EurAnalysis

Looks like we'll be range bound until either Bernanke or Draghi say something that's either encouraging or disappointing for the hopium wagon.

Till then, there's really not much to do, so I'm heading to the beach (with my tablet).

http://ak0.picdn.net/shutterstock/vi...nic-tablet.jpg

what are the specification of ur tablet and which brand is it?

PipTrapper,

What do you use this information for? Levels?
For example, in the case of EUR/USD: Do you expect an up-bounce from buyers stepping in at around 1.2250/60 with further support at 1.2215? And sellers stepping in and short at and above 1.23? Please clarify.

It's a Vodafone SmartTab10 manufactured by ZTE

GENERAL2G NetworkGSM 850 / 900 / 1800 / 1900
3G NetworkHSDPA 2100
Announced2012, February
Status Available. Released 2012, February
DISPLAYTypeTFT capacitive touchscreen, 16M colors
Size800 x 1280 pixels, 10.0 inches (~151 ppi pixel density)
MultitouchYes, up to 10 fingers
SOUNDAlert typesYes
Loudspeaker Yes, with stereo speakers
3.5mm jackYes
MEMORYCard slotmicroSD, up to 32GB
Internal16 GB (12.7 GB user available)
DATAGPRSYes
EDGEYes
Speed: HSDPA 14.4 Mbps, HSUPA 5.76 Mbps
WLAN: Wi-Fi 802.11 b/g/n, Wi-Fi hotspot
Bluetooth: Yes, v2.1 with A2DP, EDR
USBYes, v2.0
CAMERAPrimary5 MP, 2592 х 1944 pixels, autofocus
FeaturesGeo-tagging
VideoYes, 720p
SecondaryYes, 2 MP
FEATURESOSAndroid OS, v3.2
ChipsetQualcomm MSM8260 Snapdragon
CPUDual-core 1.2 GHz Scorpion
GPUAdreno 220
SensorsAccelerometer, compass
MessagingEmail, Push Mail, IM, RSS
BrowserHTML, Adobe Flash
GPS: Yes, with A-GPS support
JavaYes, via Java MIDP emulator
ColorsBlack
- SNS integration
- MP4/H.264/H.263 player
- MP3/WAV/eAAC+ player
- Organizer
- Image/video editor
- Document viewer
- Google Search, Maps, Gmail, YouTube, Calendar, Google Talk, Picasa integration
- Voice memo
- Predictive text input
BATTERYStandard battery, Li-Ion

http://st2.gsmarena.com/vv/pics/voda...-smart-tab.jpg

Yes I expect buyers to jump in at the indicated bid levels and sellers to jump in at the indicated offer levels. However, how strong those buyers and sellers are can only be determined once price reaches the indicated levels. I use this info to match up with other indications of support/resistance and supply/demand zones. When I see strong confluence, I choose as an entry point in the direction of the long term (H4 and above) trend.

if the upmove wasnt so damn fundamentally backed then that would have been one juicy head and shoulder on the H4

http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...0120731171115/

High beta currencies continue to ride on risk appetite and strengthen broadly today while European majors are lagging behind and stuck in range against dollar and yen. US Treasury Secretary Geithner met with German Finance Minister Schaeuble yesterday and issued a joint statement afterwards. They expressed "confidence in euro area member states' efforts to reform and move towards greater integration" and hailed improvements in Ireland and Portugal, as well as the "considerable efforts by Spain and Italy. Meanwhile, they also pledged to "cooperate closely with their partners when advancing the policy agenda in autumn to further stabilize global and European economies." And that included emphasis on the need for "ongoing international cooperation and coordination to achieve sustainable public finances, reduce global macroeconomic imbalances, and restore growth." Meanwhile, Greece was omitted from the statement. Geithner also met with ECB president Draghi but no statement was issued.

