EurAnalysis

Yep. First sign was hours ago when we broke below 1.2240

Touché
My comment was meant to be sarcastic

Well Good night folks. Marge is waiting for me.

Enjoy your snuggles

Awesome TP hit at 22333 while I was gone

Buy limit with tight stop at 1.22222 not quite hit.

First test of blue MA yielded some support as expected. Also 4hr channel bottom and 113.0 fib extension of June retracement


If 1.2262 area fails then I'm looking at 1.2295/00 retest before more downside.

E/U 4hr

Almost scaled back in at 62, but I'm going to be patient.

Sir...that chart...it hurts

Welcome , I am new too.

Make sure you read the rules on the first page

That's what people keep telling me. I have no problem viewing it. Price absolutely love those thick red fibs.

It does have a lot of color to the chart, I love color

edit: is this any better? this is my setup at home, I'm out of town atm. I really miss this setup personally. A lot harder to see scalp opportunities without it, for me anyway.

what are you worried about?

Looks to be a decent time to reload a fresh USD/CAD long right now, for those who are looking that direction.

Long @ 1.0018, SL 0.9978 TP = none for now.

Canadian data tomorrow. M/M GDP
Hopefully it's below expectations so this sucker rallies up to 1.02xx... for starters.

I am keeping an eye on that. I woundn't take any trade until the data release tomorrow

Add: cadjpy also retested the brokeken rising wedge and i am expecting it to head south

yeah, I saw that on the calender, but it just looks so juicy down there considering the other fundamentals in play.

I'll keep an eye on it this evening and might adjust my stops or even close it if it's green. I'm also considering a larger (0.5%) buy order around 1.005 before I hit the hay depending on PA.

Adding a small short on NZDUSD on the daily divergence/supply area. Short 80.85

If it pops higher I'm giving it the hammer at 82 with stops above 82.50, as that would be very overbought and running into the downtrend

The only thing making me question this is that we just popped back into the lifetime bull trend which is acting as great support and just had a fakeout to the downside. We also just broke above the recent high of 80.73, so we already tested this shelf. Perhaps now we will break above it.

But I still think its a bit over bought. It would be smarter to wait for some reversal confirmation I suppose.

NZD/USD daily

Dear Jim,
The spin and MOPE cannot change the following reality:
http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/...002_thumb3.gif
After "Rise of China" the big banks have created 700 trillion US dollar unregulated financial betting’s (OTC (Over The Counter) derivatives). The main part is interest bettings (in order to reduce the interest rates so governments and banks do not go broke), and they have put long interest rates in US, Germany and Japan to unrealistic and uneconomical levels. The OTC derivatives are under water and cannot be settled without the big banks all over the world are going broke.
Capital flight from countries in distress is funding creditor states at zero rates. “This can’t go on for long".
http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/...003_thumb6.jpg
Debt, Debt, Debt!
http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/...004_thumb4.jpg
http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/..._image0053.jpg


From WWW.JSMINESET.COM

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/euro-z...28306.html?l=1

Snippet:

By Eva Kuehnen

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - European Central Bank President Mario Draghi must back up his pledge to do what it takes to protect the euro when the bank's policymakers meet on Thursday or else face deep disappointment from investors hungry for - and expecting - immediate action.

In his boldest comments to date, Draghi said last week that, within its mandate, the ECB was ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro, fuelling expectation the bank could revive its bond purchase program as it did a year ago when it started buying the government debt of Spain and Italy.

The talk has already lowered Italian and Spanish bond yields, and the extent to which markets are now primed for a move on Thursday was clearly spelt out in a Reuters poll.

Nineteen out of 24 money market traders said they expect the ECB to restart its mothballed bond-buying program with purchases of Spanish and Italian debt, with 10 out of 19 expecting it announce this on Thursday.

But such a step is far from certain, and the ECB may hold off to intervene in tandem with the euro zone's EFSF rescue fund.

Instead, the ECB could explore new policy tools such as outright asset purchases, or quantitative easing, which Britain, the United States and Japan are using to stimulate growth. There have also been recent suggestions that it could empower national central banks to broaden their asset buying abilities.

The ECB is under intense pressure from within and outside the euro zone to intervene and bring those governments' soaring borrowing costs under control as the debt crisis deepens and increasingly poses a risk to the global economy.

Reflecting the increased tension, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner flew on Monday to Germany, the euro zone's biggest economy and key to any euro rescue plan, and met Germany's finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble.

