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  • #45,401
  • Aug 1, 2012 10:56pm Aug 1, 2012 10:56pm
Quoting drzakir123
good morning PT,i just close my itchy long with 30 green pips in anticipation of fundamental wave going down.max upside i am seeing at the moment is 270/280 area.but i notice u said something about hopium train going upto 750?
Good morning Doc. You have to read the post in its entire context. I didn't say it will go to 1.2750. I said that if the inverse H/S pattern plays out, it has the potential of going there. Big difference
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #45,402
  • Aug 1, 2012 11:09pm Aug 1, 2012 11:09pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Good morning Doc. You have to read the post in its entire context. I didn't say it will go to 1.2750. I said that if the inverse H/S pattern plays out, it has the potential of going there. Big difference
ok PT,with that i have started building my short position,i am going to cover an area 250 pips for this position buildup if price move against me and stop loss and bigger positions will be standing somewhere above 750,may be i am a bit early but not being in position is a bigger risk.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #45,403
  • Edited 11:41pm Aug 1, 2012 11:25pm | Edited 11:41pm
Good morning all

It's now comes down to Super Mario... the savior of the Euro. At least that is what he would like the world to believe. It would certainly put a nice feather in his cap so that when he returns to the private sector, he can get another nice job with Goldman Sachs with a much higher pay package than he had with them before.

http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8161/7...3d1a8d8a_b.jpg

As I fully expected, Benny seriously disappointed the markets yesterday. So now we wait for Mario to do the same. In order to fully understand how he will disappoint, we have to understand what he can and cannot do in his capacity as the king honcho of the ECB. So here it is all broken down in point form.

1. Issue (or suggest that he will issue) a banking license to the ESM. At this point it is pointless. The ESM is not even in existence and there are litigation issues which will not be resolved until September at least. Even if all goes well and the ESM does get a banking license, by then Spanish 10 year yields will be up to 10%. The solution has to have immediate effect. Ignoring all the other reasons why a banking license won't fly, this one is good enough all by itself.

2. Start up the SMP (Securities Market Program) again to buy Spanish and Italian bonds on the secondary market. This program had little effect last time. The SMP account is already up to approx 200 billion Euros and we are in worse shape now than we were before. So, although it may provide immediate relief, the positive effect will be very temporary... not to mention that Germany and other northern states will vehemently oppose this move.

3. LTRO 3. This one is certainly a possibility and if I were a betting man, I would put my money on it. I suspect that Draghi will announce a longer term LTRO (possibly as long as 5 years) and also adjust the collateral requirements to include everything (including the kitchen sink) as acceptable. This would have a positive effect on the bond markets and initially will also have a positive effect on the Euro exchange rate through more Euro short covering. With enough money up for offer (say €1 Trillion), the mid term effect would be lower bond yields for the distressed states, possible stimulus to the economy and eventually a lower exchange rate on the Euro due to an increase in the money in circulation. This is the ECB version of QE.

4. Another overnight rate cut to 0.5% and a negative deposit rate to -0.1%. By itself, this move will not have a large enough impact to satisfy the markets. However, in combination with LTRO3, it would add to the impact and success of the plan. The results would serve to enhance the LTRO 3 program as it adds extra stimulus to the economy and creates a disincentive for the banks to deposit their LTRO money with the ECB. Such disincentive almost forces the banks to buy sovereign bonds and/or lend the money to corporations and consumers. This effect coupled with lower lending interest rates and a lower exchange rate on the Euro, would probably be enough to stimulate more economic activity, thereby raising the GDP and effectively lowering the debt to GDP ratio and the deficit to GDP rate.

Okay, so we know what the options are. 1 and 2 are off the table in my opinion. 3 or 4 or both seem more likely. The market is expecting #2 (Bond buying) today so I believe they will be disappointed and that disappointment will be reflected in the bond yields, and by proxy, the currency markets as risk off will be the initial reaction. If we get LTRO 3, a persistent positive effect will not be seen until after the results of how many and which banks took the money and how much they took. Until then, it's a slippery slope but the downside will be limited. If we only get a rate cut, then we say hello to 1.17 in no time at all (this month).

Technically, we are still in the same position as yesterday. Consolidation and indecision. The key levels are 1.2220 on the downside and 1.2440 on the upside.

Good luck today and many green pips to all.

E/U H4
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #45,404
  • Aug 1, 2012 11:42pm Aug 1, 2012 11:42pm
Todays orderboard

Written by Pete Jackson
August 2, 2012 at 06:14 GMT

EUR/USD: Bids 1.2200/20 (Fibonacci supp around 1.2215 =50% retracement of July 24 low/Jul 27 high), likely sell stops below ahead of further bids 1.2170/80, sell stops through 1.2150. Offers clustered 1.2290/1.2310 and 1.2340/50.

GBP/USD: Bids 1.5525/35 and 1.5500/10. Buy stops through 1.5550, offers above 1.5605/15

EUR/GBP: Bids 0.7860/65 and 0.7840/45, stronger down at 0.7790/00 . Offers at 0.7880/90 ahead of tech res 0.7900/05, possible buy stops above

USD/JPY: Large bids 77.90/78.10, sell stops through 77.90 and 77.50. Offers start from 78.50/60 fromJapan exporters and trail up to 79.00, Buy stops mixed in through 78.70, and more up through 79.00.

