EurAnalysis

One cluster f#kc after another. My prediction is ze Germans will say Auf wiedersehen to the eurozone FIRST! They will not allow ECB to print money!

Any One Here Trades In Silver[XAGUSD] ??
Any Long Term Bullish trend Seen ??

Heads up: Rating agency DBRS has issued statement that Italy sovereign will be downgraded by one or two notches by August 22nd. This is a ratings agency that is respected and followed by the ECB.

All depends what the stated reason is. If it's because of unsustainable borrowing costs, the ECB can fix it by buying Italian debt on the secondary markets. If it's because of unsustainable debt levels, then Italy is Eff'd

MANY THANKS PT - For explaining the situation in a VERY SIMPLE YET POINT BLANK

ECB chief ombudsman examined Draghi lobby membership

By Sven Becker and Andreas Macho
http://cdn3.spiegel.de/images/image-...9free-bcer.jpghttp://www.spiegel.de/static/sys/v9/icons/ic_lupe.png

REUTERS

ECB chief Draghi: Doubtful proximity between banks, politicians and banking supervision



As soon as you took office, there were discussions about his past in the U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs - now has Mario Draghi, head of the European Central Bank, and problems with the EU ombudsman. It's about the membership of an influential banking lobby organization.
http://www.spiegel.de/static/sys/v9/icons/i-button.jpg

Berlin - It was an exclusive round, which had been found at the invitation of the Group of Thirty in a Washington conference center together: The meeting was opened in October 2010 by Jacob A. Frenkel, the former chairman of the board of JP Morgan Chase International. The whole day discussing senior bankers and politicians about the financial impact of the banking crisis. Around noon and walked into Mario Draghi , the podium, at that time governor of the Bank of Italy, to discuss reforms to the financial market. Photos of the day to show it together with former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker.
ANZEIGE

The International Banking Seminar of the Group of Thirty (G30) is held every year to coincide with the fall meeting of the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) and World Bank held and is accessible only to selected visitors. Behind the G30 hides a group of leading bankers and economists who wish to make claims to influence decisions in the financial sector. Prominent members include senior representatives of Goldman Sachs , Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase International and former and current heads of central banks. Axel Weber, former president of the Bundesbank, is also one of the influential Round. For many years, Mario Draghi, a member of the G30. This did not change anything, as Draghi last year to head the European Central Bank rose. The G30 commented on his career jump even euphoric in a statement: Draghi, one of those members of the Club, providing an even more challenging position would have believed in the global economy.
But the acclaimed dual role brings the Italians now a problem: The EU Ombudsman Nikiforos Diamandouros has instituted investigations against Draghi and sent to the Central Bank a mandatory questionnaire. Up to 31 October, the ECB will announce how they rated Draghi's role in the G30 and whether it includes in its membership a conflict of interest.
The European Ombudsman investigates complaints against EU institutions, which can be introduced both by citizens and organizations. For the procedure caused a stir recently with the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). Thus, the Ombudsman has asked the EFSA in December 2011 to strengthen its rules and procedures to prevent conflicts of interest. The reason for the change process had provided an EFSA Department Head for a private biotechnology company.
"A clear conflict of interest"
Has introduced Kenneth Hair, whose organization Corporate Europe Observatory, which appeal to the EU Ombudsman, sees a clear conflict of interest between Draghi's membership of the G30 and his office: "does the ECB in an ever-increasing role in bank regulation one, "says Hair. "It should prepare us to worry that just one member of the G30 is their boss."
http://adserv.quality-channel.de/Rea...f4c?_RM_EMPTY_


The central bank acknowledged that the issues of the Ombudsman had received it, dismissed the allegations of conflict of interest back, however. The investigation of the EU Ombudsman throws a spotlight once again on the proximity between banks, politicians and bank supervision. Until the financial crisis, it was common, especially in the United States and in England, that senior bankers working in the course of her career second, also for the government. Especially employees of the U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs frequently changed sides. The findings defined as the former U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson previously served as CEO of U.S. Bank.
To the ECB chief Mario Draghi, there had been discussions already when he took office. The 64-year-old worked 2002-2005 as Vice President at Goldman Sachs International and was responsible for European operations. The bank is said to have helped Greece to conceal the huge budget deficit of the country. Greece is the only way I can join the euro. Draghi denies to this day that it was aware of the controversial business.

http://www.ino.com/blog/2012/07/all-...-fight-crisis/

Snippet:

European Central Bank president Mario Draghi has already taken Europe’s monetary authority into uncharted territory.

Now, with the debt crisis in Europe threatening further disaster, he may have to push it even farther into the unknown to save the euro.

The 17 countries that use the euro are struggling as economies across the region face deepening recessions. Spain and Italy, the two chief trouble spots, are threatened with a financial collapse that could tear the 13-year old currency union apart and rock the global economy.

