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EUR/CHF

  • #8,661
  • Edited 7:38am Jul 22, 2012 7:11am | Edited 7:38am
two big news:

**#IMF considers ending support to #Greece #Greece could go bankrupt in September; IMF won't participate in a further money support to Greece

Spain Will Remain Liable for Bank Aid: Germany


guys, get ready to short everything(risky assets) this week while US earning season is still on.
leave this boring pair alone for now, focus on building up short positions this week.....ill be back early september before the rate decision.
  • #8,662
  • Jul 22, 2012 7:23am Jul 22, 2012 7:23am
Why do you think the peg will not hold?/??????????
  • #8,663
  • Jul 22, 2012 7:27am Jul 22, 2012 7:27am
Just in one case I would agree that the peg will not hold: EURUSD testing the parity.
  • #8,664
  • Jul 22, 2012 7:39am Jul 22, 2012 7:39am
Quoting holmes
Why do you think the peg will not hold?/??????????

sorry, I meant short risky assets this week, not EUR/CHF
  • #8,665
  • Jul 22, 2012 8:28am Jul 22, 2012 8:28am
(Reuters) - The finance chiefs of Swiss companies are increasingly doubtful of the central bank's ability to defend its 1.20 per euro cap on the franc given increasing pessimism about the euro zone debt crisis, a survey showed on Sunday.

The survey of 118 chief financial officers conducted by consultancy Deloitte between May 29 and June 18 showed that 43 percent now expect the franc to strengthen beyond 1.20 in the next 12 months, compared to 11 percent the previous quarter.

Deloitte said 37 percent saw the franc between 1.10-1.20 per euro in the next 12 months and 6 percent saw it below 1.10. The other 57 percent who saw the cap holding all saw the currency trading between 1.20 and 1.30 per euro.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/0...86L08820120722
  • #8,666
  • Jul 22, 2012 1:34pm Jul 22, 2012 1:34pm
Euro fragile, Euro up 'til Fri.
  • #8,667
  • Jul 22, 2012 1:49pm Jul 22, 2012 1:49pm
Quoting gold2011
Euro fragile, Euro up 'til Fri.


EUR/USD trading lower
Written by Gerry Davies
July 22, 2012 at 18:46 GMT
Reuters quoting 1.2128/33.
Hardly suprising its been marked lower.
  • #8,668
  • Jul 22, 2012 1:53pm Jul 22, 2012 1:53pm
Quoting FXMindset
Trying Short next week
Short @ 1.2006 Stop @ 1.2016 ( SL 10 Pips ) Risk 1% TP : Open Trailing : active
Wow, respect on that!

I'm already sorry for your loss ;- )
  • #8,669
  • Jul 22, 2012 1:59pm Jul 22, 2012 1:59pm
Quoting Napoleon180
Wow, respect on that!

I'm already sorry for your loss ;- )
Depending on the spread it might not get filled
  • #8,670
  • Jul 22, 2012 2:00pm Jul 22, 2012 2:00pm
Quoting brinks
EUR/USD trading lower
Written by Gerry Davies
July 22, 2012 at 18:46 GMT
Reuters quoting 1.2128/33.
Hardly suprising its been marked lower.
Will rise 1.22 my opinion.
  • #8,671
  • Jul 22, 2012 2:02pm Jul 22, 2012 2:02pm
Quoting gold2011
Will rise 1.22 my opinion.
Just letting you know it was quoting lower.
  • #8,672
  • Jul 22, 2012 9:27pm Jul 22, 2012 9:27pm
Will eventually rise..... CHF will eventually weaken over time.

With a central bank so well known for interventions, I strongly see 1.20 peg being defended with Utmost Determination!

If SNB cannot stand the inflows, Cap Controls is next by SNB. They have so many other 'weapons' to fight off this CHF strengthening.