EUR/JPY: Bids 95.80/90 likely sell stops below ahead of more bids 95.50/60 (real money,Japaninvestors), sell stops below and through 95.00. Offers 96.30/40 and 96.55/65 (CTAs , funds, sovereigns) likely buy stops above ahead of tech res 97.30/35 (Fri highs)

AUD/JPY: Bids 81.90/00, tech supp 81.65/70 (81.65 100 day MA) and 81.50/60 sell stops through 81.50, tech support 81.35/40 (81.35- 200 day MA), more sell stops through 81.00. Offers/tech res 82.40/50 and tech res 82.85/90 (82.86 May 3 high)

EUR/CHF: Bids 1.2000/10(SNB), Offers 1.2025/30 buy stops through 1.2035 and through 1.2050

USD/CHF: Bids/tech supp 0.9780/90 and 0.9730/40, offers 0.9825/35 and 0.9860/70

AUD/USD: Bids 1.0450/60 (exporters, ACBs), some sell stops through 1.0450 and 1.0435 ahead of bids 1.0400/10. Offers start from 1.0480 through to 1.0510, stronger up at 1.0540/50 (still talk of RBA commercial selling interest as well as funds) ahead of 1.0550 barrier option interest.

EUR/AUD: Bids 1.1675/85, tech supp 1.1640/50. (1.1640 new all time low). Offers 1.1710/20, Strong res up at 1.1755/65, possible stops through 1.1770

NZD/USD: Tech res 0.8100/05 and 0.8155/65. Bids 0.8070/80, some weak sell stops below ahead of tech support 0.8050/55. Sell stops through 0.8050 and 0.8000

USD/CAD: Bids 1.0000/10 ahead of a barrier at parity, likely sell stops just below ahead of tech supp 0.9955/60. Tech res 1.0070/75 and 1.0090/10 (100/200 day MAs 1.0093/1.0107)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #45,405
  • Aug 1, 2012 11:46pm Aug 1, 2012 11:46pm
Today's Euro FX option expiries at 14:00 GMT

1.2100
1.2150
1.2200
1.2220
1.2250
1.2260
1.2300
1.2360
1.2400

Talk of barrier options at 1.2400 and 1.2000
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #45,406
  • Aug 1, 2012 11:50pm Aug 1, 2012 11:50pm
Quoting Gofer Pips
Seems thread has become psychoanalysis. I trade on TA and FA and I post and no one asks a question.......so either I am a dumbass, or I have nothing to contribute. In either case, I guess it's PEACE and I'm out! Good trading to all my friends here, and better trading to those that aren't my friend....... yet!
Hello friend,

Don't feel that way . If the members do not interact with u it does not mean that they do not appreciate your work. May be they feel 'shy' to ask or weather the question is not right / stupid question or do not know what to ask, especially the new members/traders. I have been following your posts since I join EurAnalysis. You have contributed a lot to this thread. Don't stop , keep contributing and keep giving for the good course. May God bless u with health, happiness, wealth and many green pips .
  • #45,407
  • Aug 1, 2012 11:56pm Aug 1, 2012 11:56pm
Quoting AlwaysLost
Hello friend,

Don't feel that way . If the members do not interact with u it does not mean that they do not appreciate your work. May be they feel 'shy' to ask or weather the question is not right / stupid question or do not know what to ask, especially the new members/traders. I have been following your posts since I join EurAnalysis. You have contributed a lot to this thread. Don't stop , keep contributing and keep giving for the good course. May God bless u with health, happiness, wealth and many green pips .


EurAnalysis is all about being a community and this response, as well as others is a show of such a sentiment.

Come back Gofer. EurAnalysis will not be the same without you.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #45,408
  • Aug 2, 2012 12:08am Aug 2, 2012 12:08am
Quoting KillerWhale
Short from 1.2254, target 1.2172
Definitely your picture 'killing'. Any short is a good short with good strategy plus patience. I'm watching PA and waiting for 8.30 ECB press conference , US-Initial Jobless Claims and 0745 - EU Interest decision.
  • #45,409
  • Aug 2, 2012 12:09am Aug 2, 2012 12:09am
Quoting PipTrapper
Good morning all

It's now comes down to Super Mario... the savior of the Euro. At least that is what he would like the world to believe. It would certainly put a nice feather in his cap so that when he returns to the private sector, he can get another nice job with Goldman Sachs with a much higher pay package than he had with them before.

http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8161/7...3d1a8d8a_b.jpg

As I fully expected, Benny seriously disappointed the markets yesterday. So now we wait for Mario to do the same. In order to fully...
Nice job!
69
  • #45,410
  • Aug 2, 2012 12:11am Aug 2, 2012 12:11am
Quoting PipTrapper


EurAnalysis is all about being a community and this response, as well as others is a show of such a sentiment.