Spain’s bond borrowing costs, or yields, have hit record highs recently as it tries to prop up its stricken banking sector and meet requests for financial aid from its regional governments. That has raised fears the country may be the next to seek a bailout from the other eurozone countries, following Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Cyprus. Italy, attempting to keep a handle on its debts in a stagnant economy, is also feeling the heat.

Then last Thursday, Draghi sharply raised expectations for more central bank action when he vowed the ECB would do “whatever it takes” to save the 17-country euro, and that “believe me, it will be enough.” Markets jumped on the news, expecting that the bank could soon intervene in bond markets to drive down the borrowing costs that are threatening Spain and Italy.

In the days following Draghi’s comments, politicians across Europe have added their voices to pledges of action for the eurozone. First came a joint statement from Angela Merkel of Germany and France’s Francois Hollande, followed by another from Merkel and Italy’s Mario Monti. This was followed by the head of the eurozone’s finance ministers group, Jean-Claude Juncker, and German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble.

All eyes are on Draghi to see what the ECB can deliver.

Yet Draghi and the 23-member governing council face a key constraint: they must contend with the demands of fear-stricken financial markets on one side and its founding treaty on the other.

The 1992 treaty gives the bank an overriding mandate to control inflation first, and only then to seek other goals such as growth. It is forbidden from supporting the finances of eurozone governments. That’s different from other central banks, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, which have broader crisis-fighting powers.

The Fed is meeting this week and could decide to take more action to stimulate a weakening economy.

How far can Draghi go? The bank also has a meeting this week but could act at any time. Here are some possibilities _ and their drawbacks:

BUY GOVERNMENT BONDS:
Buying bonds drives up their prices, and pushes down their interest rates _ or yields. That’s because prices and yields move in opposite directions. Starting in May, 2010, the ECB intermittently bought more than (EURO)200 billion worth of bonds of shaky governments including Italy and Spain, on the open market.

DRAWBACK: The effort did not do much to calm the crisis. Its impact was blunted because the ECB stressed it was limited in amount and focused only on spreading the ECB’s interest rate policy throughout the eurozone. It is opposed by some, including Germany’s Bundesbank, which has a seat on the ECB’s board, as blurring the bounds between influencing interest rates _ the ECB’s job_ and helping government finances, which it can’t do.
Europe’s temporary bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, could buy bonds _ but has limited resources on its own.

TURNING THE BAILOUT FUND INTO A BANK:
By agreeing to a banking license for the European Stability Mechanism, the bailout fund set up by the countries that use the euro, the ECB would enable the fund to borrow from the ECB and use that money to buy the bonds of troubled governments from investors on the open market.
Because the ECB can create as much money as it wants in order to lend, the ESM could in theory raise several trillion euros if it had to. And because the ECB is not helping out governments directly, it can be argued the practice would not fall foul of the treaty.

“That is the No. 1 concrete thing they could do,” said Karl Whelan, an economist at University College Dublin and former staff economist at the Federal Reserve. “There is nothing illegal about it. People would stop staying the eurozone doesn’t have the firepower to fund Spain and Italy. It would be the end of that concern.”

DRAWBACK: Nonetheless, Draghi and others say the idea is still too close to financing governments. He made a forceful statement July 5 that the move would violate the ECB’s mandate and would mean violating its mandate, thus “destroying its credibility.”

Still, the ECB has reversed course on other issues during the crisis.

LEND TO BANKS:
The ECB could expand its lending to banks for short-term loans. It would do that by agreeing to ease its rules on what types of collateral it could take for banks for these loans. It has already done this several times before and also given banks unlimited credit.

It could also make a third offer of cheap, three-year loans to banks, after two rounds that handed out (EURO)1 trillion in December and February. Some banks used the money to buy government bonds. That’s allowed under the ECB treaty because the ECB can loan any amount to banks _ just not to governments.

DRAWBACK: Banks holding too much government debt is already one of the key risk factors in the crisis. A government default would hurt banks and cut off lending to the wider economy. More lending could make that worse.

CUT RATES:
Analysts say the ECB has room to cut the main refinancing rate it charges banks for loans from the current all-time low of 0.75 percent. It could also push the rate it pays banks for deposits _ currently zero _ into negative territory, a move aimed at pushing them to lend funds rather than stash them with the ECB. This could help bolster currently weak growth _ which would help government tax revenues and make it easier to pay debts _ and lower costs to shaky banks.

DRAWBACK: Rates are already very low and it’s not having much effect on business activity and borrowing.