In Greece, the coalition leaders are still struggling to reach agreement over the EUR 115.b austerity and could seek extension on the bailout program. Democratic Left leader Kouvelis said that discussionis will continue in the coming days. Prime Minister Samara met with coalition leaders for more than two hours yesterday but has yet to agree on a final agreement. It's reported that Greece would push for a two-year extension to meet the fiscal target in planning the new austerity measures. Finance Minister Yannis noted that the choices by the leaders "must not nullify our ability to renegotiate and mainly not to nullify the country's ability to remain in the euro zone."

After all, the main focus this week remains on the central bank meetings, in particular ECB press conference. It should be noted again that Draghi's comments raised hope for ECB to restart the bond buying program and expectations are high. Spanish yield tumbled sharply since making a record high at 7.751% last week and is comfortably below 7% level at 6.63%. Stocks were also boost by overall risk appetite which in turned sent high-beta currencies higher. Euro, while being firm against dollar and yen, lagged behind and has indeed dripped to record low against Aussie and Loonie yesterday.

On the data front, Japan manufacturing PMI dropped further to 47.9 in July but unemployment rate improved to 4.3% in June. Household spending rose 1.6% yoy in June, housing starts dropped -0.2% yoy. UK Gfk consumer sentiment was unchanged at -29 in July. Australia building approvals dropped-2.5% mom in June. New Zealand NBNZ business confidence dropped to 15.1 in July. German retail sales dropped -0.1% mom in June. Swiss UBS consumption indicator rose to 1.6 in June. Eurozone employment data will be a focus in European session with CPI flash. Canada GDP, IPPI and RMPI, US personal income and spending, Chicago PMI and consumer confidence will be featured in US session.
USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0001; (P) 1.0027; (R1) 1.0041; More.
USD/CAD's fall extends further to as low as 1.0003 so far today. Intraday bias remains on the downside and current choppy fall from 1.0445 is going to go deeper and could target a retest on 0.9799 low. On the upside, above 1.0052 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But break of 1.0231 resistance is needed to indicate near term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain mildly bearish.

In the bigger picture, correction from 1.0656 is finished with three waves down to 0.9799 and rise from there is resuming the medium term rebound from 0.9406. Such rise from 0.9406 is either a correction to fall from 1.3063 or the third leg of the whole consolidation pattern from 2007 low of 0.9056. In either case, USD/CAD should target 38.2% retracement of 1.3063 to 0.9406 at 1.0803 first and possibly further to 100% projection of 0.9406 to 1.0656 from 0.9799 at 1.1049 before completion. Break of 0.9799 support is needed to invalidate this view or we'll stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20120731a1.gif

Die Welt magazine reports German FDP party against ESM banking license, contradicting what Nowotny said last week.

http://www.merkfunds.com/merk-perspe...-07-31-insight

Snippet:

July 31, 2012

When the euro was launched, the European Central Bank (ECB) held approximately 15% of its assets in gold. That ratio has remained reasonably stable, giving rise to a variety of chatter, including suggestions that it may displace the U.S. dollar. We pursue the question on whether the ECB’s gold holdings are an accident or strategy. http://www.merkfunds.com/images/2012...or-insight.jpg


The ECB marks its gold holdings to market, i.e. uses market prices for gold. The ECB was selling gold from the inception of the euro until the onset of the financial crisis; since then, the ECB’s gold holdings have remained stable. To understand the motivation, one needs to note that when one refers to ECB gold holdings, one is actually talking about Euro area gold holdings. While the ECB holds some gold, most gold is held by the respective central banks (this is not a discussion of where such gold is physically located): http://www.merkfunds.com/images/2012...d-holdings.jpg

Relevant is that each nation in the Eurozone pursues its own agenda with regard to its gold holdings. Germany has resisted political pressure within Germany to sell gold, as Bundesbank (Buba) profits would need to be transferred to the government; the hawkish Buba has indicated that it would be considered selling gold to help finance the government’s deficit. Italy, as one can see, has not sold any gold. Conversely, as a percentage of their holdings, the Netherlands had been rather eager to sell gold up until the financial crisis; Portugal, too, was an aggressive seller. As one can see, gold sales are not particularly related to the financial health of a Eurozone nation, but more to the cultural attitude in the respective nations towards gold.