Come back Gofer. EurAnalysis will not be the same without you.
oh probably its his psychological requirement to be notice and be known eeeekekk damn it again the same psyco ANALysis,ok sir i stop here,comeback and no more of that shit
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #45,411
  • Aug 2, 2012 12:25am Aug 2, 2012 12:25am
Quoting Gofer Pips
Seems thread has become psychoanalysis. I trade on TA and FA and I post and no one asks a question.......so either I am a dumbass, or I have nothing to contribute. In either case, I guess it's PEACE and I'm out! Good trading to all my friends here, and better trading to those that aren't my friend....... yet!
i , my self have learned alot from your posts , and you contributions are really priced high , from everyone in here i guess !!!!

maybe and this is my case most of us are still learning and we dont know what to ask and we who dont was to appear as a dumbasses !!!

cheers mate !!! and keep posting your valuable posts

GL and green pips for all
“Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened.”
  • #45,412
  • Aug 2, 2012 12:30am Aug 2, 2012 12:30am
Hey Gofer,

Just cos people don't ask questions doesn't mean they aren't learning from your posts. Being a noob I like to read all the posts and try and digest all the info from everyone. I never think to ask Q's though
  • #45,413
  • Aug 2, 2012 12:35am Aug 2, 2012 12:35am
Quoting Wulfgar
Hey guys

Trigger number on the EU right now the 2231. Im short if we hit it. Stops are behind the 2275

Will see how price reacts at 2219/2200 and 2165 to the downside

To the upside the 2274/2302/2324 are the majors

Good luck everyone. Will be very interesting with the ECB taking center stage this session
trade cancelled due to the break of the 55 area...

looks like we are gonna go up to the 74 next most likely... or just oscillate for awhile... either way Im flat
  • #45,414
  • Aug 2, 2012 12:44am Aug 2, 2012 12:44am
E/U is testing a daily pivot now (2263 with my indi).
Short 2262, SL 20 TP 40
  • #45,415
  • Aug 2, 2012 12:44am Aug 2, 2012 12:44am
Quoting Wulfgar
trade cancelled due to the break of the 55 area...

looks like we are gonna go up to the 74 next most likely... or just oscillate for awhile... either way Im flat
Based on your trading style, that's a good idea. Today I expect some more Euro short covering leading up to Super Mario.

Although I expect the USD to continue gaining this morning (and to some extent even after Draghi), the Euro will gain some value until he disappoints the markets.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #45,416
  • Aug 2, 2012 12:48am Aug 2, 2012 12:48am
Quoting PipTrapper
Good morning all

It's now comes down to Super Mario... the savior of the Euro. At least that is what he would like the world to believe. It would certainly put a nice feather in his cap so that when he returns to the private sector, he can get another nice job with Goldman Sachs with a much higher pay package than he had with them before.

http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8161/7...3d1a8d8a_b.jpg

As I fully expected, Benny seriously disappointed the markets yesterday. So now we wait for Mario to do the same. In order to fully understand...
funny
  • #45,417
  • Aug 2, 2012 12:53am Aug 2, 2012 12:53am
Quoting PipTrapper
Based on your trading style, that's a good idea. Today I expect some more Euro short covering leading up to Super Mario.

Although I expect the USD to continue gaining this morning (and to some extent even after Draghi), the Euro will gain some value until he disappoints the markets.
Possibly or just channeling... I moved my attention over the other pairs

A GU short just triggered after being rejected from the 1.5555/1.5565 area so I am now SHORT on the break of the 1.5533

I am not going crazy tonight and will be quick to move my trades to BE quickly and bank small profits.

I have placed pending EU sell stops At 1.2211 and 1.2199 as positional trades if you are indeed proven correct my friend
  • #45,418
  • Aug 2, 2012 12:54am Aug 2, 2012 12:54am
Quoting KillerWhale
Short from 1.2254, target 1.2172

very interesting profile ..... sorry m joking only.
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  • #45,419
  • Aug 2, 2012 1:08am Aug 2, 2012 1:08am
ECB: HERO OR ZERO?

02/08/12 @ 07:31 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

The ECB promised, now markets expect it to deliver. If it doesnt, then we can expect yields in Italy and Spain to move higher and the single currency to take a hit. Whether the ECB President, Draghi, intended to create such expectation in the market when he spoke of doing whatever it takes last week, the fact remains that markets are, by their very nature, sensitive to any signs that European leaders are getting a grip on the current crisis rather than just muddling through. But simply pledging to re-start the ECBs bond-buying program wont be enough. In fact it could easily have the reverse effect as private investors fear that they will be behind the ECB in any future restructuring of debt. The issue is whether Germany is going to budge from its pragmatic stance. For the current ECB presidents part, the upside is that he has at least shown his willingness to get stuck in vs. his predecessor who appeared to stand on the sidelines. In itself, this is promising, given that the ECB remains the only pan-eurozone institution with any real bite and the with ability to offer credible support to financial markets.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #45,420
  • Aug 2, 2012 1:15am Aug 2, 2012 1:15am
Quoting PipTrapper
Good morning all


http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8161/7...3d1a8d8a_b.jpg
Will look good in Calvin Klein
.
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