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  • #675,361
  • Aug 5, 2012 1:27am Aug 5, 2012 1:27am
Quoting clambill
I don't know why I'm bothering to address some comments above but here it goes.

From my testing, momentum oscillators (contrarian indicators like slow stochastics and RSI) and sentiment indicators (like put/call ratios) have the same type of characteristics. For example, a contrarian indicator can work if there is a retracement. But, it may not work in a real change of direction (in other words, when you start to see a change of direction, it's actually a new trend and not a retracement).

Another factor as some of you know is the time...
Sure, completely agree. People here tend to rely on indicator based on their output... Sometimes these indicators are messing things up coz of a few inputs in their calculation.

Example : difference between an MA and an exponential MA.The signal needed would be much difference in case of big bump. Yet, which one is right or wrong?
  • #675,362
  • Aug 5, 2012 4:01am Aug 5, 2012 4:01am
First up, the king of forex, the EURUSD. All other major currency pairs move in relation to EURUSD. Even if you are trading other pairs, you have to watch this. It is like watching Barcelona vs Real Madrid, all other games for that weekend is relegated to second place.

Watch 1.2400-40 closely. This pivot zone has been in play for a long time already. I think both the bull and bear operators are gunning for this zone. Either the bears will enforce this zone and bring EURUSD down again. Or the bulls will prevail and cause EURUSD to break above this zone.

Scenario 1
If bears win, 1.2400-40 as resistance zone will hold. Thereby forming a third point on the falling channel.

SHORT 1.2400-40
Stop loss above 1.2440
Final target profit 1.2100

http://i48.tinypic.com/23rtwdw.png


Scenario 2
If bulls win and 1.2400-40 resistance zone is broken to the upside and holds, expect a possible retest of 1.2400 to confirm that the breakout is real. Remember the pivotal nature of support and resistance. Often when resistance zone is broken, it reverses its role to become support zone. If resistance is broken and become support,

LONG 1.2400-10
Stop loss below 1.2380
Final target profit 1.2700

http://i48.tinypic.com/ix9nb5.png
  • #675,363
  • Aug 5, 2012 4:58am Aug 5, 2012 4:58am
I think traders focus too much on prediction and automatically tend to focus less on extract money out of the pool, prediction is dangerous in trading in my view, because it produces concepts, concepts are static which are the complete opposite nature of the market. Please articulate as much as you wish......


I am doing my weekly books, I will be reading with interest....
"Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon."
  • #675,364
  • Aug 5, 2012 5:08am Aug 5, 2012 5:08am
Quoting ForexMGames
First up, the king of forex, the EURUSD. All other major currency pairs move in relation to EURUSD. Even if you are trading other pairs, you have to watch this. It is like watching Barcelona vs Real Madrid, all other games for that weekend is relegated to second place.

Watch 1.2400-40 closely. This pivot zone has been in play for a long time already. I think both the bull and bear operators are gunning for this zone. Either the bears will enforce this zone and bring EURUSD down again. Or the bulls will prevail and cause EURUSD to break above...
Attached Image
Daytrader
  • #675,365
  • Aug 5, 2012 5:29am Aug 5, 2012 5:29am
Quoting ForexMGames
First up, the king of forex, the EURUSD. All other major currency pairs move in relation to EURUSD. Even if you are trading other pairs, you have to watch this. It is like watching Barcelona vs Real Madrid, all other games for that weekend is relegated to second place.

Watch 1.2400-40 closely. This pivot zone has been in play for a long time already. I think both the bull and bear operators are gunning for this zone. Either the bears will enforce this zone and bring EURUSD down again. Or the bulls will prevail and cause EURUSD to break above...
Quote
First up, the king of forex, the EURUSD. All other major currency pairs move in relation to EURUSD. Even if you are trading other pairs, you have to watch this

hmm no.
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #675,366
  • Aug 5, 2012 5:29am Aug 5, 2012 5:29am
Quoting Mike8
I think traders focus too much on prediction and automatically tend to focus less on extract money out of the pool, prediction is dangerous in trading in my view, because it produces concepts, concepts are static which are the complete opposite nature of the market. Please articulate as much as you wish......


I am doing my weekly books, I will be reading with interest....
Well Mike, you do have to predict in forex, because the very act of placing a trade is based upon a prediction as to what the price is going to do and how far it is likely to go. But I know what you are talking about, no point trying to predict say today what the price is likely to do tomorrow, because that is no more than a guess unless of course you have objectively studied the charts and have definite clear technical signals in place which give an indication as to where it is likely to go. The markets can and do spring surprises, but on the whole, if one is correct with one's analysis, the stays away from the main market moving news events, it can be predicted with a fair degree of accuracy. The main skill to really grasp is not the predicting, it is timing one's entries and exits, and that's a whole different ball game.
  • #675,367
  • Aug 5, 2012 5:33am Aug 5, 2012 5:33am
Quoting cat
The main skill to really grasp is not the predicting, it is timing one's entries and exits, and that's a whole different ball game.


You moved just like a feline.
"Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon."
  • #675,368
  • Aug 5, 2012 5:34am Aug 5, 2012 5:34am
[quote=ForexMGames;5903565]First up, the king of forex, the EURUSD. All other major currency pairs move in relation to EURUSD. Even if you are trading other pairs, you have to watch this.

