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EUR/CHF

  • #8,521
  • Jul 10, 2012 2:48pm Jul 10, 2012 2:48pm
Quoting tim10167
Linda Yueh‏@lindayueh
#Denmark central bank's -0.2% deposit rate still attracted 147bn kroner ($24bn) in deposits yesterday


when swiss introduce theirs, we need to RUN during the spike

unless swiss introduce something more meaningful, (more than just negative rates), otherwise RUN
When?
Maybe they will go more than -0.2%
  • #8,522
  • Jul 10, 2012 5:27pm Jul 10, 2012 5:27pm
swap in FxPro was negative, so I opened an account in exness who paid $ 2.70 usd for each standard lot, now down to $ 1.90 usd for each standard lot. anyone know any broker that has the highest swap?
  • #8,523
  • Jul 10, 2012 7:37pm Jul 10, 2012 7:37pm
Quoting brinks
When?
Maybe they will go more than -0.2%
even a bit more than -0.2 probably wont have an affect except a spike, hope swiss will do more...
  • #8,524
  • Jul 10, 2012 7:40pm Jul 10, 2012 7:40pm
Quoting Edson
swap in FxPro was negative, so I opened an account in exness who paid $ 2.70 usd for each standard lot, now down to $ 1.90 usd for each standard lot. anyone know any broker that has the highest swap?
I don't know which is the broker with highest swap right now, I like FXCM despite the spikes, but I would like to warn you that Exness is a very problematic broker. Not only is extremely spikey (up to 40 pips spread during the last trading hour of the week). And you can then complain to them but they will answer you but ignore your requests.

They are located in Russia and they will do what they want. If they believe that it's convenient not to pay you (they will do it if someday EURCHF appreciates because they don't hedge client positions) they won't pay you.

It's a good broker for trading EURUSD, XAUUSD, etc, if you close an account where you have profits and open a new account. But if you are consistently a good trader they will provoke your ruin

If you want swaps the best option is trading futures, but if you want scalping or long term speculation, I would not trust in Exness, but in "reliable" and regulated brokers. I won't do it anymore. Russia and institutional credibility is an oxymoron.
  • #8,525
  • Jul 10, 2012 11:00pm Jul 10, 2012 11:00pm
Let's discuss this: what is the effect of negative interest rate on real estate market, and in addition what will be the effect on those who owe the banks on mortgages? For sure these are the concerns of the SNB as well.
  • #8,526
  • Jul 11, 2012 1:09am Jul 11, 2012 1:09am
Quoting holmes
Let's discuss this: what is the effect of negative interest rate on real estate market, and in addition what will be the effect on those who owe the banks on mortgages? For sure these are the concerns of the SNB as well.
Can they not just impose negative rates on inflows and foreign accounts so it doesn't affect the domestic Swiss ?
  • #8,527
  • Jul 11, 2012 1:32am Jul 11, 2012 1:32am
Quoting brinks
Can they not just impose negative rates on inflows and foreign accounts so it doesn't affect the domestic Swiss ?
Sure it does effect domestic Swiss.
There is a bubble in housing market for sure, but if the market collapses suddenly the same thing that happened in Spain will happen for Swiss banks because of high level of mortgages on the other hand if people come to losing jobs or lower income as a matter of recession which is probable if Europe situation worsens again the same thing happens and people won't pay their mortgages back and there will be the collapse.
The snb s not afraid of inflation since we see the figures of CPI/PPI, but although deflation could be seen there however the housing market is heating which is really alarming, but what does make that rising price in real estate market? 2 reasons: 1- foreign investment 2- high level of mortgages. The snb has tried to limit the second one by tightening the rules for mortgages but not really successful since 90 percent of banks income is from that. Raising the peg could have been a solution for raising people income and stemming economy but now with too much of reserve seems unbelievable. Negative interest rate could be helpful but just a temporary solution and it will work only if Europe as the biggest partner improves economy. The peg will hold for sure but buying unlimited Euro is just a word and it can't continue this way. There s a predicament for the SNB and they need to decide sooner since the decision will be made sooner or later whereas the delay won't be cheap there.
  • #8,528
  • Jul 11, 2012 2:49am Jul 11, 2012 2:49am
Quoting holmes
Sure it does effect domestic Swiss.
There is a bubble in housing market for sure, but if the market collapses suddenly the same thing that happened in Spain will happen for Swiss banks because of high level of mortgages on the other hand if people come to losing jobs or lower income as a matter of recession which is probable if Europe situation worsens again the same thing happens and people won't pay their mortgages back and there will be the collapse.
The snb s not afraid of inflation since we see the figures of CPI/PPI, but although deflation...
where is the connection between negative interest rates / capital control and bursting housing bubble?

