1minute 1 trade | Page 63 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Can you teach me Carry Trade and Swing Trade? 5 replies

Golden rule: trade the trade! 16 replies

usa trade balance cad trade balance 6 replies

Philly Fed later - trade or not to trade? 10 replies

Months to trade or not to trade Forex? 2 replies

Attachments: 1minute 1 trade
Exit Attachments

1minute 1 trade

  • #1,241
  • Jul 13, 2012 9:49am Jul 13, 2012 9:49am
You can expect far more than 10 loosing trades in a row when trading a system with R/R 3:1 because the hitrate will normally be lower the higher the R/R is.
I don't know what the hitrate on this system is. Probably nobody knows yet but i guess somewhere around 35%-40% at best.
I don't know how many losers in a row to expect on a hitrate like that but far more than 10 i am sure. And then maybe you get a couple of winners and you can have many losers again. If you google you can find mathematical formulas to calculate things like that. Nothing is for sure of course but you can get a idea of what to expect.
To have a lot of losers is not a bad thing. All systems with "low" hitrate and/or high R/R have "many" loosing trades. It can still be a very good system.
But i don't understand why so many of you gamble with this VERY HIGH risk. With 5% risk you are doomed to fail... But that is just my opinion...

Arctic4x
  • #1,242
  • Jul 13, 2012 12:19pm Jul 13, 2012 12:19pm
For now, since I am in the U.S., EST, I can only trade a day or two a week, when I take off from work. I plan in leaving work, for good, soon, and want to continue Forex trading.
I have been seeing statements here like, 40% loss and not one win in 10 days.
Is that how it is going with 1minute 1 trade lately, or are those just bad experiences.
Thanks,
FranksBiz
  • #1,243
  • Jul 13, 2012 12:48pm Jul 13, 2012 12:48pm
Quoting FranksBiz
I have been seeing statements here like, 40% loss and not one win in 10 days.
Is that how it is going with 1minute 1 trade lately, or are those just bad experiences.
That is not "how it is going with 1minute 1 trade lately". That is just how trading and the markets works.
If you just read the post before yours you will see that 40% loss in 10 days will happen regularly if you use 5% risk pr trade but that is not the worst. If you trade a 100% mechanical system with R/R 3:1 the hitrate will make you blow your acc if you use that huge risk. That is not something that can happen at worst case. It will happen. You do not need a lot of experience in trading to know that. Just look up some statistics and math formulas and you will see there is no way around it.

Why not just trade the system with "normal" risk? Then you will probably make money. I have not tested or even studied the system but from what i can see in the first posts it seems logic so i will not be surprised if it is a winner. Maybe even a big winner..? Who knows...? If everybody trade it "kamikaze style" we will probably never know.

Arctic4x
  • #1,244
  • Jul 13, 2012 1:05pm Jul 13, 2012 1:05pm
Quoting Rahimseven
Based on the system I have had no winners for the last 10 trading days

-50%
Why you use no filter?
  • #1,245
  • Jul 13, 2012 1:11pm Jul 13, 2012 1:11pm
both are so true! but people don't listen

Quoting Arctic4x
I don't know how many losers in a row to expect on a hitrate like that but far more than 10 i am sure.


But i don't understand why so many of you gamble with this VERY HIGH risk. With 5% risk you are doomed to fail... But that is just my opinion...

Arctic4x
  • #1,246
  • Jul 13, 2012 2:52pm Jul 13, 2012 2:52pm
Quoting Arctic4x
That is not "how it is going with 1minute 1 trade lately". That is just how trading and the markets works.
If you just read the post before yours you will see that 40% loss in 10 days will happen regularly if you use 5% risk pr trade but that is not the worst. If you trade a 100% mechanical system with R/R 3:1 the hitrate will make you blow your acc if you use that huge risk. That is not something that can happen at worst case. It will happen. You do not need a lot of experience in trading to know that. Just look up some statistics and math formulas...
It's
Obvious if you risk 5% per trade it can add up quickly, but a lot less damage than otherwise. I know 5% times 10 days is 50% possible loss. Of course the 3 times that or 15% take profit will, hopefully, recoup the losses. It’s just when you see others state it in black and white it is a little unsettling, but I understand. Thanks for your response, it helps me to focus.
FranksBiz
  • #1,247
  • Jul 13, 2012 4:29pm Jul 13, 2012 4:29pm
Quoting FranksBiz
Thanks for your response, it helps me to focus
You are welcome
I hope other people also understand that 10 losers in a row is very normal for a system like this.
Earlier in this thread Paulus posted a video here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...19#post5822519
Around 20 minutes in to that video you will find a formula how to calculate expected numbers of losers in a row if you know the hitrate and so on. Like i wrote in my last post we don't know the hitrate for this system but i guess we are not to far off if we say around 35%. Then that formula tell us that we will have a losing streak of 25 sooner or later.