Jonathan Loynes, chief European economist at Capital Economics in London, says Draghi’s remarks last week were a “pretty strong signal” the bank might intervene in government bond markets with limited purchases aimed at lowering countries’ borrowing costs, as it has before on a limited basis. Markets, however, appear to hope for that plus more, a comprehensive new approach.

“My guess is, the markets will be disappointed,” Loynes said. “There was a lot of emphasis on those three words, `Whatever it takes.’ “But there are three other words that are just as important: `Within our mandate.’”
By DAVID McHUGH
AP Business Writer

CurrencyMan:

Now we wait for news and rumors today and await start of 2 day FED meeting on Tuesday. This in my opinion is another TARP moment and that is the real reason Geithner is in Europe.

Assume nothing because there will be something that will happen. They all have everything to lose so they will do whatever they have to do.

We might not know what it is they did for months. Whatever they say accept they mean the opposite.

Politically Bernake is on shaky ground now with the US Public.

The Audit Bill in the House did not help him.

Europe is being run by Bernake because a failure there would affect the US economy so behind the scenes back room deals are being made.

PipTrapper has already explained how they do things. However this time they cannot escape the final curtain much longer.

My thoughts on the situation.

hope everyone is doing well. I am hanging in there. I have found that I trade better when I am looking at the herd less. the herd makes my trading too jumpy.

had a rough time from Feb-April but i am short from 3190 and added another at 2380 last friday. i'm covering at parity

Hey Red. It's been a long time buddy. Glad to see you back. Have you been lurking?

Remember this chart? Look how it's progressed so far.

Greece to push for an extension of bailout as well as spending cut plans!

hey, PT, good to see you! I sure do. i have that drawn on my whiteboard haha. I have been lurking intermittently. like I said, I have been making much more money by listening to my gut and removing outside influences. I don't even look at charts <1h anymore. typically 4h and daily

for me, I have to remove the emotion and trade like a business. a lot of outside influences can make it very tough to be disciplined on the emotional end of things. buy the rumor, sell the fact, supply & demand and keep the TF higher. that's all I can say

which planet ru living PT,they already own the whole friggin world.this the foking result of usury,end result is u lend money to oneself and pay compound interest on them to ecb,fed,BOE,BOJ,etc,etc and these satan worshipper live on that, sucking the blood of poor people.these fraud on played on people for centuries,and if u go through history u will see people who oppose them including socrates,jesus christ,moses,budha,mohammed been persecuted few of them killed and few come alive and on the whole they r quite successful in thier plans.

if u look at the mechanics of these people u will see the end result is bonds of government will be exchange for cash,they hold bonds charging interest on it and govt will spend cash and where does the interest come from,it will come from our pokets,by taxes and inflation(its nothing but coin cutting in modern sense).all these govt and institutions are such a fraud on common people,a mega ponzi scheme,where maddoff will feel he is a saint.

You're on the right track then. Hopefully one day will come when you have so much confidence in your system, that no noise from others will ever influence your conviction. At that point I will look forward to your posts

on that day, I will either be living on my private island or broke

g/l for the remainder of the year and then some

You too Red. Keep it up. When you get your private island, I expect an invitation

Somewhere like this maybe

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_-qGZ7JqpD1...ate+Island.jpg

i totally agree with u,smaller time frames are the fools play,i am not saying one cant make money but the thing is,its so difficult to keep the money and one give back the whole money plus some,one just need one mistake and its so easy for the mistake to come ur way,becos with so many in and out its difficult to keep ones objectivity and be sober.

say for example one is playing like loosing 15 pips and gain of 25 pips everytrade and it require for u to stuck on the wrong end with 45 pips loss and u hesitate and its almost immpossible for the person to cut that loss short becos of ones unsteady emotions due to so many ins and outs.when bigger,fundamental wave comes,its just tsunami,it takes everything with it.including all the fundmentals,technicals and sentimentals.
the best one can do is stay away from the field and position urself for the longer pull,take smaller position to sleeping point,compare to ur equity and put ur stop loss away from noise and pray to God to be humble..

with ur systems odds r in ur favour and its unlikely for u to go broke,GL

Hi...I'm new member and found this thread as most interesting and useful as well as informative discussion. Comparatively, I'm new in Fx trading than you guys and looking to learn a lot from you and follow your discussions.

I only do my trades on chart analysis and try to understand news factors from this thread discussions. Per my analysis using FIBO market might max rise up to 1.2391 to 1.2355, hold this area for today or max tomorrow and then fall again....and might rise again in coming weeks or months. in my point of view, recent news impact e.g. Greece position, Spain and Italy's economic condition and Germany's decision all these things will result a coming days downfall and their coming weeks/months effort might up the market in coming days.

To support my words, find a screenshot of of my analysis in this link.... analysis-h4screenshot

WHAT!!! You mean they don't ALREADY own it?

Daily will print a 3 bar bearish swing