No you don't, you concentrate on the pair you are trading and forget about everything else.
  • #675,369
  • Aug 5, 2012 5:37am Aug 5, 2012 5:37am
[quote=cat;5903596]
Quoting ForexMGames
First up, the king of forex, the EURUSD. All other major currency pairs move in relation to EURUSD. Even if you are trading other pairs, you have to watch this.

No you don't, you concentrate on the pair you are trading and forget about everything else.
well correlations do certainly play a role in trading. But it's not only up to EURUSD of course.

GBPUSD and EURUSD for example both depend on the USD value, but this doesnt mean that both pairs will drop if usd value increases since we dont know how many are willing to buy the pound or the euro instead at the same time.

etc.
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #675,370
  • Aug 5, 2012 5:39am Aug 5, 2012 5:39am
Quoting cat
Well Mike, you do have to predict in forex, because the very act of placing a trade is based upon a prediction as to what the price is going to do and how far it is likely to go. But I know what you are talking about, no point trying to predict say today what the price is likely to do tomorrow, because that is no more than a guess unless of course you have objectively studied the charts and have definite clear technical signals in place which give an indication as to where it is likely to go. The markets can and do spring surprises, but on the whole,...
in my humble opinion ''predict'' is the wrong word in place here. We should better use ''anticipate'' or sth. like that since we never know where price will go.
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #675,371
  • Aug 5, 2012 5:40am Aug 5, 2012 5:40am
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  • #675,372
  • Aug 5, 2012 5:48am Aug 5, 2012 5:48am
Quoting PhAnTi'
in my humble opinion ''predict'' is the wrong word in place here. We should better use ''anticipate'' or sth. like that since we never know where price will go.
Agreed, I think " anticipate " is far better, it implies a lesser degree of certainty.
  • #675,373
  • Aug 5, 2012 5:52am Aug 5, 2012 5:52am
Ok, myself I take a trade based on better odds, I do not predict if price go up or down (anyway there only 3 ways the market can go, up, down or nowhere, so in predicting you have 30% to get it right......).

Trading is already difficult per se, then if you narrow your view with concepts we have less chances in succeeding.

If we predict, lets say north, subconsciously we tend to disregard the signal to go south. So why do we continue to predict it?

I think deep down for us is more important to be right () then to make money and this is in my view why most of us sucks in this business.

Please correct me if I do not make sense..
"Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon."
  • #675,374
  • Aug 5, 2012 5:52am Aug 5, 2012 5:52am
Quoting cat
Agreed, I think " anticipate " is far better, it implies a lesser degree of certainty.
Thats the point.
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #675,375
  • Aug 5, 2012 5:53am Aug 5, 2012 5:53am
Have anyone noticed that the spread on EURUSD just reached 5 pips for both .... make you really wonder what is going to happen Monday morning ( or in just few hours from now ). ?
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #675,376
  • Aug 5, 2012 5:58am Aug 5, 2012 5:58am
Quoting Vachus
Have anyone noticed that the spread on EURUSD just reached 5 pips for both .... make you really wonder what is going to happen Monday morning ( or in just few hours from now ). ?
Shits going down on the opening. Glad I closed my trades on Friday.

On a side note I see a retracement on the au followed by a strong upward continuation of the channel on longer time frame. + aussie will have good data so we should see those strong upward movements after retracement in my opinion.

I will open long positions down below.

Have a good week traders, I'm sure we will talk soon!
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #675,377
  • Edited 6:06am Aug 5, 2012 6:02am | Edited 6:06am
Quoting Mike8
Ok, myself I take a trade based on better odds, I do not predict if price go up or down (anyway there only 3 ways the market can go, up, down or nowhere, so in predicting you have 30% to get it right......).

Trading is already difficult per se, then if you narrow your view with concepts we have less chances in succeeding.

If we predict, lets say north, subconsciously we tend to disregard the signal to go south. So why do we continue to predict it?

I think deep down for us is more important to be right () then to make money...
well first of all it isn't 30 %, it's more like 1/3. On the other hand, we do have a 50/50 kick whenever we enter a trade ( ceteris paribus ). Consolidation is a very important event in price action to analyze further possible price movements. But when we talk about trades there are only 2 possible directions.
Up
or
down.

So increase your odds and get profitable in the long run.

'' Losing 49 % and winning 51 % is enough if you can have a great life spending the difference''
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #675,378
  • Aug 5, 2012 6:02am Aug 5, 2012 6:02am
Quoting PhAnTi'
since we never know where price will go.


You moved like a pachyderm.
"Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon."
  • #675,379
  • Aug 5, 2012 6:06am Aug 5, 2012 6:06am
Quoting Mike8


You moved like a pachyderm.
to be honest, i had to look this one up....but ...yes
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #675,380
  • Aug 5, 2012 6:06am Aug 5, 2012 6:06am
I think deep down for us is more important to be right () then to make money and this is in my view why most of us sucks in this business.

Please correct me if I do not make sense..[/quote]

You make sense, but this takes us into an area about which hundreds of books and articles have been written. For a Sunday morning, all I can say is that life, from a very early age, predisposes us against the very sort of mindset one needs to make money as a trader, in that we are conditioned to do everything we can to avoid being wrong, and embrace being right. But to trade, you have to embrace both equally, and that just goes against everything we have ever been taught.
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