Here is a screenshot from that video:
Attached Image
  • #1,248
  • Jul 14, 2012 4:45am Jul 14, 2012 4:45am
It sounds like people keep forgetting that if you risk for example, 10% per trade and you get 10 lossers, you do not wipe out your account. With every trade after a loss, the lot sizes do decrease when you size your lots by %'s. With every trade after a winning trade, the lot sizes increase.

Keep this in mind when you begin to worry about 10 or 15 losses in a row.

jt
"Even if you fall down face first, you still went forward."
  • #1,249
  • Jul 14, 2012 5:17am Jul 14, 2012 5:17am
Quoting juicyt
It sounds like people keep forgetting that if you risk for example, 10% per trade and you get 10 lossers, you do not wipe out your account. With every trade after a loss, the lot sizes do decrease when you size your lots by %'s. With every trade after a winning trade, the lot sizes increase.

Keep this in mind when you begin to worry about 10 or 15 losses in a row.

jt
agree

after 20 losers in a row a £1K account would sit at around £358, after 30 £214 and at 50 losers in a row £80.

all approx.
  • #1,250
  • Jul 14, 2012 5:38am Jul 14, 2012 5:38am
I think that on the 1 min timeframe to achieve 3:1 you are going to need a spread of about 0.2 from your broker. Because most of the swings are only about 10 pips or so.
You need to have a small stop to achieve that, on that time frame . Some of you people are having say 7 to 10 pip stops on the 1 min charts, trying to get 21 to 30 pips target. To me thats way to much, a lot can happen in that time frame and you could be open for a hour or so to try and acheive that.

I would be looking for 10 pip swings and a 2:1 risk reward or maybe you need to go to the 5 min charts for the 3: 1 .

Paulos , The guy in that video is Nick Radge he lives near me and is a very good trader I wish i was as good as him.
Enter Signature
  • #1,251
  • Edited 6:12am Jul 14, 2012 5:55am | Edited 6:12am
Quoting juicyt
It sounds like people keep forgetting that if you risk for example, 10% per trade and you get 10 lossers, you do not wipe out your account. With every trade after a loss, the lot sizes do decrease when you size your lots by %'s. With every trade after a winning trade, the lot sizes increase.

Keep this in mind when you begin to worry about 10 or 15 losses in a row.

jt
That is correct.
And something else many traders also forget is that it will take far more time/trades to recover after a drawdown when you use % of the acc for lot size. (I am not saying % of the acc for lot size and MM is bad. I use it myself)
For simplicity lets say you trade a system with R/R 1:1. And lets say you have a very bad period and after 20 losers in a row you are down 50% of your acc. You will not be back where you started after after 20 winning trades because you have to make 100% profit to get back.
If you have several losing streaks with only a few winners here and there in between (that happens to all systems and all traders) it is very hard to get back.

Arctic4x

Here is a short but good video about MM and risk. "Make more money by trading smaller":

Inserted Video
  • #1,252
  • Jul 14, 2012 8:43am Jul 14, 2012 8:43am
Quoting ECO
I think that on the 1 min timeframe to achieve 3:1 you are going to need a spread of about 0.2 from your broker.
Best observation in this thread by now. I said that in PVT to Strada too.

Could i get an answer to that newbie question? There is any ECN broker wich will do the job to trade this strategy? Oanda have 1 pip most of time or there are requotes and slippage that will make impossible to trade this?
  • #1,253
  • Jul 14, 2012 9:48am Jul 14, 2012 9:48am
Quoting stricky1967
agree

after 20 losers in a row a £1K account would sit at around £358, after 30 £214 and at 50 losers in a row £80.

all approx.
..... Don't discount that statistically the same maths applies positively as well.

As we're dealing with pure probability a starting bank of £1K would see £1.1m if you have 50 winners, those odds may appeal to some people.

  • #1,254
  • Jul 14, 2012 10:02am Jul 14, 2012 10:02am
Quoting giraia_br
Best observation in this thread by now. I said that in PVT to Strada too.

