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  • #42,961
  • Jul 16, 2012 5:45am Jul 16, 2012 5:45am
Quoting Cgb
Actually, without volume it makes it impossible to confirm or validate breakouts of chart patterns. Volume is an integral component of TA
Most traders don't know how to use volume in Forex. It's not calculated the same as in equities bro.
  • #42,962
  • Jul 16, 2012 6:00am Jul 16, 2012 6:00am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Most traders don't know how to use volume in Forex. It's not calculated the same as in equities bro.
Let us know how we can use volume in Forex.... and how we can realize ...
  • #42,963
  • Jul 16, 2012 6:00am Jul 16, 2012 6:00am
Quoting tradercnx
How do you use volume in Forex may I ask?
That is something that could take days if not longer to understand. You should search FF for info on the subject if you are interested in incorporating it into your TA.
  • #42,964
  • Jul 16, 2012 6:04am Jul 16, 2012 6:04am
Quoting AlwaysLost
Do u have any statistical data , documents , news/ fundies links to support your statements. Don't mind to share.
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1342123200.php

This economist and newsletter author has been ahead of the curve for the last 5 years. His article of July 12, 2012 is quite revealing. Others that I follow like Grant Williams Hmmmm that PipTrapper posts a link to each week says the same thing. Read his piece and see if you get the same sense of things that I do.

Snippet:


LABOR MARKET IN TATTERS
The USEconomy requires around 140 thousand jobs to stay neutral, as population growth is absorbed. This important point was often stated back in 2004 and 2005 and 2006. But it is not made any longer, since the goal is to achieve 100k to 200k jobs. The Non-Farm Jobs report is widely regarded to be a farce display, with a powerful fudge factor that can bring about almost any final figure desired. The Birth-Death Model is a travesty. Let this statistical analyst assure that an auto-regressive integrated moving average model of 11th order is nonsense in the Time Series arena of modeling artistry. The BDModel is designed to track small business job growth, since the NFPayroll survey does not. Instead the BDModel is used as a fudge factor with no bearing whatsoever on the reality of small business climate. The Natl Federal of Independent Businesses has its own measures, and in the last three years they have been uniformly negative. Yet the BDModel continues to add jobs to the official estimate.

MONTH
ORIGINAL
REVISED
BDMODEL
NET
March
+153k
+133k
+90k
+43k
April
+115k
+68k
+206k
minus 138k
May
+69k
+77k
+204k
minus 127k
june
+80k

+124k
minus 44k


The table displays the trend in revision downward, and removes the fallacious fabricated fiction that is the Birth-Death Model fudge factor. The USGovt Bureau of Labor Statistics could not tolerate posting a negative job growth number in consecutive months, to reflect the true condition of the reeling USEconomy. So the fudge factor enters the equation. Blatant deception, kind of like constantly updating the seasonal factor adjustments in monthly statistics, another common gimmick.

MONEY SUPPLY CORRELATION
The correlation between the Gold price and USGovt outstanding debt had been rather tight, like in a death match wrestling. Then in 2011, the masters of the banking universe decided to double down on their uneconomic naked short positions for Gold, and worse. When the USFed or Euro Central Bank have taken bold steps that show both desperation and a broken financial system, the hidden actions have been intense since late 2011 and into year 2012. The massive Dollar Swap Facility dispensed over $3 trillion over European banks. The entire QE dispensed more than $2.5 trillion over US banks. The Operation Twist embarked on a new approach that involved more secretive monetary expansion, but also simultaneous with much higher volume cartel short positions for Gold futures contracts. Correlation like what is shown between the Gold Price and outstanding debt at the USTreasury are rare indeed outside the scientific laboratory. Such is the power evident in hyper monetary inflation and the elicited response.

http://67.19.64.18/news/GoldenJackass/2012/7-12gj/2.png

  • #42,965
  • Jul 16, 2012 6:08am Jul 16, 2012 6:08am
Good morning folks.

Woke up to green pips again Before going to bed I placed a limit on my E/U at 1.2187 which is our Daily S1 line today and it got closed for +54 from Friday's short. I also placed a short on G/U at 1.55923 with a target being the confluence of the 55EMA and the 200SMA on the hourly chart at (I figured would be around) 1.55223 and that also got closed for +50 pips.

Now the question is, do I go golfing or do I continue to trade having met my daily target?

