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EUR/CHF

  • #8,741
  • Jul 26, 2012 5:05am Jul 26, 2012 5:05am
Quoting Napoleon180
Right, makes no real sense to trade for 1-2 pips, the broker probably just earns more than you get from the trade.
Just hold positions, cash in the rolls and wait for breakout, heading 1.22-25.
Is 1.22-25 a forecast?

Nobody dares to forecast where this pair will head towards years end although SNB expects it to weaken gradually. But I don't think this will happen at least till year-end 2012. EU is in such a mess.! US is slowing down, China & East Asia also slowing down; I think the world economy is slowing & needs for safe havens are rising. Unfortunately CH is still a very safe haven with the excellent credit ratings.

So expect the inflows & 1.20 peg to stay for a long long time to come (say 2 more yrs?).
  • #8,742
  • Jul 26, 2012 5:17am Jul 26, 2012 5:17am
Quoting alaneth
Is 1.22-25 a forecast?

Nobody dares to forecast where this pair will head towards years end although SNB expects it to weaken gradually. But I don't think this will happen at least till year-end 2012. EU is in such a mess.! US is slowing down, China & East Asia also slowing down; I think the world economy is slowing & needs for safe havens are rising. Unfortunately CH is still a very safe haven with the excellent credit ratings.

So expect the inflows & 1.20 peg to stay for a long long time to come (say 2 more yrs?).
I cant even see it getting to 1.22 by year end
  • #8,743
  • Jul 26, 2012 5:52am Jul 26, 2012 5:52am
Quoting brinks
So you think that they will be out of -1% deflation by october of this year
yep:

http://snbchf.com/2012/07/the-end-of...ese-deflation/
  • #8,744
  • Jul 26, 2012 6:00am Jul 26, 2012 6:00am
EUR/USD jumps up
EUR/CHF nothing

any questions?
  • #8,745
  • Jul 26, 2012 6:12am Jul 26, 2012 6:12am
Quoting didi_doedel
yep:

http://snbchf.com/2012/07/the-end-of...ese-deflation/
George Doran forecasting Ltd. LOL
If you trade his suggestions you can pay 1,5 swap on a day since april/may. In april/may he said it's a matter of weeks that the peg breaks, and he shorted ECHF according to his disclaimer. Since then he removed his disclaimer.
Reading him is similar like reading the telegraph on a daily base. "Great" fun.
  • #8,746
  • Jul 26, 2012 6:27am Jul 26, 2012 6:27am
Quoting pipxster
George Doran forecasting Ltd. LOL
If you trade his suggestions you can pay 1,5 swap on a day since april/may. In april/may he said it's a matter of weeks that the peg breaks, and he shorted ECHF according to his disclaimer. Since then he removed his disclaimer.
Reading him is similar like reading the telegraph on a daily base. "Great" fun.
If you look at the monthly inflation here, is this also nonsense ?
http://www.inflation.eu/inflation-ra...land-2012.aspx

look at July/June 2011 also!

Once that is out, the inflation jumps to zero. Of course, zero inflation is far from a level that would require SNB interventions. But don't forget the recent drop CHF/USD for your future plannings.
  • #8,747
  • Jul 26, 2012 7:09am Jul 26, 2012 7:09am
Quoting didi_doedel
If you look at the monthly inflation here, is this also nonsense ?
http://www.inflation.eu/inflation-ra...land-2012.aspx

look at July/June 2011 also!

Once that is out, the inflation jumps to zero. Of course, zero inflation is far from a level that would require SNB interventions. But don't forget the recent drop CHF/USD for your future plannings.
Ok, but see inflation data in EU and US too, in this environment to creating inflation would be a miracle without moving the exchange rate (considering the macro aggregate demand slump in general). GD even for the summer was forecasting 0 yoy cpi for CH, apart from the basic staistical rules you have to consider the macroeconomic environment too.

Of course Im not considering USDCHF long at all, it was just an exmple of CHF holding cost (loss), now you're right but when USDCHF slumps then SNB offloads that is good for EURCHF longs in mid-long term.
  • #8,748
  • Jul 26, 2012 8:00am Jul 26, 2012 8:00am
Is draghi gonna come up with a game changer?
  • #8,749
  • Jul 26, 2012 8:43am Jul 26, 2012 8:43am
Anyone does see this?

Attached Image


+ What Draghi said?
  • #8,750
  • Jul 26, 2012 8:49am Jul 26, 2012 8:49am
Quoting me-me
Anyone does see this?
Oh yes something should happen when we cross the line
  • #8,751
  • Jul 26, 2012 8:50am Jul 26, 2012 8:50am
have some buy possitions,
spike + TP 1.204
  • #8,752
  • Jul 26, 2012 8:51am Jul 26, 2012 8:51am
also, the volumes seem to be generally higher - I bet more and more guys have buy positions opened
  • #8,753
  • Edited 9:40am Jul 26, 2012 8:55am | Edited 9:40am
Quoting me-me
Anyone does see this?

Attachment ...
I dont think that trendline means a great deal on this pair.
It will probably just carry on through in its 4 pip range with no breakout.

This pair is a complete waste of time cant even get a 10pip spike to get out
  • #8,754
  • Jul 26, 2012 11:03am Jul 26, 2012 11:03am
Chart above looks more like an EKG!
You can lose your shirt if your buttons are loose.
  • #8,755
  • Jul 26, 2012 11:51am Jul 26, 2012 11:51am
Quoting brinks
I dont think that trendline means a great deal on this pair.
It will probably just carry on through in its 4 pip range with no breakout.

This pair is a complete waste of time cant even get a 10pip spike to get out
No surprise here.

The market price EUR/CHF without SNB would be lower than parity. Some weeks ago UBS said 0,93 and since then EUR/USD plunged. So what can +1,2% EUR/USD do?

And if you think that 1,20 is so important for tourism, you might be surprised when looking if reality fits to what you think e.g.
http://www.static-ubs.com/global/en/...hartset_EN.pdf

Let's see on Monday if DRAG the Euro HIgher was able to lower the pressure on SNB.
  • #8,756
  • Jul 26, 2012 11:59am Jul 26, 2012 11:59am
[quote=didi_doedel;5879725]No surprise here.

The market price EUR/CHF without SNB would be lower than parity. Some weeks ago UBS said 0,93 and since then EUR/USD plunged. So what can +1,2% EUR/USD do?

And if you think that 1,20 is so important for tourism, you might be surprised when looking if reality fits to what you think e.g.
http://www.static-ubs.com/global/en/...hartset_EN.pdf

It still says PPP should be nearer to 1.33 for eur/chf
As you say no surprise that it didn't go up today
  • #8,757
  • Jul 26, 2012 1:02pm Jul 26, 2012 1:02pm
Quoting brinks
I dont think that trendline means a great deal on this pair.
It will probably just carry on through in its 4 pip range with no breakout.

This pair is a complete waste of time cant even get a 10pip spike to get out
Told you all before forget it, its a waste of time, use your money on something more promising
  • #8,758
  • Edited 3:23am Jul 27, 2012 2:06am | Edited 3:23am
KOF better than expected

downward pressure returning to this pair
  • #8,759
  • Jul 27, 2012 4:36am Jul 27, 2012 4:36am
Someone in here who s got a "tradeable" 1m EURCHF-swap? Thanks
  • #8,760
  • Jul 27, 2012 4:38am Jul 27, 2012 4:38am
Quoting Swissie
Someone in here who s got a "tradeable" 1m EURCHF-swap? Thanks
foarward deal? exp date?
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