Conclusions...


From what we see, central banks have been scared into holding gold since the onset of the financial crisis. Beyond that, we don’t see an active strategy at the ECB to keep its gold reserves at 15% of total assets.

Instead, the ECB’s comparatively measured approach has simply lead to a reasonably stable percentage of gold reserves. Of course that was before ECB President Draghi said on July 26, 2012, that he shall do “whatever it takes to preserve the euro.” (an interpretation of that may be that more money printing is on the way). For now, the cultural differences in responding to the financial crisis (Europe: think austerity; US: think growth) suggest that the euro should outperform the U.S. dollar over the long term, assuming the not-so-negligible scenario of a more severe fallout from the Eurozone debt crisis won’t materialize.

It may help to keep in mind that historically inflation is the response to a deflationary shock. If market forces were left to themselves, we believe the credit bust of 2008 would have caused a major deflationary shock. It’s the reaction of policy makers that fight market forces that may lead to inflation. Bernanke as of late brushed off such pessimism. As the charts above show, however, gold has been a sensitive – and sensible I might add - indicator to the trigger-friendliness of our central bankers.

We have long argued that investors may want to take a diversified approach to something as mundane as cash. Please sign up to our newsletter to be informed as we discuss global dynamics and their impact on currencies. Please also follow me on Twitter to receive real-time updates on the economy, currencies, and global dynamics. Axel Merk
President and Chief Investment Officer, Merk Investments
Merk Investments, Manager of the Merk Funds

This report was prepared by Merk Investments LLC, and reflects the current opinion of the author. It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any investment security, nor provide investment advice.
Let’s cross the Atlantic to see whether the ECB’s gold strategy is undermining the U.S. dollar. The Fed’s gold stock is valued at $44.22 per fine troy ounce. For purposes of the chart below, we adjust the Fed’s gold holdings to market prices:

“I am more concerned about the return of my money than the return on my money.”
Mark Twain

GoldSwitzerland has posted a new item

Alf Field confirms next gold target as $4,500

Alf Field, the most eminent gold forecaster, has issued a new article in which
he confirms that gold has now finished its correction and that the next move
will be a "violent upside action ....... targeted to reach $4,500.

Egon von Greyerz


WHAT HAPPENED TO GOLD? – PART 2
By Alf Field
There are no certainties in the investment [...]

You may view the full post at
http://goldswitzerland.com/alf-field...arget-as-4500/

Sincerely,

GoldSwitzerland

Italian govt wins confidence vote on spending cuts in upper house senate, measure now moves to lower house

Austerity is almost happening.

Look at EURCHF & EURUSD ...

It's still valid. We only have the left shoulder and the head so far. Now painting the right shoulder. So far we neither have a confirmation nor a failure. It could still go either way... both technically and fundamentally.

Orderboard (updated)

Written by Pete Jackson
July 31, 2012 at 11:01 GMT

EUR/USD: Bids 1.2250/60, sell stops through 1.2225 ahead of Fibonacci supp around 1.2215 (50% retracement of July 24 low/Jul 27 high). Offers from 1.2300 up to 1.2330. Buy stops through 1.2340. Decent sell orders up at 1.2380/00 ahead of barrier at 1.2400.

GBP/USD: Bids 1.5670/90 sell stops below. Offers 1.5760/70 ahead of tech res 100 day MA 1.5781 and more offers 1.5790/00 ahead of barrier 1.5800, likely buy stops above

EUR/GBP: Strong bids 0.7790/00. and 0.7750/60 (barrier 0.7750)Offers 0.7830/35 and larger at 0.7865/75 (0.7875 barrier)

USD/JPY: Large bids at 78.00/10 (rumoured semi official/Kampo). Sell stops through 77.90 and 77.75. Offers start from 78.20/30 fromJapanexporters, ahead of tech res Ichimoku Tenkan line around 78.55 up to 79.00. Buy stops through 78.70 and 79.00 ahead of tech res 79.10/25 (79.13/79.22- 200/55 day MA’s)