From a technical perspective, I see a falling wedge on the hourly chart that had a break out (last Friday) and a throwback since Sunday's open and has now just touched the upper trend line and is moving back up. A falling wedge can be both a reversal and a continuation pattern. If the wedge occurs with the prevailing trend being down, then it's a reversal pattern. If it occurs against the prevailing trend, it's a continuation.

Read more about it here: http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...g_wedge_revers

My TDI signals are indicating oversold on the 15M and 1H timeframes. The 4H dearly needed a correction at the end of last week and got it on Friday. It is now heading back south along with the daily.

So the short term is indicating a possible retrace to the low 1.22xx before continuing down and heading for the its ultimate target of low 1.17xx.

While writing this I opened a small long at 1.2187 with SL below today's low (so much for golfing huh?). TP is opened but will most likely be the 55EMA on the hourly.

Best of luck to everybody and many green pips to all!

Cheers!
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I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #42,966
  • Jul 16, 2012 6:12am Jul 16, 2012 6:12am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Most traders don't know how to use volume in Forex. It's not calculated the same as in equities bro.
Indeed it isn't but it still reflexs the market sentiment. Volume in Forex is the number of ticks (price updates) being pushed out to you from your broker in a given timeframe. The better the broker, the more tick updates you get and a better reflection of the true market sentiment.
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #42,967
  • Jul 16, 2012 6:13am Jul 16, 2012 6:13am
Don't tell me you can't incorporate volume analysis into TA.

For those not fully aware of Tom William's work, Sonic's Indy can help, especially with its alerts (and a grave-yard doji too).....now will the S1 level give an early US Session bounce.....TWT
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #42,968
  • Jul 16, 2012 6:13am Jul 16, 2012 6:13am
Quoting tradercnx
I use the futures volume as a guide. The FX volumes you see on your platform are only the volume going through from your broker.
Quoting tradercnx
In other words you don't want to say. Doesn't bother me I've been trading futures for a very long time and know how to use volume. But in FX it's pretty much a waste of time. You have to use the futures volume.
Allow me to make a distinction here which you seem to be missing or overlooking.

Yes it is true that the volume you see on your charts are coming from your broker. However, it is not based on the actual trade volume at the broker but rather based on the number of ticks (price updates and/or changes) received through the feed from your broker. A true ECN broker or a broker that does not meddle with the quotes you receive offers the most accurate tick volume you can get. This volume is certainly significant as it indicates how active the market is at the time.

Therefore, claiming that the volume from your broker is useless, in most cases is inaccurate and misleading. Yes many brokers (or bucket shops) mess with price so much (as in fixing spreads or delaying quotes by a second or two), that it is useless. However, a good broker provides a true representation of market activity in your volume indicator.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #42,969
  • Jul 16, 2012 6:13am Jul 16, 2012 6:13am
Quoting tradercnx
In other words you don't want to say. Doesn't bother me I've been trading futures for a very long time and know how to use volume. But in FX it's pretty much a waste of time. You have to use the futures volume.

Hey bro. Maybe you didn't read my post but don't put words in my mouth or stir sh#t up in here.

If you already know how to use volume then why ask? Why are you always stirring sh#t up in this thread.
  • #42,970
  • Jul 16, 2012 6:15am Jul 16, 2012 6:15am
Quoting Islander
Don't tell me you can't incorporate volume analysis into TA.

For those not fully aware of Tom William's work, Sonic's Indy can help, especially with its alerts (and a grave-yard doji too).....now will the S1 level give an early US Session bounce.....TWT
  • #42,971
  • Jul 16, 2012 6:15am Jul 16, 2012 6:15am
Quoting FXSwissTrader
Hey bro. Maybe you didn't read my post but don't put words in my mouth or stir up sh#t in here.

If you already know how to use volume then why ask? Why are you always stirring sh#t up in this thread.
Okay cool it buddy. Don't add fuel to the fire.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #42,972
  • Edited 6:20am Jul 16, 2012 6:17am | Edited 6:20am
it seams am stil nt very granded in fx trading can some1 pls put me tru what am suppose to know. i trade and make both profit and losses. i realy want to be on the profiting side of forex ols fellow traders help
  • #42,973
  • Jul 16, 2012 6:18am Jul 16, 2012 6:18am
Well, it is a great downtrend, but I would like some correction. I wasnt able to enter since april and would like to leverage more. Now I am thinking of entering at very low levels (like 2285 or 23275), which could hurt me a lot.

