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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #319,881
  • Jul 26, 2012 12:21pm Jul 26, 2012 12:21pm
We got a scrawny weak bull here folks. Easy pickins for the mighty BEAR !!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Bull skinny.jpg Size: 506 KB
  • #319,882
  • Jul 26, 2012 12:38pm Jul 26, 2012 12:38pm
So, take a sell now
Things is not muscles or colors, or..


Sorry for those who are in selling short, just kidding
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #319,883
  • Jul 26, 2012 12:58pm Jul 26, 2012 12:58pm
market goes down... and people think that goes down forever.
market goes up... and people think market is not going up.

must be something wrong

i admit that everything can happen, so maybe tomorrow we see a complete reverse and price again 5500 or lower so must have always an open mind... and sincerely i thank you everybody for posting different ideas, so everybody can see both sides of the same view.

actually price bouced 250pips from a crucial point seen in major weekly/monthly charts, completely destroying short term downtrend coming from 5730 which is a good part of the main downtrend coming from 1.63.

i don't mean that main downtrend is ended. but if until yesterday its power was 10, today it's 5.
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #319,884
  • Jul 26, 2012 1:37pm Jul 26, 2012 1:37pm
Quoting _BBKing_
market goes down... and people think that goes down forever.
market goes up... and people think market is not going up.

must be something wrong

i admit that everything can happen, so maybe tomorrow we see a complete reverse and price again 5500 or lower so must have always an open mind... and sincerely i thank you everybody for posting different ideas, so everybody can see both sides of the same view.

actually price bouced 250pips from a crucial point seen in major weekly/monthly charts, completely destroying short...
bottom of range is where we where yesterday this mofo is range bound and direction still is not certain..it can easily go to 1.65 from here and still be a bear long term...thou personally i believe it can break higher
  • #319,885
  • Jul 26, 2012 1:38pm Jul 26, 2012 1:38pm
Quoting Zircon
So, take a sell now
Things is not muscles or colors, or..


Sorry for those who are in selling short, just kidding

Those who disregard seasonals and cycles do so at their own peril. The end of july is not here yet. The market may move higher still giving the bears a BIG GIFT.
  • #319,886
  • Jul 26, 2012 2:00pm Jul 26, 2012 2:00pm
Quoting chiknthief
Those who disregard seasonals and cycles do so at their own peril. The end of july is not here yet. The market may move higher still giving the bears a BIG GIFT.
Respect ,
seasons and cycles
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #319,887
  • Jul 26, 2012 2:51pm Jul 26, 2012 2:51pm
Quoting chiknthief
Those who disregard seasonals and cycles do so at their own peril. The end of july is not here yet. The market may move higher still giving the bears a BIG GIFT.
i spent a lot of time with timing cycles.
really a lot.
then i left for multiple reasons.
one above the others:
time does not exist.
time is only something that we need to know for our jobs, productions, etc...

once you accept this... maybe you will come to the next point
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #319,888
  • Jul 26, 2012 2:56pm Jul 26, 2012 2:56pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
bottom of range is where we where yesterday this mofo is range bound and direction still is not certain..it can easily go to 1.65 from here and still be a bear long term...thou personally i believe it can break higher
so true!
but also giving a fast eye through all USD/xxx charts and all xxx/USD charts..... uhm... something is cooking. can't deny this!
Attached Image
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #319,889
  • Jul 26, 2012 3:39pm Jul 26, 2012 3:39pm
Quoting _BBKing_
i spent a lot of time with timing cycles.
really a lot.
then i left for multiple reasons.
one above the others:
time does not exist.
time is only something that we need to know for our jobs, productions, etc...

once you accept this... maybe you will come to the next point

Everyone has a reason - everyone has a thought - but all of those with reasons or thoughts never post their live trades as I do - I agree with you BBKing - time is only something that we need to know etc.....

