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EurAnalysis

  • #45,421
  • Aug 2, 2012 3:40am Aug 2, 2012 3:40am
Head up folks

In about 15 minutes, we should be getting the 2, 4 and 10 year Spanish bond auction results.

Last 10 year yield was 6.43% with a bid to cover of 3.2

You can see the results at http://www.forexpros.com/economic-calendar/

Current 10 Year yield on the secondary market is 6.699%
2's are at 4.997% and 4's are at 5.94%
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #45,422
  • Aug 2, 2012 3:47am Aug 2, 2012 3:47am
Quoting Islander
GM - yesterdays Ben induced fall halted at the 50% retrace on my hourly chart.

Now as we wait for Signore Daghi's report later this afternoon - Europe-wise - I'm looking to sell again in the grey zone ~ 38% to 61% retrace, or what I termed in my olde Naked thread.....The Decision Zone, where the market either decides to continue its fall OR turn back up......now that will make PT spill his coffee

Must dash to finish some boat work.......BFN
That's a good area to short hopefully this time market don't over reacted. I'm watching the PA closely how it react to the news , then take a short at the right level and timing ...
  • #45,423
  • Aug 2, 2012 3:47am Aug 2, 2012 3:47am
Quoting Chika Kure
E/U is testing a daily pivot now (2263 with my indi).
Short 2262, SL 20 TP 40
Well that was a stopper.
  • #45,424
  • Aug 2, 2012 4:18am Aug 2, 2012 4:18am
Quoting Chika Kure
Well that was a stopper.
Full take up on the Spanish bond auction caused that.

1.060 Bln of 2 Yr. Yield 4.774% vs 3.592% last.
1.024 Bln of 4 Yr. Yield 5.971% vs 5.536% last.
1.046 Bln of 10 Yr. Yield 6.647% vs 6.430% last.

Total = 3.130 Bln vs 3.000 Bln target

Except for higher yields, the auction was a success.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #45,425
  • Aug 2, 2012 4:23am Aug 2, 2012 4:23am
Quoting PipTrapper
Full take up on the Spanish bond auction caused that.

1.060 Bln of 2 Yr. Yield 4.774% vs 3.592% last.
1.024 Bln of 4 Yr. Yield 5.971% vs 5.536% last.
1.046 Bln of 10 Yr. Yield 6.647% vs 6.430% last.

Total = 3.130 Bln vs 3.000 Bln target

Except for higher yields, the auction was a success.
PT could you please tell what is the impact now to the market ??

thanks
“Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened.”
  • #45,426
  • Aug 2, 2012 4:26am Aug 2, 2012 4:26am
Quoting balanced2012
PT could you please tell what is the impact now to the market ??

thanks
makes it more likely ECB will do nothing.
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #45,427
  • Aug 2, 2012 4:36am Aug 2, 2012 4:36am
Quoting balanced2012
PT could you please tell what is the impact now to the market ??

thanks
This has no impact on the market at this time, but it may be taken into consideration depending on what Draghi does and/or says today.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #45,428
  • Aug 2, 2012 4:38am Aug 2, 2012 4:38am
Quoting cgldsmth
makes it more likely ECB will do nothing.
It is not likely that the ECB will do more SMP purchases regardless of any auction results. As I stated in my morning update, the chances are more so that we get another LTRO or a rate cut or both.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #45,429
  • Aug 2, 2012 4:39am Aug 2, 2012 4:39am
Quoting PipTrapper
This has no impact on the market at this time, but it may be taken into consideration depending on what Draghi does and/or says today.
i guess Draghi is already decided what hes gonna say or do today !!! or what do you think ? could he change everything based on that ?
“Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened.”
  • #45,430
  • Aug 2, 2012 4:40am Aug 2, 2012 4:40am
Quoting Gofer Pips
Seems thread has become psychoanalysis. I trade on TA and FA and I post and no one asks a question.......so either I am a dumbass, or I have nothing to contribute. In either case, I guess it's PEACE and I'm out! Good trading to all my friends here, and better trading to those that aren't my friend....... yet!
Gofer. Don't leave bro. It's probably because it's summer trading and many are on vacation so the room is not as active with regulars. Don't take it personal. I for one, have just been so busy with other things and don't get a chance to post as often. London open is mostly boring and I'm on more of a summer trading schedule. Anyways, we appreciate your analysis and participation and would like for you to continue to make this thread of value. Thanks bud.