I'm not sure, if you can compare the swiss situation with the one in spain. Switzerland is by far more "developed" and independent.

http://de.statista.com/statistik/dat...tum-in-europa/

And Switzerland is even lower than germany...

have a nice day
  • #8,529
  • Jul 11, 2012 10:56am Jul 11, 2012 10:56am
Quoting Edson
swap in FxPro was negative, so I opened an account in exness who paid $ 2.70 usd for each standard lot, now down to $ 1.90 usd for each standard lot. anyone know any broker that has the highest swap?
Exness has the worst spikes ever !
Forget the good +ve swap. When the spikes go down to 1.1975 or so, I lost all my money. When I asked them, they say they do STP thru the banks etc etc. But excuses only.

I put in money again the second time, but later withdrew all again when it get spikey again. Their response on withdrawal is amazingly fast.

But my advice, don't trade EURCHF at Exness due to the terrible spikes. They only go on stop hunting & when you try to buy limit in these spikes, you don't get any.

I trade with AVAFx. They pay EUR1.53 ($1.86) per lot swap. Good broker with no spikes at all! Only thing is 4 pip spread.
Hotforex has much smaller swap.
  • #8,530
  • Jul 11, 2012 12:09pm Jul 11, 2012 12:09pm
How many people are waiting for a 30-70 pip spike on this pair so they can get the hell out of it?

I'am for one
  • #8,531
  • Jul 11, 2012 12:23pm Jul 11, 2012 12:23pm
Quoting brinks
How many people are waiting for a 30-70 pip spike on this pair so they can get the hell out of it?

I'am for one
Spikes are nice to cut position, but my target is a raise of the peg.
SO if it spikes (and there will surely be new spikes) up to 1,2030 and above I sell a portion to probably buy back under 1,2010.

btw. Bought some more today at the low 1,20088 (entry order was 1,2009 but my broker filled me under it) ;- )
  • #8,532
  • Jul 11, 2012 12:26pm Jul 11, 2012 12:26pm
Quoting Napoleon180
Spikes are nice to cut position, but my target is a raise of the peg.
SO if it spikes (and there will surely be new spikes) up to 1,2030 and above I sell a portion to probably buy back under 1,2010.

btw. Bought some more today at the low 1,20088 (entry order was 1,2009 but my broker filled me under it) ;- )
You reckon they will definately raise the floor then?
I can't see it myself.
  • #8,533
  • Jul 11, 2012 12:55pm Jul 11, 2012 12:55pm
Quoting brinks
You reckon they will definately raise the floor then?
I can't see it myself.
Yes, but patience is the key here.
I think the point of time to raise peg depends on the one hand on general euro-crisis situation and eur/usd...
on the other hand: in med term swiss economy needs a higher peg (in my opinion)...but as long the pressure isn't that hard on SNB they only hold 1.20. If swiss economical situation gets more worse SNB will be forced to act faster.
Cancel the peg would be suicide, so I don't expect a break of 1.20 - brilliant risk/reward rate on long positions...

Wish all you guys luck with it =)
  • #8,534
  • Jul 11, 2012 5:46pm Jul 11, 2012 5:46pm
hah! It closed below 1.20
  • #8,535
  • Jul 11, 2012 8:42pm Jul 11, 2012 8:42pm
Quoting mindscream
hah! It closed below 1.20
It definitely didn't close below 1.20...your broker must have been stop hunting
  • #8,536
  • Jul 12, 2012 1:58am Jul 12, 2012 1:58am
Quoting brinks
You reckon they will definately raise the floor then?
I can't see it myself.
you might has well forget this pair and dont tie your money up, use your money on something that moves, we have all given up.
  • #8,537
  • Jul 12, 2012 2:00am Jul 12, 2012 2:00am
Quoting tonynulty
you might has well forget this pair and dont tie your money up, use your money on something that moves, we have all given up.
I'm waiting for a 30 pip spike then I'm out.
I have a bit of margin tied up but still trade other pairs.
  • #8,538
  • Jul 12, 2012 5:03am Jul 12, 2012 5:03am
We show that in countries that experienced strong growth in house
prices, interest rates have been kept low relative to Taylor-implied rates. We show that the relationship between low interest rates and housing bubbles are strongest for those countries in which the observed rate was lower than the rate implied by the Taylor-rule since the introduction of the single policy rate. Our estimations provide evidence suggesting that if interest rates are set at similar levels to those implied by the Taylor rule, deviations of house prices from their fundamental value can be reduced. We therefore argue that in order to lean against house price fluctuations it is not necessary to consider house prices directly in monetary policy decisions. If a heterogenous economic development within a currency area makes it impossible to set a single optimal policy rate, alternative counter cyclical measures have to be considered. (SNB paper)
  • #8,539
  • Jul 12, 2012 5:23am Jul 12, 2012 5:23am
Some forecasters still saying eur/chf rate at 1.22 by the end of 2012 and 1.30 by the end of 2013.
  • #8,540
  • Jul 12, 2012 5:30am Jul 12, 2012 5:30am
Quoting brinks
Some forecasters still saying eur/chf rate at 1.22 by the end of 2012 and 1.30 by the end of 2013.
If EURO still is in existence by then.
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