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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #42,981
  • Jul 16, 2012 4:36am Jul 16, 2012 4:36am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Well, odin, its very weird question you know? Everyone has his own methods how to explore the market. I think that there are so many external variables influencing the price that one can understand this system only with heavy study. Lets say 50 years.

I think you should start with basics, which are three:

Fundamentals: You need to know how money flows, how it seeks yield between different asset classess. What CBs do. What is a liquidity. How OTC market works, his size, who can influence it. How international market works, how goods flow. Generally,...
Keep up the good works. You are on the right road. Now Practise makes perfect. We agree on almost all issues here. I always leave some space to improve on. Nothing is 100%.
  • #42,982
  • Edited 4:44am Jul 16, 2012 4:38am | Edited 4:44am
Quoting CurrencyMan
... Follow the money flow between Asset Classes as they lead the charts.
"They lead the charts". How am I to follow the money flow between asset classes if I can't look at charts??? Throw darts? Read tea leaves? Charts are the leading indicators and it's the combination of multiple charts (of different asset classes) that can provide an indication of possibly where the money is flowing.

I wish you'd stop saying that because it's misleading to those who are just starting out and don't have much experience doing technicals.
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #42,983
  • Jul 16, 2012 4:39am Jul 16, 2012 4:39am
Quoting odinj
pls sir may u guide me tru sm tips on hw to analyse the fx market
Hi Odinj,

First of all welcome to EurAnalysis. Everyone is encouraged to share here but you cannot expect to find an instant education from the posters. Asking a general question like that will get you nowhere. Everyone is busy trading.

If what you read here is not enough for you, then I suggest you read page 1. There you will find many links to educational resources which you may find very helpful. While you are there, please take some time to read the rules and objectives. If you have a specific question, don't hesitate to post it.

PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #42,984
  • Jul 16, 2012 4:42am Jul 16, 2012 4:42am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Well, odin, its very weird question you know? Everyone has his own methods how to explore the market. I think that there are so many external variables influencing the price that one can understand this system only with heavy study. Lets say 50 years.

I think you should start with basics, which are three:

Fundamentals: You need to know how money flows, how it seeks yield between different asset classess. What CBs do. What is a liquidity. How OTC market works, his size, who can influence it. How international market works, how goods flow. Generally,...
Well said Tom
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #42,985
  • Jul 16, 2012 4:50am Jul 16, 2012 4:50am
Hope everyone has a good pipful week

What's the sentiment for today? Are we still shorting the euro with every chance we get?

What would you guys think about 1.2220-1.2230 area as a short term shorting opportunity, as of course I have missed the move down in London session?

Thanks for the feedback
  • #42,986
  • Jul 16, 2012 4:56am Jul 16, 2012 4:56am
Quoting Cgb
"They lead the charts". How am I to follow the money flow between asset classes if I can't look at charts??? Throw darts? Read tea leaves? Charts are the leading indicators and it's the combination of multiple charts (of different asset classes) that can provide an indication of possibly where the money is flowing.

I wish you'd stop saying that because it's misleading to those who are just starting out and don't have much experience doing technicals.
Please let me be CLEAR. It is 100% accurate to state that the Money Flow leads the charts. If the Dow goes down 200 what Chart predicts it in ADVANCE ? As the Dow goes down we have RISK OFF. The money leaves Oil, Euro and other currencies and Asset Classes.

US Dollars are bought and the money then is used to buy the US Bonds. I mainly follow the 2 Year and 10 Year however I also watch the 5 Year and 30 Year.

I NEVER said do not use charts. I use charts and they make up 25% of the Tools in my Toolbox. I use Fundamentals for the other 25% and I combine that with Good Risk Management for another 25% and lastly however MOST IMPORTANT in my opinion is control of your fears, greed and Ego. That is the other 25%.

This method works for me however depending on your make up it may not work for you or other traders.

Risk On or Risk Off starts the Ball Rolling and that then creates Money Flow which in turn changes the charts just like happened this morning with EUR/USD.

I hope you understand that this is my view and you are entitled to yours without putting down mine.

Peace Out !!!

This post is NOT MEANT to be an opinion or a debate.

If you disagree fine that is your right. I will not debate a fact that is not in doubt.

Have a great day and make lots of PIPS using whatever method works for you.
  • #42,987
  • Jul 16, 2012 4:56am Jul 16, 2012 4:56am
Just to remind you. 22039 is june 2010 monthly close. I have marked it red on the left side of the chart. It is a starting point of this cycle. In my books, this is incredibly important breakpoint.

T
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #42,988
  • Jul 16, 2012 5:01am Jul 16, 2012 5:01am
Orderboard (updated)

Written by Pete Jackson
July 16, 2012 at 11:24 GMT

EUR/USD: sell stops through 1.2180, ahead of tech support/sovereign bids 1.2160/70 (1.2150 possible barrier) large sell stops through 1.2150. Offers 1.2250/60 (real money, sovereigns) and 1.2290/00 (funds) buy stops up through 1.2300

GBP/USD: Offers 1.5570/80, tech res 1.5595/1.5610 (cloud base 1.5595). Bids 1.5520/30 and 1.5500/10

EUR/GBP: Tech supp 0.7840/45 and 0.7800/05 (0.7800 barrier). Offers 0.7880/00, 0.7915/20, 0.7945/50

USD/JPY: Offers 79.40/50 and 79.90/00. Bids 78.90/00 from Japanese pension funds (also tech cloud base 78.95), with more below at 78.50/60. Sell stops through 78.50

EUR/JPY: Offers 97.00/10 and 97.50/60. Bids 96.00/20, likely sell stops below

AUD/JPY: Tech res now around 81.15/20 (200 day MA at 81.19), offers 81.30/35. Bids 80.40/45 and 80.00/10 large sell stops through 79.95 ahead of tech supp 79.35/45

EUR/CHF: Bids 1.2000/10(SNB), Offers 1.2025/50 buy stops through 1.2055

USD/CHF: Offers 0.9890/00,(0.9900 barrier and again up at 0.9950) Bids 0.9800/10 and 0.9780/90.

