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EUR/CHF

  • #8,641
  • Jul 20, 2012 6:32am Jul 20, 2012 6:32am
SNB wants people to get bored & abandon their longs.... Then they will do something. And this time, it will be big.!
  • #8,642
  • Jul 20, 2012 6:44am Jul 20, 2012 6:44am
Quoting alaneth
SNB wants people to get bored & abandon their longs.... Then they will do something. And this time, it will be big.!
I hope your right but i just cant see it myself
  • #8,643
  • Jul 20, 2012 6:58am Jul 20, 2012 6:58am
I am surprised that some people here still believe than SNB is going to make a move. CHF is in "very" good shape (meaning not overpriced in the eyes of SNB )against all majors except EUR. The more EUR sinks, the more CHF sinks (because of the peg) against all currencies (excepet EUR). Nothing will happen before EUR recovers and it will take lots of time to do so. Floor will be there, but nothing more that that
  • #8,644
  • Edited 9:09am Jul 20, 2012 7:02am | Edited 9:09am
Quoting Mishko212
I am surprised that some people here still believe than SNB is going to make a move. CHF is in "very" good shape (meaning not overpriced in the eyes of SNB )against all majors except EUR. The more EUR sinks, the more CHF sinks (because of the peg) against all currencies (excepet EUR). Nothing will happen before EUR recovers and it will take lots of time to do so. Floor will be there, but nothing more that that

Maybe the selling pressure will intensify and force them into something.

It looks like the SNB are going to have to start defending 1.20 again soon.
  • #8,645
  • Jul 20, 2012 8:58am Jul 20, 2012 8:58am
Quoting Mishko212
I am surprised that some people here still believe than SNB is going to make a move. CHF is in "very" good shape (meaning not overpriced in the eyes of SNB )against all majors except EUR. The more EUR sinks, the more CHF sinks (because of the peg) against all currencies (excepet EUR). Nothing will happen before EUR recovers and it will take lots of time to do so. Floor will be there, but nothing more that that
This is confirmed by 10 year relative strength index.
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  • #8,646
  • Jul 20, 2012 9:46am Jul 20, 2012 9:46am
Quoting fred3
This is confirmed by 10 year relative strength index.
I agree and I dont think the SNB will do anything.
But they have stated that if eur/chf price continues to come under pressure and the euro situation worsens then they will do more.
  • #8,647
  • Jul 20, 2012 9:52am Jul 20, 2012 9:52am
Quoting fred3
This is confirmed by 10 year relative strength index.
... but this time it's an intervention. Can't really use RSI in an intervention right?
  • #8,648
  • Jul 20, 2012 12:27pm Jul 20, 2012 12:27pm
look at spanish bond yield, its scary
  • #8,649
  • Jul 20, 2012 12:35pm Jul 20, 2012 12:35pm
Quoting matheousse
look at spanish bond yield, its scary
Yep something's gotta give
  • #8,650
  • Jul 21, 2012 3:17am Jul 21, 2012 3:17am
Quoting Mishko212
I am surprised that some people here still believe than SNB is going to make a move. CHF is in "very" good shape (meaning not overpriced in the eyes of SNB )against all majors except EUR. The more EUR sinks, the more CHF sinks (because of the peg) against all currencies (excepet EUR). Nothing will happen before EUR recovers and it will take lots of time to do so. Floor will be there, but nothing more that that
good point, thats why i dont think SNB will raise floor, but in terms of strong capital inflow, i still think SNB has to stop or slow it down.
  • #8,651
  • Jul 21, 2012 3:18am Jul 21, 2012 3:18am
Quoting brinks
Maybe the selling pressure will intensify and force them into something.

It looks like the SNB are going to have to start defending 1.20 again soon.
yap, spanish yields above 7.1%
  • #8,652
  • Jul 21, 2012 4:04pm Jul 21, 2012 4:04pm
Quoting tim10167
yap, spanish yields above 7.1%
they probablu already intervening but i think big players are setting it up for maximum gain or max loss from retialers. To do this they will make it look like the peg is solid and when retailers are all long then they will break it and test snb. Even boj couldnt stand infront of the big players when tey are all together. I watched as boj tried to intervene but every bid was sold and more at a time when retialers were buying the usdjpy peg
  • #8,653
  • Jul 21, 2012 7:16pm Jul 21, 2012 7:16pm
Quoting brinks
I agree and I dont think the SNB will do anything.
But they have stated that if eur/chf price continues to come under pressure and the euro situation worsens then they will do more.
not more they can do if europe worsen since the chf behavior will be strong in the risk aversion situation
Bismillah
  • #8,654
  • Jul 21, 2012 9:28pm Jul 21, 2012 9:28pm
Quoting krunfx
not more they can do if europe worsen since the chf behavior will be strong in the risk aversion situation
chf is weird remem used to be safe haven not any more. I dont think they will have prob with too strong chf because with crackdown of banks holding foreign cash to evade tax the country will fall
  • #8,655
  • Jul 22, 2012 4:08am Jul 22, 2012 4:08am
Quoting sidhujag
chf is weird remem used to be safe haven not any more. I dont think they will have prob with too strong chf because with crackdown of banks holding foreign cash to evade tax the country will fall
did u realize that snb fx reserve increase month by month....think about that
Bismillah
  • #8,656
  • Jul 22, 2012 5:14am Jul 22, 2012 5:14am
Quoting sidhujag
they probablu already intervening but i think big players are setting it up for maximum gain or max loss from retialers. To do this they will make it look like the peg is solid and when retailers are all long then they will break it and test snb.
but the retailers are already (almost) all long. and for quite a long time ago. no one will be able to break the floor unless snb or swiss government decide that keeping the floor is more harmful and more expensive than giving up. and that's not going to happen in the near future
  • #8,657
  • Jul 22, 2012 5:23am Jul 22, 2012 5:23am
Trying Short next week
Short @ 1.2006 Stop @ 1.2016 ( SL 10 Pips ) Risk 1% TP : Open Trailing : active
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #8,658
  • Jul 22, 2012 6:04am Jul 22, 2012 6:04am
Quoting FXMindset
Trying Short next week
Short @ 1.2006 Stop @ 1.2016 ( SL 10 Pips ) Risk 1% TP : Open Trailing : active

So you think the floor will break before we see 1.2016?
  • #8,659
  • Jul 22, 2012 6:11am Jul 22, 2012 6:11am
Quoting brinks
So you think the floor will break before we see 1.2016?
I am trade based on technical not on hope/promised buddy,dont care SNB or BOJ

Based on technical outlook,I am see the formation already build and almost finish,looks like gonna breakout soon..whatever its up or down,am prefer short because I am saw breakdown formation on daily

1% Risk doesnt matter
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #8,660
  • Jul 22, 2012 6:17am Jul 22, 2012 6:17am
Quoting FXMindset
I am trade based on technical not on hope/promised buddy

Based on technical outlook,I am see the formation already build and almost finish,looks like gonna breakout soon..whatever its up or down,am prefer short
Yes thats fair enough.

me personally i think we will hit 1.2016 before we go below 1.20.

Having said that it wouldnt be the first time i have been wrong
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