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EUR/CHF

  • #8,561
  • Jul 13, 2012 7:54am Jul 13, 2012 7:54am
Quoting alaneth
Exness has the worst spikes ever !
Forget the good +ve swap. When the spikes go down to 1.1975 or so, I lost all my money. When I asked them, they say they do STP thru the banks etc etc. But excuses only.

I put in money again the second time, but later withdrew all again when it get spikey again. Their response on withdrawal is amazingly fast.

But my advice, don't trade EURCHF at Exness due to the terrible spikes. They only go on stop hunting & when you try to buy limit in these spikes, you don't get any.

I trade with AVAFx. They pay EUR1.53...

Do you trust Hotforex? How long have u traded with Hotforex?
  • #8,562
  • Jul 13, 2012 9:06am Jul 13, 2012 9:06am
Quoting tim10167
hedge funds finally got tired of selling EUR/CHF, this is a big fundamental change:



Euro holds steady against Swiss franc even as it drops sharply against other currencies
-- Evidence points to continued net inflows into the Swiss franc
-- Suggests SNB is working extra hard to keep euro-franc floor intact

By Jessica Mead

The euro is collapsing against pretty much every major currency, with one notable exception: the Swiss franc.
The common currency has held stubbornly above CHF1.20 against the franc, the minimum...
I don't think the tide is turning yet
  • #8,563
  • Jul 13, 2012 10:14am Jul 13, 2012 10:14am
Quoting Blue.Trader
Do you trust Hotforex? How long have u traded with Hotforex?
Since Feb this year. Chose HF due to it's good eurchf swap previously. Now still +ve.
Withdrawals are easy & customer service is good.
Spread is variable but around 2pips.
So far so good with HF.
But to be safe, I keep my eurchf game with a few other brokers too.
  • #8,564
  • Jul 13, 2012 10:17am Jul 13, 2012 10:17am
Quoting brinks
I don't think the tide is turning yet
no, the bigger picture hasnt changed, I am actually waiting for the German constitution court to pass the ESM (90% it will I think) because we may get a spike!
  • #8,565
  • Jul 13, 2012 10:17am Jul 13, 2012 10:17am
Quoting brinks
And the fact that if they lift the floor the euro chf rate would be dropping like a stone.

Anyone like to guess how quickly the rate would get to 1.00000 if the SNB abandon the floor
3 working days. Faster if SNB unloads their EURs. But it will be suicidal to the Swiss economy.
  • #8,566
  • Jul 14, 2012 3:33pm Jul 14, 2012 3:33pm
I think that the cap at EUR/CHF will hold for another months .. its too much at stakes (SNB credibility, their very big positions, exporters)

- in last two months SNB bought more than 120 billions of EURO against CHF
- in case of fail, i think that we could see parity in 10 trading days, which would be for exporters very dangerous (in 2007 was exchange rate 1.67, it would be 67% change in just 5 years, which is very difficult)

I think that main problem are fresh money flows (from Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain and French high wealthy persons, who prefer safety at first place .. ) + extremelly high level of speculation thanks to peg .. what big hedge funds risk? With their Stops 300 - 500 pips (3 - 5%) they can target profit 2000 - 3000 pips at least (20 - 30%), which is very great TP:SL ratio .. (the problem is that world is too big and Swiss so small, thats why in long term i think that SNB will fail)

My tactic is simple .. im holding long with SL 35 pips under 1.2000 with target 1.23 - 1.25 in 6 months + in case of break 1.1875 i will start hardly selling with SL 1.2020 and TP somewhere around 1.05 - 1.00.
  • #8,567
  • Jul 15, 2012 1:40am Jul 15, 2012 1:40am
Quoting price trader
I think that the cap at EUR/CHF will hold for another months .. its too much at stakes (SNB credibility, their very big positions, exporters)

- in last two months SNB bought more than 120 billions of EURO against CHF
- in case of fail, i think that we could see parity in 10 trading days, which would be for exporters very dangerous (in 2007 was exchange rate 1.67, it would be 67% change in just 5 years, which is very difficult)