I started trading late 2008 earlier 2009 - lost more money then I want to remember.....I was new I was green.....don't markets just go up with small down periods......well I got blistered in the sun.....filled the coffers of those with experience - if you stick with it long enough you too can have experience but it depends on what you do with that experience....do you change? do you evolve? do you adapt? There is no holy grail in this business but there is reason and you will have to find your reason also - above all be flexible be adaptable have understanding.....have compassion and be humble - I have had no mentors, read very few books, did lots of online reading and listened to one guy about keeping it simple......now 3 years plus down the road my charts are simple my setups are few my profits good - but remember we will always always have losing trades....it is how you handle those losing trades and how they balance out against your winning trades.

I know that lots of people in here lost a lot of money today either on their books or for real because they stopped themselves out - that is all ok....tomorrow is another day. Learn from today so tomorrow can be a better day - it takes courage....this business is tough. It is the toughest thing I have ever tried to conquer - one step at a time.

Have a good night everyone -

Faller.
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #319,890
  • Jul 26, 2012 3:59pm Jul 26, 2012 3:59pm
Quoting Faller
Everyone has a reason - everyone has a thought - but all of those with reasons or thoughts never post their live trades as I do - I agree with you BBKing - time is only something that we need to know etc.....

I started trading late 2008 earlier 2009 - lost more money then I want to remember.....I was new I was green.....don't markets just go up with small down periods......well I got blistered in the sun.....filled the coffers of those with experience - if you stick with it long enough you too can have experience but it depends on what you do with...
nice info and good to see some of yur background..u have come a long way and the road is looking clear for u..so long as u know yourself and can remain humble i have no doubt yur profits will increase
  • #319,891
  • Jul 26, 2012 3:59pm Jul 26, 2012 3:59pm
Quoting ez0770
Hi redbeben,

do you really see a 90 point drop by the end of the day? How?
well maybe not today.market is licking it's wounds.

1.5490 last TP on my trade.
  • #319,892
  • Jul 26, 2012 4:01pm Jul 26, 2012 4:01pm
Quoting _BBKing_
5595 by end of the day?
what are you smoking???? seems good. give me some please

pufff and it's gone

here it's legal to grow 2 plants per person ..not that I smoke...at all no tabacco nor joints but still passive smoke every time I visit friends...all cracks
  • #319,893
  • Jul 26, 2012 4:07pm Jul 26, 2012 4:07pm
wow price drops 15 pips and the ask line goes NOWHERE...
Money never sleeps...
  • #319,894
  • Jul 26, 2012 4:13pm Jul 26, 2012 4:13pm
does it tell us there is little double top in m5 and make price ,ts/ks/chikou stay below kumo ? multilple kumo twist in m5. OR make price in m1 stay below ma 200 ? or just a trap ? or .. ? or ... ?

hmmm.........tic toc

Quoting inpatient
wow price drops 15 pips and the ask line goes NOWHERE...
not euphoria follower
  • #319,895
  • Jul 26, 2012 4:29pm Jul 26, 2012 4:29pm
Trade daily/weekly charts - been long for 2 weeks - what a ride. Nice to see this move - long for now at least.
Irregular
  • #319,896
  • Jul 26, 2012 5:16pm Jul 26, 2012 5:16pm
there is always bull and bear at the same time. time to choose ....
Quoting iqyu5an
some of draghi
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1343298394
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1343297839
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pvj627.gif Size: 14 KB
not euphoria follower
  • #319,897
  • Jul 27, 2012 2:24am Jul 27, 2012 2:24am
morning

still holding my view of short as follows 1.5590-95 as first TP 1.5530-35 TP2 and last TP 1.5474

buy orders are as follows-1.5640-45,1.5590-00,1.5540-50,1.5510-as you see they are not too far from my calculations so I'm on the right side with the TP's

sell orders are 1.5700,1.5720-30,1.5740-50,1.5780 and 1.5800.


at least on EU I have a 100 pips drop confirmed 2185 first TP,tp2 2164 and TP3 2143

the calculations above are the conservative ones as on EU last TP is 1.2078-74 and on GU 1.5420


off course all are subject to news and rumours so always use a SL if you want to have a go at them.
  • #319,898
  • Jul 27, 2012 2:28am Jul 27, 2012 2:28am
I don't like fundies but we have to face it

one man alone cannot save the world.yesterday move? why so fast up?why no bears ?
well in spain at least bears were banned from trading so once the enemy is put aside there is a lot of boost to the sky.

that was step one

step to,take one smart ass to say he will do whatever to save the EZ,whatever meaning buying Italian and Spanish bonds..meaning more dead weight to the germans and the fins and the whoever still stands in EZ.

