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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #319,181
  • Jul 19, 2012 11:16am Jul 19, 2012 11:16am
long euro 1.2270 (futures) reason for euro is that I missed the boat on cable as I was out for breakfast....euro has been lagging big time.....will watch careful.
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #319,182
  • Jul 19, 2012 11:39am Jul 19, 2012 11:39am
Quoting Faller
long euro 1.2270 (futures) reason for euro is that I missed the boat on cable as I was out for breakfast....euro has been lagging big time.....will watch careful.
good luck mate!
i'm in EJ whole week and screen whole TF and levels.

believe me... if the thing (EURO) start to go up, will print something spectacular and rarely seen before.
just like an explosion.

if not.... oh well... that's why we use stop loss!
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #319,183
  • Jul 19, 2012 11:41am Jul 19, 2012 11:41am
meanwhile... poor EUR Gbp
today printed 0.77 area.

looks like will be long time for me to go visit london
1000€ = 780£ without considering banks' spreads.

c'mon... gbp down or eur up. this value is insane for everything.
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #319,184
  • Jul 19, 2012 11:42am Jul 19, 2012 11:42am
so this pair is recovering and in uptrend the whole week, i only see sellers here, i know how frustrating can be to be stopped out or worse to stay in the market (against its trend), so no offense in this question, but are here any buyers also? Make money?
  • #319,185
  • Jul 19, 2012 11:47am Jul 19, 2012 11:47am
Quoting tunera
so this pair is recovering and in uptrend the whole week, i only see sellers here, i know how frustrating can be to be stopped out or worse to stay in the market (against its trend), so no offense in this question, but are here any buyers also? Make money?
everybody have different systems and market perceptions.
look for example i'm buying EJ whole week.
some one could say that i'm stupid (indeed i am... lol)

truth is that you never know next move.
there were good levels to short GU these days.
finally bulls won today breaking the monthly high.
until previous high (1.60 or so) must be very cautious with shorts

good luck
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #319,186
  • Jul 19, 2012 11:55am Jul 19, 2012 11:55am
Quoting _BBKing_
everybody have different systems and market perceptions.
look for example i'm buying EJ whole week.
some one could say that i'm stupid (indeed i am... lol)

truth is that you never know next move.
there were good levels to short GU these days.
finally bulls won today breaking the monthly high.
until previous high (1.60 or so) must be very cautious with shorts

good luck
Fully agree with BB.
I've been shorting cable and scalping on longs, and today my shorts looked risky but my short scalps were doing ok.
Three things I stick to as a rule:
Stop Loss!
Banked is Banked!
Stop Loss!
Show Me Your Pips!!!
  • #319,187
  • Jul 19, 2012 11:59am Jul 19, 2012 11:59am
Quoting tunera
so this pair is recovering and in uptrend the whole week, i only see sellers here, i know how frustrating can be to be stopped out or worse to stay in the market (against its trend), so no offense in this question, but are here any buyers also? Make money?

thats the thing, there are obviously still more buyers moving us up. Its true that if you took a cross section of sentiment right now (and for the past 3 days) most would be bearish. I have read almost every site that indicates sentiment and everything is bearish (apart from the price).

Maybe, its why i dont understand the SSI either, everyone is selling so they expect the price to move in the opposite direction?
Money never sleeps...
  • #319,188
  • Jul 19, 2012 11:59am Jul 19, 2012 11:59am
Quoting Faller
long euro 1.2270 (futures) reason for euro is that I missed the boat on cable as I was out for breakfast....euro has been lagging big time.....will watch careful.

Closed plus 20 pips on 3 contracts - I am an intra day trader....yes would be nice to catch the once in a lifetime explosion....but that is just hope.

Here is a chart of my 2 trades on the Euro one from last night and the second one was just closed 5 mins ago - posted my entry earlier in this forum.

Faller.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2 Eruo Long Trades.jpg Size: 164 KB
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #319,189
  • Jul 19, 2012 12:32pm Jul 19, 2012 12:32pm
Quoting inpatient
thats the thing, there are obviously still more buyers moving us up. Its true that if you took a cross section of sentiment right now (and for the past 3 days) most would be bearish. I have read almost every site that indicates sentiment and everything is bearish (apart from the price).

Maybe, its why i dont understand the SSI either, everyone is selling so they expect the price to move in the opposite direction?
Yes, they expect price to move in the opposite direction because it's a statistical fact that most of the times the crowd (the majority of retail traders) go against the trend, and when the trend change profits are taken very fast and new trades against the new trend start to develop.
The fact that retail traders sell or buy is totally irrelevant by the way, i think if all retail traders buy a particualr pair in a particular moment with all the buy-power (leverage), we may see maybe a 5-10pips spike (maybe less), absolutely no way that what retail traders do can influence the market.

