EurAnalysis

Crude that is...

Done for the day. Time to go an enjoy a little bit of riding. I've placed a sell limit at 1.2315 which I think will get hit tonight in the Asian session or London. There's market talk that Bernanke will be cutting on the Interest on Excess Reserves. This is unconfirmed. http://talking-forex.com/headlines/134710

Enjoy your afternoon/evening/morning/night!

Cheers!

first thing i apologise to u,i dont think we have answer ur question properly,tom did a very good job answering ur question but to understand his rational, one need a good amount of experience.
i will try to answer ur question and see where it lead us.
to analyse any market and be profitable u need to keep few things in mind and always stick to it.there are 4 elements u need to be very aware of and apply in ur trading
1.trade with the trend
2.cut ur loses
3.letting ur profit run
4.managing risk.
out of the above 4 elements, 1st and 4th are the most important which u can learn in any good trading book and 2nd and 3rd are psychological which u have to discover by urself becos they are very unique to everyone.
in this post i am going to discuss a bit about trade with the trend along with the managing risk becos they are both interrelated.

all the traders are trend trader,there is no such trader species called contratrend trader becos these trader also trading the trend but on the shorter time frame hence its critical for one to choose a proper time frame,the one which ur comfortable with.
the problem with smaller time frame is its very difficult to exploit it hence my suggestion is to stick with longer time frame.the difficulty for the trader to sticking with bigger time frame is ur risk management,becos ur stops will be a function of ur account size and number of pips it should be away as per ur chart pattern, and amount of money on percentage basis u like to loose, and still u wont loose ur sleep if something bad happen.
so first thing u have to do is find time frame where u will be very comfortable ie if u take a position such that if position go against, u can still sleep properly. i am stressing this point again which is very important that u select a time frame which allow u to take a position with its own trend where u can sleep properly, say if ur unable to sleep its means only two thing either ur size of position is two big for ur account or ur time frame is wrong.good luck and green pips to all

Hey guys

After looking at all possible trade setups and fundamental information etc...

I have decided Im taking today off unless something major hits the wires. We are kind of in a no mans land and frankly I dont see any high probability trades that work with my methodology

Good luck guys. Ill bbl if warranted with any updates

Wulf

good morning all!

such a busy day yesterday didnt get a chance to check charts - didnt take profit but SL taken out BE plus 1 so no biggie..

trade again when Ive had a good review and look of all the charts later - another busy morning ahead - happy pips everyone

hey bro

you mean riding as in a motorbike??

Yes, I have a '93 Yamaha Virago 1100cc.

sweeet! thats a lovely ride = its the bike in the pic hey...

I treated myself to a new bike 2 months ago - already racked up 2000 plus km on it just on this small island haha

its the ducati monster 1100 evo - thing is I love it so much I use it as my everyday transport..

Sweet! That's a nice ride as well. Wish I could use it for everyday transport, but I've not figured out how to take that hairpin turn going up the stairs from the kitchen to my upstairs office!

Of note: Moved my sell limit from 1.2315 to 1.2355 (today's Daily S2 level). I think the Euro has had one too many cans of Red Bull and has grown wings. Long from 1.2280 with a TP at Daily S2 where it will trigger my sell limit. Or so the game plan is. Also long crude from 88.60 with a 40 pip training stop and a limit of , get this... $90

and agreed on euro.. Ive had a cheeky lil short triggered - will let it play out - super tight stop loss..

I have a 4rh utl at arounf 2355 area if euro keeps it redbull guzzling - but also have weekly R1 at 2335 - reckon if both go the 2377 is monthly S1 for me..

isnt forex just fun........... LOL

maybe euro is onto something..?!? LOL

http://bestdemotivationalposters.com...nal-Poster.jpg

closed 3/4th of my long position with 65 green pips.the reason is in downtrending market one has to book profits early rather than letting the profit run.i may add to my position if price touch 1.2250

Good morning everyone

It's been a whole week since my last update and the reason for that is simple. Not much has happened really. The Euro continued to grind lower until that yet to be explained pop up on Friday. Since then we saw the pair cancel out almost the entire pop only to turn around and pop back up even higher.

So, has sentiment changed all of a sudden? Has the situation improved? Are we now looking at a potential reversal? The answer is NO on all three counts. What we have seen is some weak short covering on hopes/fears of the Fed launching further QE. It's all over the media and from what I understand, Mr. Market is salivating and frothing at the mouth for it. Will it happen? NO. But that's what speculation (hope/fear) is all about. Buy the rumor, sell the news.

Today at 1400 GMT, Bernanke testifies in front of the joint economic committee and I can assure you that Mr. Market will be listening intently for any possible clue that the Fed may launch QE3. It's basically the last chance before the US elections. Well I really don't know why anyone would believe that the Fed will ease more. Perhaps once you're hooked on liquidity, you just can't get enough of it. Market psychology has shown many times in the past that when the market wants/needs something, they convince themselves that it will come and they trade/invest accordingly.