AUD/USD: Bids 1.0200/10, possible sell stops below ahead of bids 1.0180/90. Offers 1.0250/60, Tech res 1.0270/75 (200 day MA 1.0275)

EUR/AUD: Bids 1.1930/35, likely sell stops below ahead of tech projection 1.1890/95. Offers 1.2005/15, 1.2050/60 and 1.2090/00, possible buy stops above

NZD/USD: Bids 0.7900/10. Tech res /offers 0.7980/00 (100 day MA – 0.7983)

USD/CAD: Bids 1.0130/40, tech supp 1.0110/15 (200 day MA 1.0111). Offers 1.0150/60 and tech res 1.0180/90
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #42,989
  • Jul 16, 2012 5:02am Jul 16, 2012 5:02am
Is this a bearish flag forming and coming to test ressistance? Yep, it is. I am considering to sell low .

Edit: Well, not anymore, it broke down. I think I wont be able to enter till rest of the year. But screw that if we are going to hit 1.17.

T
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #42,990
  • Jul 16, 2012 5:04am Jul 16, 2012 5:04am
Quoting CurrencyMan
Please let me be CLEAR. It is 100% accurate to state that the Money Flow leads the charts. If the Dow goes down 200 what Chart predicts it ? As the Dow goes down we have RISK OFF. The money leaves Oil, Euro and other currencies and Asset Classes. US Dollars are bought and the money then is used to buy the US Bonds. I mainly follow the 2 Year and 10 Year however I also watch th 5 Year and 30 Year.

This post is NOT MEANT to be an opinion or a debate.

If you disagree fine that is your right. I will not debate a fact that is not in doubt....
Explain to me how you follow the money flow beforeit's displayed on any chart, because what you're stating is that the flow occurs prior to being posted on any charts and the chart is nothing but a lagging indicator.

So what are you using to follow these asset classes?
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #42,991
  • Jul 16, 2012 5:05am Jul 16, 2012 5:05am
If I fart, once you smell it, is it present or future?

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #42,992
  • Jul 16, 2012 5:11am Jul 16, 2012 5:11am
For those that want more info on Volume Spread Analysis in Forex, Malcolm's thread has plenty of info...also, look out for posts by HiddenGap, there are fewer of them and he's a real Price Action / VSA expert.....

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...=241760&page=2
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #42,993
  • Jul 16, 2012 5:12am Jul 16, 2012 5:12am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
If I fart, once you smell it, is it present or future?

T
If you fart, I am history
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #42,994
  • Jul 16, 2012 5:13am Jul 16, 2012 5:13am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
If I fart, once you smell it, is it present or future?

T
Past and Future. It is a lagging indicator showing the amount of gas being created by the decomposition of digested foods. However, knowing what was eaten before the decomposition process began is a leading indicator as to the amount of gas that's going to be produced.
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #42,995
  • Jul 16, 2012 5:13am Jul 16, 2012 5:13am
Well, coming to get some fresh air. Cant sell it this low as clearing of London shorts could kill me. So I am back for NY. Cya,

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #42,996
  • Jul 16, 2012 5:13am Jul 16, 2012 5:13am
putting on my red shoes. let's dance
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  • #42,997
  • Jul 16, 2012 5:14am Jul 16, 2012 5:14am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
If I fart, once you smell it, is it present or future?

T
Well my wife just accused me of letting one go, so I guess telepathy works .....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #42,998
  • Jul 16, 2012 5:17am Jul 16, 2012 5:17am
Quoting Cgb
Explain to me how you follow the money flow beforeit's displayed on any chart, because what you're stating is that the flow occurs prior to being posted on any charts and the chart is nothing but a lagging indicator.

So what are you using to follow these asset classes?
That's easy.. I follow my chart (premium broker) and then 2 seconds later, it appears on your chart (bucket shop broker)

Jokes aside, I too would like to know the answer to that question. It is true that the transaction takes place first and then it is reflected on the charts. Assuming it is not a bucket shop broker, the lag is approx 25 to 100 milliseconds
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #42,999
  • Jul 16, 2012 5:21am Jul 16, 2012 5:21am
Quoting Islander
Don't tell me you can't incorporate volume analysis into TA.

For those not fully aware of Tom William's work, Sonic's Indy can help, especially with its alerts (and a grave-yard doji too).....now will the S1 level give an early US Session bounce.....TWT
Was also reading Tom Williams and trying to follow VSA for a bit and it certainly makes sense, but as a novice it was probably a bit too much too soon for me I felt. However I did get the impression that on my demo accounts the FXCM volume corresponded better than Alpari volume to the "paid for" volume feeds that some vsa traders were using ..just in case you hadn't considered that already.
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #43,000
  • Jul 16, 2012 5:24am Jul 16, 2012 5:24am
Quoting Islander
Well my wife just accused me of letting one go, so I guess telepathy works .....
http://fc09.deviantart.net/fs70/i/20..._E_122_Psi.png
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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