Merkel and the vikings will eat Draghi soup for dinner.....off course this is just in my head but I feel this is what will happen.there's no saviour for EZ except for a big erase and going back to each country currency
  • #319,899
  • Jul 27, 2012 2:39am Jul 27, 2012 2:39am
The Theory on Italy and Germany's Endgame for the Euro

Feeling more relaxed about the euro crisis since last month's summit? Think again. The risk of a euro-zone breakup may actually be rising rather than falling, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategists David Woo and Athanasios Vamvakidis. Using game theory to consider how the situation might evolve, they believe the crisis will boil down to a game of bluff between Italy and Germany in which neither country has an incentive to back down.

That doesn't mean this would be the best outcome for either side; in game theory, the most likely outcome isn't always what economists call "Pareto optimal," one that will bring maximum benefit to all players. Instead, the "Nash equilibrium" for the euro zone—the situation in which no player has an incentive to change strategy because to do so unilaterally would leave them worse off—is that Italy refuses to undertake the overhauls needed to enable its economy to grow and Germany refuses to provide the bailouts to persuade it to stay.

To reach this conclusion, Messrs. Woo and Vamvakidis undertook a simple cost-benefit analysis for each of the euro zone's 17 members. This looked at which countries were best-placed for an orderly exit in terms of the size of their fiscal and current-account positions. They also looked at the likely impact of an exit on growth, borrowing costs and national balance sheets.

The results make interesting reading: Italy and Ireland emerge as the countries with the greatest incentive to exit. In Italy's case, this is because it already runs a budget surplus before interest payments and has only a small current-account deficit. At the same time, its companies have the most to gain from devaluation. Surprisingly, the country with least incentive to exit is Germany since the cost-benefit analysis suggests a soaring currency would lead to lower growth, higher borrowing costs and big losses on overseas balances.

If this is right, then the euro crisis boils down to a simple calculation: Is Germany willing to pay to keep Italy in the euro zone? Game theory says "no," say Messrs. Woo and Vamvakidis. The problem is that even if Germany did pay, Italy would still have a strong incentive to exit eventually rather than undertake overhauls, leaving Germany worse off. And if Italy knows Germany will never pay to keep Italy in the euro, it is in Italy's interest to exit. This is a higher stakes version of the Greek impasse over the last two years, except that Italy has more reasons to leave and the euro zone faces a bigger bill to persuade Italy to stay.

Does that make a euro breakup inevitable? Not necessarily. In the real world, the game is complicated by history and politics. This analysis may not fully capture the true costs of a breakup for all countries. For the moment, there is little political pressure in Italy to exit the euro. Besides, one thing could decisively alter the equation, say Messrs. Woo and Vamvakidis: A much weaker euro would significantly reduce the incentive of any country to exit. One way or another, policy makers are likely to bring that about.
  • #319,900
  • Jul 27, 2012 2:41am Jul 27, 2012 2:41am
One thing is for sure, expectations are high for next week's ECB meeting after such a bold statement, hard so see a major selloff before then..unless of course Germany comes out with some other statement contradicting Draghi...after that only expectations of more QE by the Fed might buy the risk trade more time (keep an eye on today's US GDP)

Personally, i don't think central banks will manage to fix things beyond a short term boost given what they have done up until now, so over the long run short risk is my preferred trade

Quoting redbeben
I don't like fundies but we have to face it

one man alone cannot save the world.yesterday move? why so fast up?why no bears ?
well in spain at least bears were banned from trading so once the enemy is put aside there is a lot of boost to the sky.

that was step one

step to,take one smart ass to say he will do whatever to save the EZ,whatever meaning buying Italian and Spanish bonds..meaning more dead weight to the germans and the fins and the whoever still stands in EZ.

Merkel and the vikings will eat Draghi soup for dinner.....off course this...
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