EurAnalysis

US retail sales and empire state manufacturing index coming up in 5 minutes.

Out my long at target of 55EMA on hourly for another +25

Terrible and so it goes. The Dow Futures are down 40 and we have a RED DAY in the Dow unless there is intervention.

Risk Off and so the Momentum is out of most assets and into USD/JPY and US Bonds which moves US Dollar Index UP and since EUR/USD is 57.6% of the Index then EUR/USD moves down.

Watch the Dow open and price of Gold.

The Yields on the 2 Year US Bonds and 10 Year US Bonds at .23% and 1.47% will show where the Money is flowing. If we go towards .21 and 1.45% then MORE money is going in US Dollar FIRST and then US Bonds.

Watch USD/JPY now at 78.87

We are now into the NAIR effect. North American Retail Event changed to NAIR for other reasons.

That means the Retail Trade buys the Euro before the markets (Equities) open at 9:30 AM. (A Bit Like Buy The Rumor, Sell The News)

Then we have Option Expiry at 10:00 AM and Europe covers positions as Equities close there at 11:30 AM.

There is NEVER 100% Correlation in anything. You need to be aware of many factors or you could just trade Price Action or the Charts as they go up and down. Dow Future now only down 40 so we are on hold or we have INTERVENTION !!!

Empire State helped out against Bad Retail Sales.

Stay Tuned

Current Outlook

http://ih.constantcontact.com/fs082/...9975/img/3.jpgGlobal Equity Indices
Daily chart Simple Moving Average (SMA) areas are dominating near-term technical outlooks on Equity Indices, with S&P 500, Russell 2000, and German Dax all trading around 100-day SMA resistance. In contrast, the Dollar Index and 10-year Treasury Note values have cleared major SMA areas and are using them as strong areas of technical support. It will take an increase in current participation and momentum levels to change the view that US Equity Indices look rich to fair value.

S&P 500 Futures (ES) have 1340, 1325 and 1295 as the main support areas, with 1375 upside resistance. Russel 200 Futures (ER2) has 783, 770, and 765 as main support areas, with 820 as upside resistance. German Dax Futures (FDax) are consolidating in a very tight channel that are building cause and effect between 6270 support and 6590 resistance. The break and hold of Equity Indices support areas will likely trigger continued selling pressure through Quarter 3 trade. These are pivotal price points, being hit at pivotal times.

US Dollar and Treasuries
The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading with 79.80 support firmly in place, and with 89.10 as upside resistance. The dislocation between ES and DXY inverse correlations reveals that either S&P 500 stocks are overvalued at the moment, or that USD trade is coming back to test support. With the storm-in-a-teacup look and feel to major currency pairs, which cannot generate sustainable movement in either direction, it would seem that the path of least resistance favors Major Currency selling at resistance.

10-year Treasury Futures (ZH) reveal that stocks maybe be more vulnerable to a pull-back than the dollar, at least until traders see a break of ZN support at 133.30. Treasury Note values also suggest S&P 500 prices are out of line with Credit Market momentum. Interest Rate (Credit) Markets have dominated Equity (Capital) Market momentum, and signal that money flows continue into bonds ahead of stocks.

Gold, Silver and Crazy
Bullion markets continue to move along in their side-winding pattern of trade that sees no sign of breaking and easily holding, in either direction. Gold Futures (XAU) support and resistance are in place between 1500 and 1650. Silver Futures (XAG) support and resistance are in place between 25.50 and 31.30. WTI oil charts have a crazy feel to them, which look like manipulated price action charts that have created contained (yet extreme) volatility.

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Thanks for telling me what my charts were saying all along this morning before the move occured!

If you held on to that trade long enough, you're well into the green by now. Congrats buddy

Guys, you know me, I am paranoid. Now I think someone is boosting the market so we dont break down into oblivion. You know why is he boosting it? Because tomorrow Bubbles testifies and he is able to send us up 200 pips more without even mentioning QE.

Imo this cant be just those sales. Those are just retail sales. Thats it. It has nothing in common with FX market except for the fact it is indicator of economic health. But there are much much more important indicators than this one. So, this (and friday) is intervention imo.

T

Interesting thought. I can see your point, the EUR is in a right mess.
Intervention by whom though?

Me.. Muhahahahahaha

Closed all accounts and all shorts positions with green pips. Thanks PT and EuroAnalysis Members and GL to everybody.

The remaining long on gu closed for 220pips

You taking profit on your shorts???

the time is now, i hope. shorted @ 87,30

anyone reload any shorts? took a small one, tight stop

Yep, shorted at 12220 t0 12240

Originally Posted by PipTrapper

Good afternoon Guys,
I 've been reading your thread For some time now , it's great, bees and honey!
I fully agree with Tom and his conspiracy theory, on friday they pushed it circa 90 pis on the thin air. So today just before the news I entered my long at 2184 with tight SL betting on the bounce from the linear regression channel upper band and with the little help of my friends in retail they began pushing it higher for no apparent reason. I think to stick with m long with b/e sl for some time. What do you think,I am enthusiastic beginner trading real from Nov 2011(not losing much so far )

'Just because you are not paranoid, does not mean they are not out to get you'

nice, also realized daily pivot is at 1.22473 and weekly 1.2245, looking for a decent bounce

Yep. 1.2235 for me. Same as Friday. My magic number

My daily pivot is 1.2220 (based on GMT+0)

I hope so too, maybe back to the daily lows -- looks like wall street wants to bring it back down again off the daily pivot for now.