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EUR/CHF

  • #8,681
  • Jul 23, 2012 3:29am Jul 23, 2012 3:29am
My question is when does it get so bad that they do bring in negative rates or capital controls?

or are they just bluffing to buy some time until the euro sorts its problems out?
  • #8,682
  • Jul 23, 2012 3:41am Jul 23, 2012 3:41am
Negative rate is not a bluff, it has already started in some countries and there are others who are to decide, Japan and Switzerland will come to decide soon.
  • #8,683
  • Jul 23, 2012 3:42am Jul 23, 2012 3:42am
Quoting FXMindset
Trying Short next week
Short @ 1.2006 Stop @ 1.2016 ( SL 10 Pips ) Risk 1% TP : Open Trailing : active
break it down to the hell
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #8,684
  • Jul 23, 2012 3:44am Jul 23, 2012 3:44am
Quoting brinks
My question is when does it get so bad that they do bring in negative rates or capital controls?

or are they just bluffing to buy some time until the euro sorts its problems out?
But when is it bad enough? it is fundamental, a sever exit talk in Euro zone, maybe when EURUSD less than 1.18.
  • #8,685
  • Edited 3:51am Jul 23, 2012 3:47am | Edited 3:51am
Quoting holmes
No, if the price penetrates the peg, the SNB has let it happen and the SNB will be the first to unload EURO, plus sl of long ones adding sell stops there we will see a free fall faster than what we have ever seen.
You serious? That will be suicidal to Swiss.! It is very unlikely to happen...

I'm not a risk taker, but do you guys think we should also consider something in this eventuality (i.e. should we Sell Stop below 1.2000?)
But if HF players got it to drop on Mon Asian morning to say 1.1950, then sell stops will trigger, but SNB will surely interfere right? So if we sell, we will definately lose big. But we can use trailing stop.

OK FXMindset, I'll follow you, but I'll :
Short @ 1.1990 Stop @ 1.2010 ( SL 15 Pips ) Risk ???. TP : Open, Trailing : active @ 10pips
  • #8,686
  • Jul 23, 2012 3:50am Jul 23, 2012 3:50am
Quoting alaneth
You serious? That will be suicidal to Swiss.! It is very unlikely to happen...

I'm not a risk taker, but do you guys think we should also consider something in this eventuality (i.e. should we Sell Stop below 1.2000?)
But if HF players got it to drop on Mon Asian morning to say 1.1950, then sell stops will trigger, but SNB will surely interfere right? So if we sell, we will definately lose big.
You said if and only if, I believe it won't happen either.
  • #8,687
  • Jul 23, 2012 3:53am Jul 23, 2012 3:53am
Quoting alaneth
You serious? That will be suicidal to Swiss.! It is very unlikely to happen...

I'm not a risk taker, but do you guys think we should also consider something in this eventuality (i.e. should we Sell Stop below 1.2000?)
But if HF players got it to drop on Mon Asian morning to say 1.1950, then sell stops will trigger, but SNB will surely interfere right? So if we sell, we will definately lose big. But we can use trailing stop.

OK FXMindset, I'll follow you, but I'll :
Short @ 1.1990 Stop @ 1.2010 ( SL 15 Pips ) Risk ???. TP : Open,...
dont follow me buddy,am trade based on the chart outlook and am only risk 1% only
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #8,688
  • Jul 23, 2012 4:19am Jul 23, 2012 4:19am
Quoting alaneth
I'm not a risk taker, but do you guys think we should also consider something in this eventuality (i.e. should we Sell Stop below 1.2000?)
But if HF players got it to drop on Mon Asian morning to say 1.1950, then sell stops will trigger, but SNB will surely interfere right? So if we sell, we will definately lose big. But we can use trailing stop.
If you seriously believe the peg will break you can consider buying PUT option say @ 1.1950. It will however cost you ~ 2k CHF per month per 1m EUR contract last time I checked.
  • #8,689
  • Jul 23, 2012 5:07am Jul 23, 2012 5:07am
its gonna be ugly
  • #8,690
  • Jul 23, 2012 6:18am Jul 23, 2012 6:18am
Came by to say HI.
  • #8,691
  • Jul 23, 2012 6:20am Jul 23, 2012 6:20am
Quoting alexcee
Came by to say HI.
Hi,
Are you getting worried or is the party still on?
  • #8,692
  • Jul 23, 2012 6:39am Jul 23, 2012 6:39am
Quoting brinks
Hi,
Are you getting worried or is the party still on?
I'm still within my comfort zone. But I don't like the EURUSD rate. And also the Spanish yield is not a good news.
  • #8,693
  • Jul 23, 2012 6:42am Jul 23, 2012 6:42am
Quoting alexcee
I'm still within my comfort zone. But I don't like the EURUSD rate. And also the Spanish yield is not a good news.
Yes the rate is not really troubling the 1.20 level yet so i see no need to worry
  • #8,694
  • Jul 23, 2012 7:12am Jul 23, 2012 7:12am
Quoting brinks
Yes the rate is not really troubling the 1.20 level yet so i see no need to worry
AUDCHF, USDCHF and GBPCHF have rocketted aveargely 800-900 pips since march.
  • #8,695
  • Jul 23, 2012 7:32am Jul 23, 2012 7:32am
according to this info:
http://www.bernerzeitung.ch/wirtscha...story/29062471
SNB intervention is up again, and this week chances are that May/June levels will be exceeded because of Grexit discussions and issues for Spanish regions.

Not astonishingly trust in SNB's peg falls:
http://www.nzz.ch/aktuell/wirtschaft...ank-1.17386572

Does anyone know why they are not pegging against a basket of currencies? E.g. 50% EUR, 30% USD, 10% GBP and 10%YEN ?

This would be easy to explain and reduces the risk of a sudden attack by hedge funds in case Greece goes completely bankrupt.
  • #8,696
  • Jul 23, 2012 8:20am Jul 23, 2012 8:20am
sorry,nem érteni német....
  • #8,697
  • Jul 23, 2012 8:29am Jul 23, 2012 8:29am
I don't understand Hungarian, but Google translate does:
nem érteni német => do not understand German

So you can either use Google translate, find a German speaking person (which is not a bad idea if you want to follow CHF/EUR), or try to find the same info in EN.
  • #8,698
  • Jul 23, 2012 9:11am Jul 23, 2012 9:11am
I will feel a bit uncomfortable holding EUR/CHF longs if Spain fails.....anyone feeling the same way?
  • #8,699
  • Jul 23, 2012 9:14am Jul 23, 2012 9:14am
Quoting didi_doedel
according to this info:
http://www.bernerzeitung.ch/wirtscha...story/29062471
SNB intervention is up again, and this week chances are that May/June levels will be exceeded because of Grexit discussions and issues for Spanish regions.

Not astonishingly trust in SNB's peg falls:
http://www.nzz.ch/aktuell/wirtschaft...ank-1.17386572

Does anyone know why they are not pegging against...
because swiss trades mostly with europe, i think 70~80% if i remember
  • #8,700
  • Jul 23, 2012 9:16am Jul 23, 2012 9:16am
Quoting tim10167
I will feel a bit uncomfortable holding EUR/CHF longs if Spain fails.....anyone feeling the same way?
Thare are two ways to look at it. If Spain goes down so does the Euro and together with the Euro goes the pegged Chf, so maybe it is time to get out of the falling Chf and look for yeld in other currency... that outflow would slowly take the EC up again.
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