It will take a little time for EU nations to realise that Swiss is a safe place to put their money, but there is a price to it. It's not free.
  • #8,673
  • Jul 23, 2012 1:50am Jul 23, 2012 1:50am
I think now is the time for the SNB to become a bit more pro active
  • #8,674
  • Edited 2:15am Jul 23, 2012 1:57am | Edited 2:15am
EUR/CHF steady as euro zone worries soar. Pressure building on peg

Written by Gerry Davies
July 23, 2012 at 06:55 GMT

EUR/CHF sits at 1.2006.
As one reader has just said “SNB must be working very hard today.”
Talk has it that there has been very decent interest to buy 1.1700 EUR/CHF 3 month puts.
Someone obviously think the SNB may have to abandon the peg real soon.

I wonder if Alexcee is getting worried
  • #8,675
  • Jul 23, 2012 2:19am Jul 23, 2012 2:19am
10,4 bln of francs has been printed last week. Still less than before greek elections (16-18bln per week), but increase from last weeks 4-6 bln per week
  • #8,676
  • Jul 23, 2012 2:20am Jul 23, 2012 2:20am
Quoting pipxster
10,4 bln of francs has been printed last week. Still less than before greek elections (16-18bln per week), but increase from last weeks 4-6 bln per week
And will be more again this week spanish and italian bonds on the rise again
  • #8,677
  • Jul 23, 2012 2:55am Jul 23, 2012 2:55am
Although the SNB has held the peg,1.2 but Switzerland has lost EU market, GDP, and Trade balance don't show that because the export to US and Asia has risen, certainly we can conclude that industries which lean to Euro area are under lots of pressure, I see no chance of peg break since Europe is Switzerland interest and they can't lose it cheap. What is the price of holding the peg? rise in balance sheet, reserves? what is wrong with that if the SNB has enough credibility and far from bankruptcy? Far from rumors and addressing Jordan and his Vice, in a more sever condition Cap control will be there to tighten the flows, however about Euro area, there are disappointing data here and there from Greece, Italy, Spain and..., but this is the real meaning of a united currency, EU is united as what we saw in the summit and Northern EU won't let the unity break up, EURO is young and an opportunity for long-term investment. The SNB believes the crisis will be overcome in a year and it is right therefor the talk around breaking the peg seems nonsense, No HF moves against FED and I have no idea why the bets here are against the SNB.
  • #8,678
  • Jul 23, 2012 3:05am Jul 23, 2012 3:05am
Quoting holmes
.....Northern EU won't let the unity break up, EURO is young and an opportunity for long-term investment. The SNB believes the crisis will be overcome in a year and it is right therefor the talk around breaking the peg seems nonsense, No HF moves against FED and I have no idea why the bets here are against the SNB.
I believe this peg is there to stay for sometime to come. Say another year?

But if (say just if) the peg breaks (due to say HF managers testing the peg attacking together), what is your opinion on it's pattern - will it drop slightly below 1.2, say 1.1995, then suddenly plunge due to all the sell stops there? or will it gradually drop till some level before SNB intervenes?

If that happens, how do you think SNB will intervene, at what level?
  • #8,679
  • Jul 23, 2012 3:07am Jul 23, 2012 3:07am
Quoting alaneth
I believe this peg is there to stay for sometime to come. Say another year?

But if (say just if) the peg breaks (due to say HF managers testing the peg attacking together), what is your opinion on it's pattern - will it drop slightly below 1.2, say 1.1995, then suddenly plunge due to all the sell stops there? or will it gradually drop till some level before SNB intervenes?

If that happens, how do you think SNB will intervene, at what level?
If it hits those stops under 1.20 you would think it would tank
  • #8,680
  • Jul 23, 2012 3:16am Jul 23, 2012 3:16am
Quoting alaneth
I believe this peg is there to stay for sometime to come. Say another year?

But if (say just if) the peg breaks (due to say HF managers testing the peg attacking together), what is your opinion on it's pattern - will it drop slightly below 1.2, say 1.1995, then suddenly plunge due to all the sell stops there? or will it gradually drop till some level before SNB intervenes?

If that happens, how do you think SNB will intervene, at what level?
No, if the price penetrates the peg, the SNB has let it happen and the SNB will be the first to unload EURO, plus sl of long ones adding sell stops there we will see a free fall faster than what we have ever seen.
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