After their meeting, on a remote North Sea island where Schaeuble interrupted a holiday, they issued a statement saying they were optimistic about reform efforts in the euro zone. Geithner later met Draghi in Frankfurt, but he left that meeting without comment, and no statement was issued.

The ECB chief will also meet Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, a strong opponent of the ECB's government bond purchase program, ahead of Thursday's ECB meeting, a central bank source said.

Snippet:

BIG BAZOOKA

Draghi's remarks last Thursday left many in the market wondering whether his message had been intended and if so how far the ECB would be prepared to go.

"If you had just landed from planet Mars, and this was the first time that you had heard the ECB speak on this issue, you might think that it was about to fire a big bazooka at sovereign bond markets," said David Mackie, economist at J.P. Morgan.

"But, having listened carefully to the central bank over the last two and a half years, we don't think that is about to happen," he added.

Draghi's candid remarks took some of his fellow Governing Council members by surprise, having not agreed with them before hand on the message he would send. This has prompted concerns Draghi may have raised false hopes in the market.

"Nothing new has been discussed (on action ECB could take), but Draghi is not a man to make comments lightly and at the end of the day he is the one calling the shots," said a euro zone central bank source. "There was always going to be a time when Draghi decided he had to act."

Another source said Draghi was not flagging an imminent move, and any action would likely come only in September or October, in conjunction with euro zone governments, and with a request from Spain for a bailout program, which Madrid was still trying to avoid.

(Additional reporting by Marc Jones and Rahul Karunakar; Editing by Jeremy Gaunt)

CurrencyMan: Stay Tuned The FED meets tomorrow and Data will be released in the USA with ADP on Wednesday and Rate Statement FOMC at 2:15 PM EST on Wednesday.

Technically is anyone expecting another leg down today? Or just rangebound between 1.2320 and 1.2230 until Wednesday and Thursday?

I can see maybe 1.2190/1.22.

Maybe we will go to 1.2320 and put in a head and shoulders.

2287 is such a sticky number, almost always good for a scalp, I am short from here (small position will wait for london to add big)

Edit: Chickening out on this short if 4hr close is above 87, I smell something in the air..

Today’s orderboard

Written by Pete Jackson
July 31, 2012 at 05:38 GMT

EUR/USD: Bids 1.2250/60, sell stops through 1.2225 ahead of Fibonacci supp around 1.2215 (50% retracement of July 24 low/Jul 27 high). Offers from 1.2300 up to 1.2330. Buy stops through 1.2340. Decent sell orders up at 1.2380/00 ahead of barrier at 1.2400.

GBP/USD: Bids 1.5700/10 and 1.5665/75 likely sell stops below. Offers 1.5760/70 ahead of tech res 100 day MA 1.5781 and more offers 1.5790/00, likely buy stops through 1.5800

EUR/GBP: Strong bids 0.7790/00. Offers 0.7830/35 and larger at 0.7865/70

USD/JPY: Large bids at 78.00/10 (rumoured semi official/Kampo). Sell stops through 77.90 and 77.75. Offers start from 78.20/30 from Japan exporters, ahead of tech res Ichimoku Tenkan line around 78.55 up to 79.00. Buy stops through 78.70 and 79.00 ahead of tech res 79.10/25 (79.13/79.22- 200/55 day MA’s)

EUR/JPY: Bids 95. 50/60. Offers 96.30/40 and 96.55/65 likely buy stops above

AUD/JPY: Bids/tech supp 81.70/80 (81.76 100 day MA) sell stops through 81.50, tech support 81.30/35 (81.34 200 day MA), more sell stops through 81.00. Offers 82.30/50 and tech res 82.80/90 (82.86 May 3 high)

EUR/CHF: Bids 1.2000/10(SNB), Offers 1.2025/30 buy stops through 1.2035 and through 1.2050

AUD/USD: Bids 1.0480/90 some sell stops below ahead of more bids 1.0445/55 (exporters), and tech support 1.0385/90, sell stops below through 1.0380. Offers 1.0530/40 (talk of possible RBA commercial selling interest) ahead of tech resistance 1.0555/60 (1.0556 Mar 27 high) Also talk of 1.0550 barrier option interest.

EUR/AUD: Tech supp 1.1650/60. Initial res 1.1680/00 and stronger up at 1.1750/60

NZD/USD: Offers 0.8130/50, bids 0.8075/85 some weak sell stops below ahead of tech support 0.8050/55 and 0.8000/10

Today's Euro FX option expiries @ 14:00 GMT

1.2150
1.2200
1.2235
1.2380
1.2400