Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Daily candle broke the red 200 but failed to close above it.
The price failed at the aqua colored 100 sma/pink 300 sma on first attempt @ 1.5764. The daily high 1.5766.

We may see a weekly range between the yellow 38 fib and the yellow 50 fib this week, depending on Market Sentiment, which reversed to bullish from quite bearish. This relief rally could last a few more days, targeting the upside sma's.

The 4 hour chart show a higher low, as denoted by the white trend line. This is a bullish confirmation short term. Price broke above the previous swing high @ 1.5736, which is another confirmation, but failed to hold on profit taking and option defense on Friday.

Buy dips if Market Sentiment remains Risk On (Hopium) heading to Thursday ECB/BOE meetings.

Price Action

Welcome back James, hope all is well on your side.
Nice analysis as always.

regards

Thanx, bro.
Enjoying my retirement here.

Friday's high wasn't able to break the previous high of 6/20 which is the May downtrend's 50% fib. We did close above 1.5720 which has held since late May. A close above 1.5785 would break out of this consolidation range. The higher low on 7/25 does provide some support to the idea that this pair is going to move higher. Also on the 4H charts, Friday's candles did close higher than the candle closes of 7/19. So I'm more bullish.

Key support levels: 1.5720, 1.5694, 1.5650-40
Key resistance levels: 1.5762, 1.5785, 1.5810-20

But as always, trade what you see.

Odd, my platform price has yet to retrace and touch my 50 fib of 5781.

my bias :
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1343095347

but :
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1343340765
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1343520465

let see and wait ...

morning.

not even bothered to look at the charts for now but I still hold my shorts on both EU and GU.

GU....well a 1.5400 level would give me satisfaction but for now 1.5630 would be good enough.

on EU I still wait my 1.15-18

why I still think EU will tank and maybe gap at market open? well fundies and techs as well.
EZ has no funds to cover the full spanish bailout.a few words cannot cover 385 bln of debt....let's not forget the whole firewall is ....500 bln.....and we have Greece that needs another bailout in sept and we have Italy as well that needs one.

I should try to find the post where I said that if Spain only needs 50 bln but it needs to pass the summer so the internal audit will see the whole picture.

I said back then that if this happens then Spain will need at least double when september comes as they will only spend and spend on summer holidays and oh well...I missed the expectations by 285 bln more

that's 6 times as much as they first declared.....

let's go back in time and picture Greece and the deficit first declared.....let's zoom in 2 months later with a double deficit ....zoom in more and see the panic that followed.

my opinion? nobody will buy the debt.no bonds will be purchased by any private investors so ECB is the only one in the trench.

If I'd be a private investor then I'd say screw you ECB after the last trick with Greece cut where all private investors ended up with -75% of the investement but ECB didn't lose anything.

so....techs point to 1.2220.if that one gives up we head lower.

GU should follow.

maybe I'll look at the charts later today or I'll just go for a swim.

in order for GU to head higher we need a close above 1.5738 which did not happen and one above 1.5778

so we might still be in range with 1.5278 in sight.

anyway we trade what we see not what we hear

keep a tight SL,a tsunami is comming this week

========
market needs action not talk
who is NATO member ? No Action Talk Only

Well spotted.
Agreed.

Seb

EW Update.

This is why I refuse to close my position.
But I guess I will need to wait until London2012 is over.

Take care,
Seb

Can the fed really afford to let Europe collapse? While on the campaign trail they say they won't commit funds to help,
but...?

what comments are fake?

Draghi's. He spoke on Friday and the market spiked up and then reversed.

comments were not fake news.he really said that.I posted a link with his speech.

it's just that he cannot say something like he owns the ECB.anyway,the rally was triggered by comments but not retailers did it but investment funds and banks.I've seen such managers stupid enough to buy rumours.

market deflated more by the techs than fundies in my oppinion.

my vision is clear.there will be no EZ soon.Germans just said they want out of Euro...you cannot trick the hoards

oh boy,it's gonna be a looooong hot summer..

12th of sept is the doom's day not 12 of dec 2012 but this 12 th of sept.

better close all you have by then as the dustdevil that will be created then will wipe many many positions....no matter what side of the market they are

GU now is 5738
EU is 2300

I think we have a down gap ...

my broker closed 1.2300 , gbp 1,5723 i think we goin to open flat

Friday at the last 15 minutes GBP spiked to 1.5758 so it might open a bit higher than 5723, but EU might open right on 2300