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EUR/CHF

  • #8,621
  • Jul 18, 2012 1:34am Jul 18, 2012 1:34am
Quoting brinks
Can anyone shed any light on this statement ?

I haven't heard anything and think its unlikely.
No, I have seen nothing, news or rumor, about it.
  • #8,622
  • Jul 18, 2012 1:37am Jul 18, 2012 1:37am
Quoting holmes
No, I have seen nothing, news or rumor, about it.

No neither have I.

ZEW coming up doubt it will move the pair.
  • #8,623
  • Jul 18, 2012 2:09am Jul 18, 2012 2:09am
Quoting brinks
No neither have I.

ZEW coming up doubt it will move the pair.
sure it won't, however I wonder the move to 1.2013.
  • #8,624
  • Jul 18, 2012 2:56am Jul 18, 2012 2:56am
Merkel: Can’t be sure European project will succeed
Written by Gerry Davies
July 18, 2012 at 09:42 GMT
Headline on Bloomberg.
This is the trigger for the latest swoon in EUR/USD
But also
Optimistic that Europe will succeed

What are these politicians on why would she say that?
  • #8,625
  • Jul 18, 2012 6:03am Jul 18, 2012 6:03am
Swiss economy minister endorses EUR/CHF peg
Written by Adam Button
July 18, 2012 at 12:58 GMT
Schneider-Ammann says thankful for SNB for defending cap with all means
EUR/CHF near 1.20 still above purchasing power parity
  • #8,626
  • Jul 18, 2012 2:51pm Jul 18, 2012 2:51pm
http://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/ra...png?1342648114
  • #8,627
  • Jul 18, 2012 2:58pm Jul 18, 2012 2:58pm
Quoting brinks
Merkel: Can’t be sure European project will succeed
Written by Gerry Davies
July 18, 2012 at 09:42 GMT
Headline on Bloomberg.
This is the trigger for the latest swoon in EUR/USD
But also
Optimistic that Europe will succeed

What are these politicians on why would she say that?
its actually is not a bad thing as it will create a lot of volatility, and as a trader, we need volatility. Merkel always say things in two sides as Germany is afraid the southern countries stop their reforms.
  • #8,628
  • Jul 18, 2012 3:57pm Jul 18, 2012 3:57pm
I really believe that EURO will start gaining, because it's not about EU but about 500 millions market so if t drops further we will see QE3 from US and easing monetary policy from other partners, however from this pair it seems going nowhere and most of us have nothing new to add n the forum.
Switzerland economy is not doing well sure but better than other parts of world, SNB adding balance sheet can continue because it is far from bankruptcy, the industry there must try to compete other industries around the world and the peg 1.2 is hard but still capable. There are signs of deflation but there is an idea that it is the effect of last year CHF appreciation, there is housing bubble but it is because of low interest rates and the SNB doesn't need to get involved directly. There is capital flow and it is the effect of EURCHF peg and collapse of economy in EU. to sum up capital control must come sooner or later as the last resort, sth that developed countries have started and we will see that in Japan too, but if so it will go along with more monetary policy as moving the peg. The option is a mandate from the point of economy but the decision is political n Switzerland. I have no idea how long you can wait but going Short is absolutely wrong and going Long needs patience. As a trader the pair is dead and better to choose other pairs which show signs of movement.
  • #8,629
  • Jul 18, 2012 4:03pm Jul 18, 2012 4:03pm
Quoting holmes
I really believe that EURO will start gaining, because it's not about EU but about 500 millions market so if t drops further we will see QE3 from US and easing monetary policy from other partners, however from this pair it seems going nowhere and most of us have nothing new to add n the forum.
Switzerland economy is not doing well sure but better than other parts of world, SNB adding balance sheet can continue because it is far from bankruptcy, the industry there must try to compete other industries around the world and the peg 1.2 is hard but still...
Like the Macro analysis.. Also E/U should be retracement. Although its good for European countries having a weaker currency the US can't handle the increased expense. Looking to trade long
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #8,630
  • Jul 19, 2012 1:40am Jul 19, 2012 1:40am
Quoting holmes
I really believe that EURO will start gaining, because it's not about EU but about 500 millions market so if t drops further we will see QE3 from US and easing monetary policy from other partners, however from this pair it seems going nowhere and most of us have nothing new to add n the forum.
Switzerland economy is not doing well sure but better than other parts of world, SNB adding balance sheet can continue because it is far from bankruptcy, the industry there must try to compete other industries around the world and the peg 1.2 is hard but still...
I'm long this pair and am terrible with patience
  • #8,631
  • Jul 19, 2012 2:42am Jul 19, 2012 2:42am
I was long since Sept 20th, 2011.

