorrow's movement. I feel we cannot say for sure if deflation will cause eurchf to drop as traders may expect SNB to intervene & buy.

Anyway, tomorrow, I want this pair to dip a few pips below 1.2010 to scoop-up my all buy limits around 1.2010-12. Due to the recent spikes, I offloaded some 70-80% of my trades & want to reload

I think there will be more upwards spikes from ECB news & rumours coming in the next few weeks. Still lots of uncertainty on the EFSF...
Dont you think it may of been the SNB causing the little move last week ?
  • #8,916
  • Aug 6, 2012 8:07am Aug 6, 2012 8:07am
Forexpros forecasts that CPI is -0,6% on july. Tomorrow we will know, but I hope that deflation is higher
  • #8,917
  • Aug 6, 2012 8:34am Aug 6, 2012 8:34am
sure the news matters. CPI the most important data on monetary policy.
  • #8,918
  • Aug 6, 2012 9:39am Aug 6, 2012 9:39am
here we can not do anything. EURCHF is intervened and SNB has the power, money and glory. So good bye and good luck
  • #8,919
  • Aug 6, 2012 1:18pm Aug 6, 2012 1:18pm
Quoting alesss
here we can not do anything. EURCHF is intervened and SNB has the power, money and glory. So good bye and good luck
Did anyone saw the spike till 1.20780 ? Very rapid spike or it was only on my chart?
Speculation converts one man's capital into another man's income
  • #8,920
  • Aug 6, 2012 1:18pm Aug 6, 2012 1:18pm
What was that? 1,20750 few minutes ago now 1,20140?
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