Oh by the way me too am a retail trader
  • #319,190
  • Jul 19, 2012 12:44pm Jul 19, 2012 12:44pm
why ?
Quoting Red Alert
Bad US data, all in red, mean, US down.....cable will be flying high.....1.58xx
not euphoria follower
  • #319,191
  • Jul 19, 2012 12:52pm Jul 19, 2012 12:52pm
imho
==========
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...8&d=1342663713
==========
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1342680582
not euphoria follower
  • #319,192
  • Jul 19, 2012 1:12pm Jul 19, 2012 1:12pm
Quoting tunera
Yes, they expect price to move in the opposite direction because it's a statistical fact that most of the times the crowd (the majority of retail traders) go against the trend, and when the trend change profits are taken very fast and new trades against the new trend start to develop.
The fact that retail traders sell or buy is totally irrelevant by the way, i think if all retail traders buy a particualr pair in a particular moment with all the buy-power (leverage), we may see maybe a 5-10pips spike (maybe less), absolutely no way that what retail...

But surely then the SSI simply proves that retail traders go against the trend and increasingly so the deeper the trend? The market moves up, more retail traders go short. This means the market is driving the traders and has nothing to do with the traders giving an insight into where the market is going (which is as you have pointed out driven by non retail traders).

The market moves first and the traders follow with their orders. Im still not seeing why this gives an insight into the future direction of the market?
Money never sleeps...
  • #319,193
  • Jul 19, 2012 1:26pm Jul 19, 2012 1:26pm
seems like 1.5720 got some sellers
  • #319,194
  • Jul 19, 2012 1:34pm Jul 19, 2012 1:34pm
Long GBPUSD @ 1.5715 SL @ 1.5700

This has pair has been choppy albeit not as much as the EU. Expecting a short run up here by market close.
  • #319,195
  • Jul 19, 2012 1:34pm Jul 19, 2012 1:34pm
Quoting letscry
seems like 1.5720 got some sellers
Indeed. Check out taomql4's post above. There's been lots of supply in this area going back to June.
  • #319,196
  • Jul 19, 2012 1:40pm Jul 19, 2012 1:40pm
Quoting leveraged
Long GBPUSD @ 1.5715 SL @ 1.5700

This has pair has been choppy albeit not as much as the EU. Expecting a short run up here by market close.


brave
Money never sleeps...
  • #319,197
  • Jul 19, 2012 1:47pm Jul 19, 2012 1:47pm
Quoting inpatient
brave

Actually I've been trading it all day along with EU.
  • #319,198
  • Jul 19, 2012 1:48pm Jul 19, 2012 1:48pm
i am pretty sure that oil prices keeping this lady strong...
  • #319,199
  • Jul 19, 2012 1:48pm Jul 19, 2012 1:48pm
Quoting inpatient
But surely then the SSI simply proves that retail traders go against the trend and increasingly so the deeper the trend? The market moves up, more retail traders go short. This means the market is driving the traders and has nothing to do with the traders giving an insight into where the market is going (which is as you have pointed out driven by non retail traders).

The market moves first and the traders follow with their orders. Im still not seeing why this gives an insight into the future direction of the market?
(when i write traders i mean retail traders)

Let's look at it from a different prespective, the SSI (sentiment index of fxcm clients) as long as the other traders sentiment indicators, are not much different from a chart.
When price go up, the sentiment is usually bearish, as most of traders look to pick a top, and viceversa for the buys during downtrend.

I think the "power" of the sentiment index don't lay in the wrong analysis of traders, most of traders are very good at analyzing the market, and i mean most of the time their analysis are correct.
An average trader have a huge number of winning trades, and only a few loosing ones.

The predictive SSI powe lay behind the trade management of retail traders, that sistematically take the profits very quickly, and let the losses run.

So, example, if everybody have buy trades opened, chances are that such trades are floating losses, price is going down, and will go more down in the future (predictive power).
On the other hand, if market reverse and such floating losses becomes profits, such profits are taken very quickly, and the sentiment change (everybody have not buy trades anymore).

It's an interesting phenomenon, and very powerful.
  • #319,200
  • Jul 19, 2012 2:01pm Jul 19, 2012 2:01pm
Quoting tunera
(when i write traders i mean retail traders)

Let's look at it from a different prespective, the SSI (sentiment index of fxcm clients) as long as the other traders sentiment indicators, are not much different from a chart.
When price go up, the sentiment is usually bearish, as most of traders look to pick a top, and viceversa for the buys during downtrend.

I think the "power" of the sentiment index don't lay in the wrong analysis of traders, most of traders are very good at analyzing the market, and i mean most of the time their analysis are...
Now that makes more sense, most traders are short and thus holding negative trades, of course if they were in profit they have a tendency to close them out.

some seriously complicated stuff in trading tech. I always thought i was smart..
Money never sleeps...
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