Could i get an answer to that newbie question? There is any ECN broker wich will do the job to trade this strategy? Oanda have 1 pip most of time or there are requotes and slippage that will make impossible to trade this?
fxprimus had most time 0.2 and i do really good with the strategy from p.
but i filter more and i have just one looser in round about 5 weeks.
  • #1,255
  • Jul 14, 2012 10:05am Jul 14, 2012 10:05am
Quoting stricky1967
..... Don't discount that statistically the same maths applies positively as well.

As we're dealing with pure probability a starting bank of £1K would see £1.1m if you have 50 winners, those odds may appeal to some people.

Well.... the problem is that with a R/R of 3:1 mechanical system the hitrate will be to low for that to ever happen, but 20 losers in a row WILL happen...
  • #1,256
  • Jul 14, 2012 10:10am Jul 14, 2012 10:10am
Thanks everyone for the comments on losses. I was getting a little shaky about it, and it’s good to see different rationale to the reason and affect. The thing that concerns me is I have been using trading systems for about a year. Some robots. They all work for a while, and then, when the market conditions chage, they stop working. I always thought if the trading system didn’t change to allow for the market conditions, the system is doomed. It’s good to see people sticking with the system as it is and are still confident in it.
Thank you all.

Frank
  • #1,257
  • Jul 14, 2012 11:05am Jul 14, 2012 11:05am
Quoting Arctic4x
20 minutes in to that video you will find a formula how to calculate expected numbers of losers in a row if you know the hitrate and so on. Like i wrote in my last post we don't know the hitrate for this system but i guess we are not to far off if we say around 35%. Then that formula tell us that we will have a losing streak of 25 sooner or later.
That formula might be accurate for a coin-flip type of application (with very few variables), but for an environment like the EUR/USD forex market, there are literally 100s of different factors involved. Simply judging future probabilities on past hitrates is not necessarily going to be accurate. Given the very nature of the EUR/USD market and the timing of entries in this system (London session - generally very active), a break in the biased direction is going to happen often enough so that 25 losses in a row is nearly impossible (I'd like to say completely impossible, but my experience says that nothing is completely impossible). In fact, given the criteria from post #1, I'd say that even 10 losses in a row would be very rare.

Something "very major" would have to happen in the EUR and/or USD economies to alter the volatility of EUR/USD to allow for 25 losses in a row. In this case, one would think that a smart trader would notice such an event and suspend the strategy before 25 losses.
  • #1,258
  • Jul 14, 2012 11:24am Jul 14, 2012 11:24am
Quoting Fame of me
fxprimus had most time 0.2 and i do really good with the strategy from p.
but i filter more and i have just one looser in round about 5 weeks.
do you trade live with this broker?

thanks for answer.
  • #1,259
  • Jul 14, 2012 12:00pm Jul 14, 2012 12:00pm
Quoting zznbrm
Simply judging future probabilities on past hitrates is not necessarily going to be accurate.
What we have been talking about the last couple of pages here do not even have to be in the neighborhood of accurate. It is good enough for a discussion like this to know that many losers in a row is what can be expected regularly. But before people start trading the system live with real money it is of course important to have some accurate numbers and statistics for those trading it.
Quoting zznbrm
In fact, given the criteria from post #1, I'd say that even 10 losses in a row would be very rare.
I have not been reading the whole thread and i have not tested or studied the system but as far as i can remember the reason i started posting here was because i see someone posting that he already had 10 losers in a row, and the testing of the system have just started. So it seems to me it is not at all rare. Maybe he was wrong or maybe he did not follow the rules? I don't know.
Anyway i agree that 25 losers in a row do not sound like something that is very likely but to say something is impossible and can never happen is very dangerous when it comes to trading.

Arctic4x
  • #1,260
  • Jul 14, 2012 12:35pm Jul 14, 2012 12:35pm
Quoting juicyt
It sounds like people keep forgetting that if you risk for example, 10% per trade and you get 10 lossers, you do not wipe out your account. With every trade after a loss, the lot sizes do decrease when you size your lots by %'s. With every trade after a winning trade, the lot sizes increase.

Keep this in mind when you begin to worry about 10 or 15 losses in a row.

jt
You can calculate the effect to your trading capital by these simple formulas:

Loosing streak,

(1 - % / 100) ^ streaklenght

Winning streak,

(1 + % / 100) ^ streaklenght

For example the position risk 10% (huge) and you have a 10 trade streak:

Loosing: (1 - 10 / 100) ^ 10 = 0,35 (35% still left)
Winning: (1 + 10 / 100) ^ 10 = 2,59 (capital now 2,59 times the original)
3 traders viewing now