Really tested my patience - lost halfway when I over leveraged in Dec 2011.

Soon it's going to be a year.... no harm to carry trade & TP on spikes up occasionally.

Today's trade balance show a slowdown. Economic figures cannot sustain long in +ve region. We'll see next week's KOF. When CPI turns bad, I think it is high time SNB will do something this coming Sept 14th. It's their 1st anniversary of the peg. And what's better than to throw in a surprise during this anniversary.
  • #8,632
  • Jul 19, 2012 3:08am Jul 19, 2012 3:08am
Quoting alaneth
I was long since Sept 20th, 2011.

Really tested my patience - lost halfway when I over leveraged in Dec 2011.

Soon it's going to be a year.... no harm to carry trade & TP on spikes up occasionally.

Today's trade balance show a slowdown. Economic figures cannot sustain long in +ve region. We'll see next week's KOF. When CPI turns bad, I think it is high time SNB will do something this coming Sept 14th. It's their 1st anniversary of the peg. And what's better than to throw in a surprise during this anniversary.
Well i hope your right
  • #8,633
  • Jul 19, 2012 3:43am Jul 19, 2012 3:43am
Quoting alaneth
I was long since Sept 20th, 2011.

Really tested my patience - lost halfway when I over leveraged in Dec 2011.

Soon it's going to be a year.... no harm to carry trade & TP on spikes up occasionally.

Today's trade balance show a slowdown. Economic figures cannot sustain long in +ve region. We'll see next week's KOF. When CPI turns bad, I think it is high time SNB will do something this coming Sept 14th. It's their 1st anniversary of the peg. And what's better than to throw in a surprise during this anniversary.
I think not on sept 14th before of after. I bet before.The only problem is Jordan too academic and conservative. Might wait for some figures before decision. Currently this week maybe we got to the offloading territory (yesterday looked like). So we might have to wait SNB to offload ~100BLN and then CHF can weaken on its own. Until:spikes and carry...
  • #8,634
  • Jul 19, 2012 3:45am Jul 19, 2012 3:45am
Quoting pipxster
I think not on sept 14th before of after. I bet before.The only problem is Jordan too academic and conservative. Might wait for some figures before decision. Currently this week maybe we got to the offloading territory (yesterday looked like). So we might have to wait SNB to offload 100BLN and then CHf can weaken on its own. Until:spikes and carry...
I have a feeling they will carry on as they are doing.
As you say and i have said in the past jordan is to safe.

(i hope that i'am wrong)
  • #8,635
  • Jul 19, 2012 4:20am Jul 19, 2012 4:20am
Yes, it seems like the hot cash inflows to Swiss is slowing rapidly and soon SNB will have the chance to unload EURs.

But seeing the EU crisis still far from over, will the inflows to Swiss rise again in the near future? The ESM will anyhow get approved by Germany, but is ESM a guaranteed solution to the EU crisis?

Maybe now we look for the short term (3mths) and hope ESM will hold & CHF will eventually weaken when depositors withdraw. Let's wait & see...
  • #8,636
  • Jul 20, 2012 12:24am Jul 20, 2012 12:24am
Hellooooo,
the pair is dead just to keep the room alive.
  • #8,637
  • Jul 20, 2012 12:39am Jul 20, 2012 12:39am
Quoting holmes
Hellooooo,
the pair is dead just to keep the room alive.
I think this one is the worst pair in the world.
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #8,638
  • Jul 20, 2012 12:49am Jul 20, 2012 12:49am
Yes this pair is totally dead now Even jordan and his friends from SNB are not giving any statements now.
  • #8,639
  • Jul 20, 2012 12:50am Jul 20, 2012 12:50am
Quoting holmes
Hellooooo,
the pair is dead just to keep the room alive.

Haha yes and the summer markets make it worse.
  • #8,640
  • Jul 20, 2012 1:12am Jul 20, 2012 1:12am
Quoting forexchecker
Yes this pair is totally dead now Even jordan and his friends from SNB are not giving any statements now.
It is a bit strange that jordan hasnt tried to talk this up so they can sell at a higher level
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