Ok, myself I take a trade based on better odds, I do not predict if price go up or down (anyway there only 3 ways the market can go, up, down or nowhere, so in predicting you have 30% to get it right......).
Trading is already difficult per se, then if you narrow your view with concepts we have less chances in succeeding.
If we predict, lets say north, subconsciously we tend to disregard the signal to go south. So why do we continue to predict it? I think deep down for us is more important to be right () then to make money and...
You do make sense Mike. But following the direction of the trend without understanding why its happening and why it reversed while it should have gonna up , is essential to this business. In other words , this proposed mythology which is very safe BTW , will only secure 30% of the potential profit you could have taken. ( Which damages your psychology badly , leaving you with feeling of regard or less confidence ) But if you were correct, not only it increase your profit with levels like 70% or 80 % , but it give this deep understanding of what's happening in front of your eyes.
Add to that too, the increased amount of time you take to follow the charts and try to spot your entry while volatile market is moving ups and down , and you gonna have to pay a skyrocket spread. But a acceptable lose and placing a bet before the volatile market and you are looking at a very good opportunity to be seized up to the full
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
