im looking at a drop around 1.5358 by friday.
Cable Update (GBPUSD)
- #318,641
- Jul 12, 2012 7:56am Jul 12, 2012 7:56am
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2010 | 2,739 Posts
- #318,642
- Jul 12, 2012 8:22am Jul 12, 2012 8:22am
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2010 | 2,739 Posts
can anyone explain me something?
NFP was crap and it ment risk off as USa eco is crap and cannot help out Europe
Unemployed was good and it ment again risk off as it would normal be as US eco is stronger so USD stronger than EUR
....soo..why for some good news in USA we have risk off and for some bad news we have again risk off.
so last week there were 16k people less hired previous month but the claims dropped....good one
this only proves there are no fundies
NFP was crap and it ment risk off as USa eco is crap and cannot help out Europe
Unemployed was good and it ment again risk off as it would normal be as US eco is stronger so USD stronger than EUR
....soo..why for some good news in USA we have risk off and for some bad news we have again risk off.
so last week there were 16k people less hired previous month but the claims dropped....good one
this only proves there are no fundies
- #318,643
- Jul 12, 2012 8:25am Jul 12, 2012 8:25am
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: left CanaryWharf desk-tea break | 24,286 Posts
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
- #318,644
- Jul 12, 2012 8:28am Jul 12, 2012 8:28am
- Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Resident Psychiatrist!!! | 2,600 Posts
- #318,646
- Jul 12, 2012 8:35am Jul 12, 2012 8:35am
- | Joined Jul 2007 | Status: I deal in lead | 393 Posts
can anyone explain me something?
NFP was crap and it ment risk off as USa eco is crap and cannot help out Europe
Unemployed was good and it ment again risk off as it would normal be as US eco is stronger so USD stronger than EUR
....soo..why for some good news in USA we have risk off and for some bad news we have again risk off.
so last week there were 16k people less hired previous month but the claims dropped....good one
this only proves there are no fundies
- #318,647
- Jul 12, 2012 8:38am Jul 12, 2012 8:38am
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2010 | 2,739 Posts
only proves theres too much to consider to be news trader ,unless your expert ,no need anyway
I mean obvious fundies are in front of our eyes.we are living decadent times and we are on a spiral for destruction.
the whole drop was easy to see since we saw too many expensive cars in the hands of the rednecks,too many expensive houses bought on a coupon loan and dream holidays paid by CC.
I lived times in Greece some years ago when Brits had no dime in their pockets to buy anything...a coke,a candy,nada,zip..but they were spending a 5 k EUR vacation in a 5 star ultra all inclusive resort...all on credit card.
this had to implode somewhere...it was all there,in front of our eyes.
I sold GU since 1.63 aiming for 1.46 but I realised long term swings are not for me.
now I am trapped with my longs that I will gladly drop @ BE as soon as we bounce back.
maybe I'll add shorts there maybe I'll trils the longs.
for now I have no clear direction till tmr.
if we close daily under 1.5404 we see 1.5351 if we close above we see 1.5480-84 were are sellers again
In my language ''fund'' means ''ass'' ...so fundies are nothing but assnews for me
)you have them in front of you but you don't see the future comming faster.
if a war will start tmr or a vulcano will paralize europe's transport,tourism bla bla then all the levels on the downside will be washed away.
I shorted EU as well up there @ 1.50 aiming for 1.20 till latest march this year...there are even some charts posted but I failed.greeks bounced the market back up 1000 pips : )
imagine if some EUR countries will find a lot of gold or oil .....
neah,daytrade and techs only.
- #318,648
- Jul 12, 2012 8:43am Jul 12, 2012 8:43am
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2010 | 2,739 Posts
My amateur analysis - NFP numbers weren't great, but they came out better than what was expected. So those with positions based on worse than expected numbers needed to readjust to reality.
sorry to come back
80K
97K
77K
97 was expected and 80 was the number.
77 was the previous month...so it came 3 k better than a previous month but 17k under expectance.
last year it was simple.
good news for USD then EU drops
good news for EU ,EU climbs as simple as that
this year....EZ crisis is linked to USA.if USA numbers are bad EU is bad as well as investors and Obama wanted to save the world.....dunno how as they still hold the highest debt in the whole universe.
news confuse me.when there are news I just close my eyes
- #318,651
- Edited 12:13pm Jul 12, 2012 10:15am | Edited 12:13pm
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 5,392 Posts
ex member
- #318,652
- Jul 12, 2012 10:52am Jul 12, 2012 10:52am
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2010 | 2,739 Posts
I say UCAD will drop to 0.98 area as per daily chart and past experience with this kind of charts.
1.0229 is the very best short entry for me as it is the 50% fibo(50% fibo is not an important level in fibo but more a reversal level for traders)
a SL just above 1.0293 would do just fine and this to be on the safe side as it could be placed just above 1.0262 as top kumo on H4
so my entries will be on this one buy around 1.0155 area TP 1.0250 or buy @ 1.0055-47 TP 1.0250 or sell from 1.0250 TP 1.0055 and below to the 0.9958 first and 0.9806...