EUR/JPY: Bids 95.75/85 and 95. 50/60. Offers 96.30/40 and 96.55/65 likely buy stops above

AUD/JPY: Bids/tech supp 81.70/80 (81.76 100 day MA) sell stops through 81.50, tech support 81.30/35 (81.34 200 day MA), more sell stops through 81.00. Offers 82.30/50 and tech res 82.80/90 (82.86 May 3 high)

EUR/CHF: Bids 1.2000/10(SNB), Offers 1.2025/30 buy stops through 1.2035 and through 1.2050

USD/CHF: Bids 0.9740/50 and 0.9700/10, offers 0.9810/20 and 0.9840/50

AUD/USD: Bids 1.0500/10 and 1.0480/90, some sell stops below ahead of more bids 1.0445/55 (exporters). Offers 1.0530/40 (talk of possible RBA commercial selling interest) ahead of tech resistance 1.0555/60 (1.0556 Mar 27 high) Also talk of 1.0550 barrier option interest.

EUR/AUD: Tech supp 1.1650/60. Initial res 1.1680/00 and stronger up at 1.1750/60

NZD/USD: Buy stops through 0.8125 ahead of offers 0.8140/50, bids 0.8075/85 some weak sell stops below ahead of tech support 0.8050/55 and 0.8000/10

USD/CAD: Bids 1.0000/10 ahead of a barrier at parity, likely sell stops just below ahead of tech supp 0.9955/60. Offers 1.0045/55

Summer trading is slow as molasses. I'm probably going to take August off and have a little vacation with the wife and her sister.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.p...t=va&aid=32125

Snippet:


"Money makes the world go around

A mark, a yen, a buck, or pound
Is all that makes the world go around."—song from Cabaret

The economy is merely a sum of money, not practices that sustain the oikos, and the money that makes up the sum is equally valued whether it results from virtuous or vicious, good or bad, constructive or destructive, humane or inhumane, legal or illegal, beneficent or malevolent practices. Whether people benefit or are injured is never an economic concern. People, like everything else that is not monetary, are irrelevant.


Can you imagine anything more absurd? No matter, because that's how the economy really works. It has no relationship to people and their welfare. Money made by a destructive activity is just as good as money made from a creative one. Money made by stealing is just as good as money made honestly (as every banker knows). Laundered money is just as good as clean money. Money made by killing (here or abroad) is just as good as money made by giving birth. That's how the economy works. Neither people nor the quality of anything matters; only the money made does, and the political chorus chants,

Money, money, money, money.
Money, money, money, money,

all this in a nation comprised of people, eighty percent of whom claim to be followers of a deity who proclaims that the love of money is the root of all evil, and not a single cleric complains.
That, dear reader, is how America works. The economy is merely a sum of money, not practices that sustain the oikos, and the money that makes up the sum is equally valued whether it results from virtuous or vicious, good or bad, constructive or destructive, humane or inhumane, legal or illegal, beneficent or malevolent practices. All of that lucre is filthy.
Whether people benefit or are injured is never an economic concern. People, like everything else that is not monetary, are irrelevant which makes this economy totally immoral. This message from a prominent financial advisor proves it:
"As investors, we absolutely must not let our political beliefs, the news media, or anything else stand in the way of our quest to grow our hard-earned money into lasting wealth."


John Kozy is a retired professor of philosophy and logic who writes on social, political, and economic issues. After serving in the U.S. Army during the Korean War, he spent 20 years as a university professor and another 20 years working as a writer. He has published a textbook in formal logic commercially, in academic journals and a small number of commercial magazines, and has written a number of guest editorials for newspapers. His on-line pieces can be found on http://www.jkozy.com/ and he can be emailed from that site's homepage.

The pictures have been leaked.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_0rfzcsJ9uY..._threesome.jpg

Nice

Hi friends
15 is still bearish...

Cheers
aligater