EurAnalysis

1 DAY RELATIVE PERFORMANCE

http://www.finviz.com/fut_image.ashx...93358809398750

requested indi

This is just an opinion.

The bullish / bearish market for EUR/USD if its fall under the following conditions :

Bullish if :

1. The announcement by ECB's President are +ve for Euro.
2. US Rate Cut.
3. FOMC announce - QE3.
4. US - NFP -ve.
5. CBs interventions.

Bearish if :

1. The ECB's announcement does not met the market expectation.
2. No Rate cut.
3. No QE3.
4. US - NFP +ve.

Trade safe & have a sound trading plan. GL and many green pips.

Hi,

if trend is bullish, u can raise objective at +/- 1.30 (the gap on picture, may 2012).

LAter,

S.T

Hi,

The gap will be closed . Time will tell. Have to go, see u London / NY open.

GL and trade safe.

Monthly close below 2287, good news for shorts

Took some off the table at 2288 though in anticipation of tomorrow.

Also took some profit in Aussie at 1.0470

NZD/USD shorts doing nothing might dump this one soon and wait for 82 area

On an unrelated note had 9 pars today, a record for a shitty golfer like me who can only drive the ball 220 yards. Shot +4 on the back 9 with 12 putts. +13 total with 28 putts (had a +4 on the first hole)

The only way I would prefer making money more than FX trading would be to be a professional golfer. What an awesome life that would be.

Will be back to full-time day trading (and posting more during London) on Sunday.

EU hourly chart.

Finished the month of July +5.75%.

You know the dollar is weak when sell side volume on the Euro looks like the normal long side volume.

Technically we are in a short-term (100 day) accending channel for this pair, my calculation is reaching 1.24 level area before news on Thursday.

Yes that channel bottom is holding so far. Bounced off it perfectly at 2280

Would paint a nice double top at the trendline resistance from 1.3280 if a retest of 1.24 happened. Wouldn't be surprised if they took out the stops there and brought it to 1.2440 where there is huge resistance.

It's ignoring all tech resistance and just charging up, a sign that it is going a lot higher and your call of 1.24 is probably spot on

These bastards love to paint charts. They put in a monthly close below 87 to fake everyone out (although that probably does mean its going lower, just not until later this week/next week. Good thing I closed my short at 91

NZD is so unbelievably strong.

I can't even imagine what it will do when USD goes bearish again

Edit: Sorry, forgot this is EurAnalysis

The overnight / Asian retrace held at the 61.8% level and today's fib expansions suggest the 2400 area for todays target.......subject to any news shocks......ADP Non Farm data at 8:15 EST and Helicopter Ben is on later at 14:15 EST....

For now, we have had a nice pre F O pop up off todays DP up to the MR 1 level at 2314.....a retrace staying above the 00 level would be a good opportunity for an add on buy.....

beautiful charts

E/U 4hr

Made the chart more clear with only the main fib retracement from 1.49 May 2011

That level is very nice. Was S and R couple of times. Red level on my chart.
Also 61.8 fib from one of the downswings.

Might I suggest that it would be even clearer if you removed the grid - you can always activate the period separators.....right click on chart, open properties, then common.....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

Dam Euro aint going down wow

Good morning everybody

These are very interesting times indeed. The hopium train is chugging down the tracks that will take them across the bridge between Bearville and Bullville, yet nobody knows if there is such a bridge. So the question remains... "Is the bridge out?"

http://www.dreamstime.com/broken-bri...umb9782421.jpg

Today we will get the first report from Benny as to whether or not the FOMC has decided (or seems ready to decide in September) to build a QE3 bridge. In my opinion, there will be no such bridge this month, although a hint from Benny that he's got his finger on the button may be all that is needed to feed the hopium. Any hint that QE3 is not in the cards this year (or a lack of any hint that it is), and that would be strike one against the hopium train, and focus will turn towards Draghi tomorrow.

Tomorrow will be Draghi's turn to have a go at creating an ECB-QE bridge. Let's look at that a bit closer. Last Thursday, Draghi made some very bold statements. Here is the only one the market is focused on...

"Within our mandate ECB ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro... and believe me it will be enough"

It's easy to see from the above statement that the market will take that as a huge promise to intervene. However, the market is known for reading stuff between the lines when such "between the line stuff" doesn't exist. My view on this statement is that the "Whatever it takes" bit is very much tied to the "Within our mandate" bit. It is not within the ECB's mandate to finance or contribute towards financing government debt. Doing so will be a violation of treaties and subject to litigation from those states opposed to such action... not to mention the negative impact such a move will have on the ECB's credibility as an institution. I'll post more on this tomorrow.

Today we have some economic data coming out of both Europe and the US. I'm not sure there will be much impact from it as the market will be more focused on the FOMC statement at 18:15 GMT. However, the data could influence the market's net sentiment after the FOMC statement is released. Check the calendar for details and times regarding the EZ and US data. Of note among the data releases of course is the ADP Non-Farm release at 12:15 GMT.

From a technical perspective, I am focusing on the developments of the H4 chart. To me it is very much in a consolidation range of indecision. Looking at the chart below, I see a huge potential inverted H/S pattern which (if played out) could take us all the way up to 1.2750 area. The neckline on this inverted H/S comes in around 1.2440/45 area. On the bearish side, we also have a smaller potential H/S pattern on H4 with a neckline at 1.2220 and a completion target of 1.2040/50. There is lots of confluence with the above mentioned levels in terms of fibo levels and trendline/channel resistance/support, so those numbers make lots of sense. First level to be violated and the technical picture shifts. Until then, it could go either way.

Obviously my sentiment is bearish risk. Benny will do nothing and Draghi's actions will be more Euro bearish in the mid to long term. Today's ADP NFP and Friday's US NFP numbers will not impress, but they will not be bad enough to justify QE3. The USD will resume its bullish direction, commodities will come down on dollar strength and the markets/economy will continue to chug along slowly. I could be wrong but the probabilities are on my side. In the end, anything is possible. As I have said many times before, I position myself based on probabilities and not possibilities.

E/U H4