I think that main problem are fresh money flows (from Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain and French high wealthy persons,...
good tactic
  • #8,568
  • Jul 15, 2012 4:47am Jul 15, 2012 4:47am
Quoting price trader
I think that the cap at EUR/CHF will hold for another months .. its too much at stakes (SNB credibility, their very big positions, exporters)

- in last two months SNB bought more than 120 billions of EURO against CHF
- in case of fail, i think that we could see parity in 10 trading days, which would be for exporters very dangerous (in 2007 was exchange rate 1.67, it would be 67% change in just 5 years, which is very difficult)

I think that main problem are fresh money flows (from Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain and French high wealthy persons,...
Nice strategy.
  • #8,569
  • Jul 15, 2012 5:13am Jul 15, 2012 5:13am
Quoting price trader
My tactic is simple .. im holding long with SL 35 pips under 1.2000 with target 1.23 - 1.25 in 6 months + in case of break 1.1875 i will start hardly selling with SL 1.2020 and TP somewhere around 1.05 - 1.00.
Only problem I see here is that you won't get stopped out 35 pips below 1.20, more like 135 pips! Make sure you don't use too much leverage or you may not have enough funds to trigger the short sell.
  • #8,570
  • Jul 15, 2012 8:56am Jul 15, 2012 8:56am
any chance for a gap this weekend?...
  • #8,571
  • Jul 15, 2012 9:35am Jul 15, 2012 9:35am
Quoting rcrist
any chance for a gap this weekend?...
I don't see any reason why there would be a gap open today
  • #8,572
  • Jul 15, 2012 12:05pm Jul 15, 2012 12:05pm
Many of you are long on this pair, if the SNB cut the rates for negative, let's say -0.25, when will you close your longs? at 1.22, 1.25 or do you expect more?
  • #8,573
  • Jul 15, 2012 1:29pm Jul 15, 2012 1:29pm
Quoting holmes
Many of you are long on this pair, if the SNB cut the rates for negative, let's say -0.25, when will you close your longs? at 1.22, 1.25 or do you expect more?
even if SNB cut rates i don't think we will see 1,22. most of us will be happy with 1,205-1,207
  • #8,574
  • Jul 15, 2012 1:43pm Jul 15, 2012 1:43pm
Quoting Adi_M
even if SNB cut rates i don't think we will see 1,22. most of us will be happy with 1,205-1,207
But the rumor moved the pair for 70 pips, and negative ratre can have short term and long term effect as well.
  • #8,575
  • Jul 15, 2012 1:51pm Jul 15, 2012 1:51pm
Quoting Fizzerr
Only problem I see here is that you won't get stopped out 35 pips below 1.20, more like 135 pips! Make sure you don't use too much leverage or you may not have enough funds to trigger the short sell.
Agree with you, this could be problem, because only retailers have several billions of euro in stops under 1.2000 .. but if you remember situation at USD/JPY from last year, where there was all time low 79.75 and psychological level and big support 80.00, when stops was hitted from lot of japanese retailers (10+ billions of USD) the market wasnt so bad, my stops was hitted and filled with only 5 pips gap (45 standard lots) -> only after break 79.00 became chaos and market fall down 300 pips in 15 minutes (from currenex data i saw, that from 77.50 to 77.03 there was only 50 millions of liquidity, which was crazy for bigger players)
  • #8,576
  • Jul 15, 2012 2:13pm Jul 15, 2012 2:13pm
Quoting holmes
But the rumor moved the pair for 70 pips, and negative ratre can have short term and long term effect as well.
i know but SNB will want to get rid of the EUR that they have and they will sell it massively. i don't think we will see 1,22 again until some of the EZ problems are fixed
  • #8,577
  • Jul 15, 2012 2:16pm Jul 15, 2012 2:16pm
1.21500
  • #8,578
  • Jul 15, 2012 2:22pm Jul 15, 2012 2:22pm
Quoting brinks
1.21500
What 1.2150?
  • #8,579
  • Jul 15, 2012 2:24pm Jul 15, 2012 2:24pm
Quoting holmes
What 1.2150?
That's the first place I would be looking on negative rate news,it popped up 70 pips on rumour alone.
  • #8,580
  • Jul 15, 2012 2:25pm Jul 15, 2012 2:25pm
cant download any attachment why pls?
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