- #318,653
- Jul 12, 2012 11:24am Jul 12, 2012 11:24am
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2010 | 2,739 Posts
and now the charts for GU I mentioned yesterday
actually one chart a daily one
50% fibo on 1.3519-1.7033 comes in @ 1.5270 area 76-78
that is a very good buy point. a SL 1.5150 as next S comes in @ 1.5171 and TP 1.5620 and from that point to be trailed up to 1.5722 and more.
so we either go up now before the 50% line as it is not a rule it must touch it and as I said today if we close today above 1.5404 we go higher to 1.5484 first.
or we go to that point which is the line in the sand.
I'll take the chance.
I think it is a good RR on this one
the only thing that screws it on a monthly chart is that we have a candle formation...weird.
We have june bullish and july bearish so far.if we don't bounce by the end of the month and end it at 1.5404-07 we're kind of heading lower
just look at the circled examples.one big bull month followed by this kind of formation opened at same level(3 candles at same one) and the next candle was in the direction of the first one...in our case now it should be bear but i'm no candle reader I'm afraid...
some help guys ?
actually one chart a daily one
50% fibo on 1.3519-1.7033 comes in @ 1.5270 area 76-78
that is a very good buy point. a SL 1.5150 as next S comes in @ 1.5171 and TP 1.5620 and from that point to be trailed up to 1.5722 and more.
so we either go up now before the 50% line as it is not a rule it must touch it and as I said today if we close today above 1.5404 we go higher to 1.5484 first.
or we go to that point which is the line in the sand.
I'll take the chance.
I think it is a good RR on this one
the only thing that screws it on a monthly chart is that we have a candle formation...weird.
We have june bullish and july bearish so far.if we don't bounce by the end of the month and end it at 1.5404-07 we're kind of heading lower
just look at the circled examples.one big bull month followed by this kind of formation opened at same level(3 candles at same one) and the next candle was in the direction of the first one...in our case now it should be bear but i'm no candle reader I'm afraid...
some help guys ?
- #318,654
- Jul 12, 2012 12:04pm Jul 12, 2012 12:04pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2010 | 2,739 Posts
1.0229 is the very best short entry for me as it is the 50% fibo(50% fibo is not an important level in fibo but more a reversal level for traders)
a SL just above 1.0293 would do just fine and this to be on the safe side as it could be placed just above 1.0262 as top kumo on H4
so my entries will be on this one buy around 1.0155 area TP 1.0250 or buy @ 1.0055-47 TP 1.0250 or sell from 1.0250 TP 1.0055 and below to the 0.9958 first and 0.9806...
if any jumped on UCAD make sure you keep an eye on 1.0171-77 as that one is a S level.
if that one fails we go 1.0122 but if it holds then we can buy there.
I'll close 1/3 of mine now.opened it @ 1.0237
50 pips profit on this one so far
- #318,655
- Jul 12, 2012 12:13pm Jul 12, 2012 12:13pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2010 | 2,739 Posts
and 112 pips for today,0.5% on the balance I'm out of here till monday.tmr I'm going to play tennis and won't be able to push any buttons...anyway Fridays are shitty days to trade.
If all goes well tmr it should go up just coz I opened a sell scalp @ 1.5430 and Friday always but alllwaaays goes against my trades....I feel like Balotelli ''why is it always happening to me''
If all goes well tmr it should go up just coz I opened a sell scalp @ 1.5430 and Friday always but alllwaaays goes against my trades....I feel like Balotelli ''why is it always happening to me''
- #318,656
- Jul 12, 2012 12:19pm Jul 12, 2012 12:19pm
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 5,392 Posts
ex member
- #318,657
- Jul 12, 2012 12:30pm Jul 12, 2012 12:30pm
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 5,392 Posts
The answer is very easy - trade what you see not what you think - since 2008 we are 'thru the looking glass' black is white and white is black and/or vice versa - we are not smart enough to work out thye fundies and we are in good company.
G/L
G/L
can anyone explain me something?
NFP was crap and it ment risk off as USa eco is crap and cannot help out Europe
Unemployed was good and it ment again risk off as it would normal be as US eco is stronger so USD stronger than EUR
....soo..why for some good news in USA we have risk off and for some bad news we have again risk off.
so last week there were 16k people less hired previous month but the claims dropped....good one
this only proves there are no fundies
ex member
- #318,658
- Jul 12, 2012 12:37pm Jul 12, 2012 12:37pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2010 | 2,739 Posts
The answer is very easy - trade what you see not what you think - since 2008 we are 'thru the looking glass' black is white and white is black and/or vice versa - we are not smart enough to work out thye fundies and we are in good company.
G/L
the best answer
- #318,659
- Jul 12, 2012 12:39pm Jul 12, 2012 12:39pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Feb 2010 | 2,739 Posts
I'm in on UCAD buy @ 1.0178 TP 1.0213-1.0220 SL 1.0166
I can loose 12 pips to make a round 100 for the day but if I am lucky I get 35 more on the up moove
I can loose 12 pips to make a round 100 for the day but if I am lucky I get 35 more on the up moove
- #318,660
- Jul 12, 2012 12:49pm Jul 12, 2012 12:49pm
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 5,392 Posts
ex member