So, are we going to see another pop upwards at London open? There is certainly some technical room for that to happen. In fact we could see a further pop upwards to 1.2400/20 area before we see exhaustion. Other levels below that are 1.2355/65 area and 1.2310/15 area (the last of which we already reached overnight). If we see those levels today, I intend to add to my short positions.

So what's happening today before Benny testifies?
At 09:00 GMT, we get the ZEW economic sentiment index for Germany and the entire EuroZone.
At 12:30 GMT, we get the US m/m CPI and Canada releases their m/m manufacturing sales
At 13:00 GMT, the BOC releases its rate statement. There has been talk of a rate hike, but the market is going to be very disappointed if it is positioning itself for such a move.
At 13:15 GMT, we get the US industrial production and the capacity utilization rate.
Then finally at 14:00 GMT, the market focuses on the "pièce de résistance". Benny testifies.

Typically, Benny's opening statement is published before he has a chance to say "good morning". You can find a copy of such release on this web page once it is published, but it is my experience that the media gets to see a copy well beforehand so that they are prepared to report on it as soon as Benny sits down and before he has a chance to have his first sip of water. Regardless of what his opening remarks signal or don't signal, the meat of the testimony will be in the questions he is asked by the committee members and how he answers them.

Technically, I am still targeting 1.2090 as a minimum move down. We almost got there and I suspect that today we will get the disappointment from Bernanke that will set us back on track to reach it and below. As most of you know, my ultimate target is 1.1750 or lower and I will not consider turning bullish until either I see that price print on my charts, or some miracle happens in Brussels.

Good luck today and many green pips to all.

E/U Daily


E/U H4

Today’s orderboard

Written by Pete Jackson
July 17, 2012 at 06:29 GMT

EUR/USD: Offers 1.2300/10 (talk ACB supply), buy stops through 1.2315 ahead of more offers 1.2330/50 (real money, supranational). Sell stops through 1.2275 ahead of bids 1.2250/60. Sell stops through 1.2240 ahead of bids at 1.2200/10 (barrier 1.2200)

GBP/USD: Offers 1.5680/00, Bids 1.5640/50 sell stops below, ahead of more bids 1.5590/1.5610

EUR/GBP: Tech supp/bids 0.7835/40 and 0.7800/05 (0.7800 barrier). Tech res 0.7870/75 0..7910/15

USD/JPY: Offers 79.40/50 and 79.90/00. Bids at 78.50/60, talk of barriers 78.50, 78.25. and 78.00. Sell stops through 78.50. Offers 78.90/00, likely buy stops through 79.05 (200 day MA), and more offers 79.20/30.

EUR/JPY: Offers 97.20/30 and tech res 97.70/80. Bids 96.65/75 and 96.15/25, likely sell stops through 96.00

AUD/JPY: Tech res now around 81.20/25 (200 day MA at 81.21), offers 81.30/40. Bids 80.70/75, tech support 80.45/50 ahead bids 80.00/80 large sell stops through 79.95

EUR/CHF: Bids 1.2000/10(SNB), Offers 1.2025/50 buy stops through 1.2055

AUD/USD: Offers 1.0300/10 buy stops through 1.0315 and tech res/offers 1.0330/50 (ACB, Commercial RBA offers). Tech supp 1.0275/80 (200 day MA 1.0277), bids 1.0240/50 and 1.0200/10

EUR/AUD: Bids 1.1920/35, likely sell stops below ahead of tech projection 1.1890/95. Offers 1.2000/10,

NZD/USD: Bids/tech support 0.7955/65 (200 day MA 0.7959) and 0.7935/45. Tech res /offers 0.7980/00 (100 day MA – 0.7983) and 0.8030/40

USD/CAD: Bids 1.0130/40, and 1.0100/10, tech supp 1.0105/10 (200 day MA 1.0109). Offers 1.0150/60 and tech res 1.0170/75

PT

The word on the street is repatriation

That last rally from 1.3150 to 1.4246 was due in large part to the open swap lines heavy use from French banks. Rumor is the same game is being played. Do I think It will lead to a 1000 pt rally? No, I expect the move to be capped by the 1.2460/1.2502 or at the EXTREME 1.2695

Take it for what its worth. There is no actual Proof of this. Just lots of chatter.

Ill be watching Bernanke intently. I HIGHLY doubt he will cut the IOER to negative. This would be damaging to institutions(Bernankes own words in fact).

Anyhow Im not trading at all until we get to some numbers I can work with.

Good luck guys

Today's option expiries at 1400 GMT for the Euro

1.2400
1.2300
1.2250
1.2200
1.2190
1.2100

Important to keep in mind that Bernanke testifies at 14:00 GMT today (same time as option expiries) so I don't expect these expiries to have much influence on price.

Now price is right in the middle of fib retracements of the daily descending channel. So there is room to go 120 pips either way.

Duly noted. Thanks Wulf. It's good to know that such talk is circulating. However, In order to keep one's sanity in this business, one has to focus on the facts only.

120 pips up from current levels will take us to 1.2410 area
That would require a break of the falling channel resistance which currently comes in around 1.2390, so I would say 1.2390 is a more likely maximum. However, as we all know, trend lines and channels are not the holy grail.

E/U H4