BTW-I sent you a PM like last weekend. Did you get it? Thanks bro.
  • #45,431
  • Aug 2, 2012 4:41am Aug 2, 2012 4:41am
Quoting PipTrapper
It is not likely that the ECB will do more SMP purchases regardless of any auction results. As I stated in my morning update, the chances are more so that we get another LTRO or a rate cut or both.
I want a cut - big style
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #45,432
  • Aug 2, 2012 4:53am Aug 2, 2012 4:53am
Hey Gofer,

I apologise as i dont post as often as i should and im sorry for that, but please take full note that i read and respect your posts just as other posts on this thread, so please return your posts, charts and ideas are very respected here!!!
Cheers!!
  • #45,433
  • Aug 2, 2012 4:58am Aug 2, 2012 4:58am
Quoting balanced2012
i guess Draghi is already decided what hes gonna say or do today !!! or what do you think ? could he change everything based on that ?
I'm not sure he'll change anything. The results of the bond auction may have some impact on an SMP program, but as I said, I don't believe an SMP program is in the cards regardless.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #45,434
  • Aug 2, 2012 5:00am Aug 2, 2012 5:00am
Quoting cgldsmth
I want a cut - big style
HaHa. I'd be salivating over that kind of action. However, if all he does is cut, the market is going to be extremely disappointed and Draghi will lose his credibility. As such I expect more than just a cut. LTRO3 seems the most logical.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #45,435
  • Aug 2, 2012 5:03am Aug 2, 2012 5:03am
"Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserver the Euro... and believe me, it will be enough" ~the EuroFonz, Mario Draghi~ on Thursday 26th July, 2012

Big words, heightened expectations. If he doesn't deliver, his name will be mud... much like O'Bummer's.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #45,436
  • Aug 2, 2012 5:05am Aug 2, 2012 5:05am
Quoting PipTrapper
"Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserver the Euro... and believe me, it will be enough" ~the EuroFonz, Mario Draghi~

Big words, heightened expectations. If he doesn't deliver, his name will be mud... much like O'Bummer's.
So he got to do something today !!!
“Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened.”
  • #45,437
  • Aug 2, 2012 5:06am Aug 2, 2012 5:06am
Quoting balanced2012
So he got to do something today !!!
No he doesn't have to do anything, but he better do something if he wants to keep his credibility.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #45,438
  • Aug 2, 2012 5:15am Aug 2, 2012 5:15am
Quoting PipTrapper
"Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserver the Euro... and believe me, it will be enough" ~the EuroFonz, Mario Draghi~ on Thursday 26th July, 2012

Big words, heightened expectations. If he doesn't deliver, his name will be mud... much like O'Bummer's.
Yeap, he put himself in the corner. Made his first mistake since he is in charge of the ECB. Playing politics, getting caught in the headlines and showing sign of desperation only threaten the credibility of a CB.

Let see, from most of the sources seems like the plan was a new and massive coordinated action in September with FED QE3, BOE QE99999x and rate cuts, ECB cuts, bond buying and also a kind of QE1 with the BOJ and SNB as a back propellers in the engine....

Now because of Draghi "slip/mistake, he must deliver something. A failure to deliver with a mediocre NFP (as expected) opens major corrections in stocks (and a selloff on air in the euro) ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #45,439
  • Aug 2, 2012 5:23am Aug 2, 2012 5:23am
Quoting sisse
Yeap, he put himself in the corner. Made his first mistake since he is in charge of the ECB. Playing politics, getting caught in the headlines and showing sign of desperation only threaten the credibility of a CB.

Let see, from most of the sources seems like the plan was a new and massive coordinated action in September with FED QE3, BOE QE99999x and rate cuts, ECB cuts, bond buying and also a kind of QE1 with the BOJ and SNB as a back propellers in the engine....

Now because of Draghi "slip/mistake, he must deliver something. A failure to deliver...
Great post sisse. I thought they would've rolled out a coordinated global QE by now. We'll see if he carries a big stick or small one after today.
  • #45,440
  • Aug 2, 2012 5:27am Aug 2, 2012 5:27am
Quoting PipTrapper
HaHa. I'd be salivating over that kind of action. However, if all he does is cut, the market is going to be extremely disappointed and Draghi will lose his credibility. As such I expect more than just a cut. LTRO3 seems the most logical.
The other logical thing is to cut the discount rate and that would be positive as it will show the markets he is doing what he has the control to do. We will soon see. You also can be 100% sure that the FED is pushing and has made a financial arrangement behind the scenes. In about one year we will find out what that was unless the Senate passes Ron Paul's "Audit The Fed" BILL...

The audit is of the policy not the financial condition of the FED.

Good Morning To You and everyone else here.
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