- #45,223
- Jul 31, 2012 2:45pm Jul 31, 2012 2:45pm
- | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: AL -a reVerse psyChology | 265 Posts
This is just an opinion.
The bullish / bearish market for EUR/USD if its fall under the following conditions :
Bullish if :
1. The announcement by ECB's President are +ve for Euro.
2. US Rate Cut.
3. FOMC announce - QE3.
4. US - NFP -ve.
5. CBs interventions.
Bearish if :
1. The ECB's announcement does not met the market expectation.
2. No Rate cut.
3. No QE3.
4. US - NFP +ve.
Trade safe & have a sound trading plan. GL and many green pips.
The bullish / bearish market for EUR/USD if its fall under the following conditions :
Bullish if :
1. The announcement by ECB's President are +ve for Euro.
2. US Rate Cut.
3. FOMC announce - QE3.
4. US - NFP -ve.
5. CBs interventions.
Bearish if :
1. The ECB's announcement does not met the market expectation.
2. No Rate cut.
3. No QE3.
4. US - NFP +ve.
Trade safe & have a sound trading plan. GL and many green pips.
- #45,226
- Edited 7:46pm Jul 31, 2012 7:15pm | Edited 7:46pm
- Joined Jul 2012 | Status: CME seat owner | 6,134 Posts
2328 triggered, 4hr bollinger band at 2340 and 88 fib of June retracement at 2343
So many bearish divergences yet still this thing goes up.
I'm off to play some golf,
good luck and green pips for everyone
Took some off the table at 2288 though in anticipation of tomorrow.
Also took some profit in Aussie at 1.0470
NZD/USD shorts doing nothing might dump this one soon and wait for 82 area
On an unrelated note had 9 pars today, a record for a shitty golfer like me who can only drive the ball 220 yards. Shot +4 on the back 9 with 12 putts. +13 total with 28 putts (had a +4 on the first hole)
The only way I would prefer making money more than FX trading would be to be a professional golfer. What an awesome life that would be.
Will be back to full-time day trading (and posting more during London) on Sunday.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
- #45,227
- Jul 31, 2012 9:31pm Jul 31, 2012 9:31pm
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Whn Market Warms u..U keep it Kool | 6,578 Posts
- #45,228
- Jul 31, 2012 9:53pm Jul 31, 2012 9:53pm
- Joined Jul 2012 | Status: CME seat owner | 6,134 Posts
EU hourly chart.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
- #45,230
- Jul 31, 2012 10:38pm Jul 31, 2012 10:38pm
- Joined Jul 2012 | Status: CME seat owner | 6,134 Posts
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
- #45,231
- Jul 31, 2012 10:42pm Jul 31, 2012 10:42pm
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Whn Market Warms u..U keep it Kool | 6,578 Posts
- #45,232
- Edited 11:01pm Jul 31, 2012 10:48pm | Edited 11:01pm
- Joined Jul 2012 | Status: CME seat owner | 6,134 Posts
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
- #45,233
- Jul 31, 2012 11:03pm Jul 31, 2012 11:03pm
- Joined Jul 2012 | Status: CME seat owner | 6,134 Posts
NZD is so unbelievably strong.
I can't even imagine what it will do when USD goes bearish again
Edit: Sorry, forgot this is EurAnalysis
I can't even imagine what it will do when USD goes bearish again
Edit: Sorry, forgot this is EurAnalysis
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
- #45,234
- Jul 31, 2012 11:10pm Jul 31, 2012 11:10pm
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 11,838 Posts
Trading Levels with WRBs
- #45,236
- Jul 31, 2012 11:46pm Jul 31, 2012 11:46pm
- Joined Jul 2012 | Status: CME seat owner | 6,134 Posts
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
- #45,238
- Jul 31, 2012 11:53pm Jul 31, 2012 11:53pm
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 11,838 Posts
Trading Levels with WRBs
- #45,240
- Aug 1, 2012 12:04am Aug 1, 2012 12:04am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Good morning everybody
These are very interesting times indeed. The hopium train is chugging down the tracks that will take them across the bridge between Bearville and Bullville, yet nobody knows if there is such a bridge. So the question remains... "Is the bridge out?"
http://www.dreamstime.com/broken-bri...umb9782421.jpg
Today we will get the first report from Benny as to whether or not the FOMC has decided (or seems ready to decide in September) to build a QE3 bridge. In my opinion, there will be no such bridge this month, although a hint from Benny that he's got his finger on the button may be all that is needed to feed the hopium. Any hint that QE3 is not in the cards this year (or a lack of any hint that it is), and that would be strike one against the hopium train, and focus will turn towards Draghi tomorrow.
Tomorrow will be Draghi's turn to have a go at creating an ECB-QE bridge. Let's look at that a bit closer. Last Thursday, Draghi made some very bold statements. Here is the only one the market is focused on...