But anyway, even if I dont manage to enter, I still have 2:1 leveraged short, so I am fine.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #42,974
  • Jul 16, 2012 6:18am Jul 16, 2012 6:18am
Quoting tradercnx
In other words you don't want to say. Doesn't bother me I've been trading futures for a very long time and know how to use volume. But in FX it's pretty much a waste of time. You have to use the futures volume.
When the Red bars or the Green are longer they show more activity. I never used Futures however that is of interest to me. Good Morning All.

Right now the Dow Futures are down 28 and Oil is down so we have some Risk Off. I look at the Yield on the 2 Year US Bonds and see an amazing .23 % with the 10 Year at also an amazing 1.48%.

Europe is ALL in the Red and Gold is down $8.10 at $1583 US.

USD/JPY is stronger at 79.00 and so we have the Risk Off Currencies being the US Dollar and Japan Yen.

Geither speaks LIVe on CNBC at 8:30 AM most likely about his Libor warning years earlier.

Follow the money flow between Asset Classes as they lead the charts.

http://finviz.com/forex.ashx

http://finviz.com/fx_image.ashx?rela...80198181442500
  • #42,975
  • Jul 16, 2012 6:20am Jul 16, 2012 6:20am
Quoting odinj
.. what am suppose to know
You need to know that you know nothing. Works for me. Restekp the market.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #42,976
  • Jul 16, 2012 6:25am Jul 16, 2012 6:25am
Quoting PipTrapper
Good morning everyone.

The term of the day is "Status Quo" as the market is still stuck in the same tight range as yesterday. Price did manage to pierce the daily pivot yesterday and closed at the high but managed to slip below the new lower daily pivot during Asian trade and broke below the M5/M15 rising channel which resembled more a bear flag than any attempt to form a bullish bias.

Anyway, one good thing did come out of it for me as I managed to get a short entry at a better price (1.2314) than the one that had triggered on Sunday night...
pls sir may u guide me tru sm tips on hw to analyse the fx market
  • #42,977
  • Jul 16, 2012 6:26am Jul 16, 2012 6:26am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
You need to know that you know nothing. Works for me. Restekp the market.

T
I Know That I Know You Which Means That I Know Something As You Teach Me Goodness.

Have A Nice Day. I Love Real People.
  • #42,978
  • Jul 16, 2012 6:26am Jul 16, 2012 6:26am
Hi friends
we are in short teritory right now...
targets for today 2170,,,2140,,,2129,,,
above 2240,,, 2270,,,

here is my chart..
Cheers
aligater
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born to speculate
  • #42,979
  • Jul 16, 2012 6:26am Jul 16, 2012 6:26am
Quoting tradercnx
Well I did not know FX volume was tick based. All due respect I still don't see how this helps because it's the total volume of contracts bought or sold that moves a market. Maybe I'll have to take a closer look at this, thanks.
Forex is a cash market... OTC (over the counter). Since it is not exchange traded, contract size is not available unless it is only from your broker... in which case it would be (as you say) a waste of time.

ADD: I must also add that analysing futures volume to determine volume in Forex is akin to looking out your window to see how much traffic there is on your street as a way of determining how much traffic there is on the freeway.... waste of time. (with all due respect)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #42,980
  • Jul 16, 2012 6:32am Jul 16, 2012 6:32am
Well, odin, its very weird question you know? Everyone has his own methods how to explore the market. I think that there are so many external variables influencing the price that one can understand this system only with heavy study. Lets say 50 years.

I think you should start with basics, which are three:

Fundamentals: You need to know how money flows, how it seeks yield between different asset classess. What CBs do. What is a liquidity. How OTC market works, his size, who can influence it. How international market works, how goods flow. Generally, imho it is very usefull to gain your own knowledge and then hang out around FF to fill in the blanks. Thats what I do.

Technical: To learn technicals, try babypips.com, there is great overview. Keep in mind that fundamentals beat technicals. Screw some support when you know Spain is about to bankrupt.

Psychological: For me personally, the most important part. Well, how to describe it. Price you see is created by supply and demand for a currency. Both of these come from investors. Some theories say that society made of sane individuals will be sane as well. I dont think so and my research is heavily focused on behaviour of crowds. If you wish, I can expand here.

Well, thats it. And the last thing, which wont help you to identify trend, but which will save your ass if you identify wrong trend. Money management. It is very essential not to get broke when you are wrong .

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
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