"Within our mandate ECB ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro... and believe me it will be enough"
It's easy to see from the above statement that the market will take that as a huge promise to intervene. However, the market is known for reading stuff between the lines when such "between the line stuff" doesn't exist. My view on this statement is that the "Whatever it takes" bit is very much tied to the "Within our mandate" bit. It is not within the ECB's mandate to finance or contribute towards financing government debt. Doing so will be a violation of treaties and subject to litigation from those states opposed to such action... not to mention the negative impact such a move will have on the ECB's credibility as an institution. I'll post more on this tomorrow.
Today we have some economic data coming out of both Europe and the US. I'm not sure there will be much impact from it as the market will be more focused on the FOMC statement at 18:15 GMT. However, the data could influence the market's net sentiment after the FOMC statement is released. Check the calendar for details and times regarding the EZ and US data. Of note among the data releases of course is the ADP Non-Farm release at 12:15 GMT.
From a technical perspective, I am focusing on the developments of the H4 chart. To me it is very much in a consolidation range of indecision. Looking at the chart below, I see a huge potential inverted H/S pattern which (if played out) could take us all the way up to 1.2750 area. The neckline on this inverted H/S comes in around 1.2440/45 area. On the bearish side, we also have a smaller potential H/S pattern on H4 with a neckline at 1.2220 and a completion target of 1.2040/50. There is lots of confluence with the above mentioned levels in terms of fibo levels and trendline/channel resistance/support, so those numbers make lots of sense. First level to be violated and the technical picture shifts. Until then, it could go either way.
Obviously my sentiment is bearish risk. Benny will do nothing and Draghi's actions will be more Euro bearish in the mid to long term. Today's ADP NFP and Friday's US NFP numbers will not impress, but they will not be bad enough to justify QE3. The USD will resume its bullish direction, commodities will come down on dollar strength and the markets/economy will continue to chug along slowly. I could be wrong but the probabilities are on my side. In the end, anything is possible. As I have said many times before, I position myself based on probabilities and not possibilities.
E/U H4
These are very interesting times indeed. The hopium train is chugging down the tracks that will take them across the bridge between Bearville and Bullville, yet nobody knows if there is such a bridge. So the question remains... "Is the bridge out?"
http://www.dreamstime.com/broken-bri...umb9782421.jpg
Today we will get the first report from Benny as to whether or not the FOMC has decided (or seems ready to decide in September) to build a QE3 bridge. In my opinion, there will be no such bridge this month, although a hint from Benny that he's got his finger on the button may be all that is needed to feed the hopium. Any hint that QE3 is not in the cards this year (or a lack of any hint that it is), and that would be strike one against the hopium train, and focus will turn towards Draghi tomorrow.
Tomorrow will be Draghi's turn to have a go at creating an ECB-QE bridge. Let's look at that a bit closer. Last Thursday, Draghi made some very bold statements. Here is the only one the market is focused on...
"Within our mandate ECB ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro... and believe me it will be enough"
It's easy to see from the above statement that the market will take that as a huge promise to intervene. However, the market is known for reading stuff between the lines when such "between the line stuff" doesn't exist. My view on this statement is that the "Whatever it takes" bit is very much tied to the "Within our mandate" bit. It is not within the ECB's mandate to finance or contribute towards financing government debt. Doing so will be a violation of treaties and subject to litigation from those states opposed to such action... not to mention the negative impact such a move will have on the ECB's credibility as an institution. I'll post more on this tomorrow.
Today we have some economic data coming out of both Europe and the US. I'm not sure there will be much impact from it as the market will be more focused on the FOMC statement at 18:15 GMT. However, the data could influence the market's net sentiment after the FOMC statement is released. Check the calendar for details and times regarding the EZ and US data. Of note among the data releases of course is the ADP Non-Farm release at 12:15 GMT.
From a technical perspective, I am focusing on the developments of the H4 chart. To me it is very much in a consolidation range of indecision. Looking at the chart below, I see a huge potential inverted H/S pattern which (if played out) could take us all the way up to 1.2750 area. The neckline on this inverted H/S comes in around 1.2440/45 area. On the bearish side, we also have a smaller potential H/S pattern on H4 with a neckline at 1.2220 and a completion target of 1.2040/50. There is lots of confluence with the above mentioned levels in terms of fibo levels and trendline/channel resistance/support, so those numbers make lots of sense. First level to be violated and the technical picture shifts. Until then, it could go either way.
Obviously my sentiment is bearish risk. Benny will do nothing and Draghi's actions will be more Euro bearish in the mid to long term. Today's ADP NFP and Friday's US NFP numbers will not impress, but they will not be bad enough to justify QE3. The USD will resume its bullish direction, commodities will come down on dollar strength and the markets/economy will continue to chug along slowly. I could be wrong but the probabilities are on my side. In the end, anything is possible. As I have said many times before, I position myself based on probabilities and not possibilities.
E/U H4
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it