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EUR/CHF

  • #8,501
  • Jul 8, 2012 8:25am Jul 8, 2012 8:25am
Quoting cipid2012
I think soon we will see some decisions from SNB, following of course by some action. Even in this moment, many are seeing EUR/CHF at 1.22 by the end of this year...remains 5 months and a half to watch and see.
I think 5 months is a long wait. Come 15 Sep, the next monetary policy meeting, something will crop up. It will be exactly 1 year of the 1.20 peg.

Zero interest rates in CH has helped housing growth a lot. Cannot imagine what negative rates will do. The bubble will expand rapidly & may burst.
  • #8,502
  • Jul 8, 2012 9:57am Jul 8, 2012 9:57am
If they possibly will rise up the peg, they will do it few weeks before next official monetary meeting I think. There they can say then that everything is fine and under control...
It also may depend on the general euro-crisis situation and eur/usd till september.
  • #8,503
  • Jul 8, 2012 12:10pm Jul 8, 2012 12:10pm
Quoting Napoleon180
If they possibly will rise up the peg, they will do it few weeks before next official monetary meeting I think. There they can say then that everything is fine and under control...
It also may depend on the general euro-crisis situation and eur/usd till september.
I don't see any chance of them raising the floor
  • #8,504
  • Jul 8, 2012 3:26pm Jul 8, 2012 3:26pm
Saxo bank
bid:1,2012
ask:1,2015
  • #8,505
  • Jul 8, 2012 4:04pm Jul 8, 2012 4:04pm
Last year moving the peg cost the SNB about 70B, and the peg moved for 1000 pips while EURO fell for about nothing n the last month but the SNB has claimed to have added about 60B in reserve, and it doesn't seem to be for defending the peg since as you know the SNB has bought and sold EURO both at the same time for the last several months, therefor I believe that something is not right and the peg of 1.2 and defending s just a measure for printing more CHF and the SNB feels happy about it.
  • #8,506
  • Jul 9, 2012 4:10am Jul 9, 2012 4:10am
Last week "only" 6bln franc been printed, in 2 weeks pace decreased from 16bln to 6bln.maybe we reach 0 bln...or minus
  • #8,507
  • Jul 9, 2012 4:42am Jul 9, 2012 4:42am
Quoting pipxster
Last week "only" 6bln franc been printed, in 2 weeks pace decreased from 16bln to 6bln.maybe we reach 0 bln...or minus
I think last week SNB had to print much more due to EUR weakness... it is not going to end in a good way the "peg"
  • #8,508
  • Jul 9, 2012 8:40am Jul 9, 2012 8:40am
Quoting ForeXcasts
I think last week SNB had to print much more due to EUR weakness... it is not going to end in a good way the "peg"
Nope, it was 6bln. Check snb weekly report released today.
  • #8,509
  • Jul 9, 2012 1:16pm Jul 9, 2012 1:16pm
UBS says EUR/CHF peg not going away
Written by Adam Button
July 9, 2012 at 14:54 GMT
A UBS FX managing director makes the case for why the SNB will keep its grip on the franc in the FT.
In May its foreign currency reserves jumped by SFr66bn alone. But this is still “only” 60 per cent of Swiss gross domestic product. Other small, wealthy open economies such as Singapore, Qatar and Abu Dhabi are estimated to have foreign exchange reserves two to three times the size of their economies. Thus the SNB’s balance sheet so far has not become extreme.
His argument sounds contrived to me. And I have to believe that railing against the peg or saying it will fail is a career-limiting move at UBS or Credit Suisse.
There is chatter today about the SNB selling euros to buy dollars and pounds.
How confident are you about the EUR/CHF peg? My confidence in it is near an all-time low.
  • #8,510
  • Jul 9, 2012 3:59pm Jul 9, 2012 3:59pm
fkin facken.. lets do spike up to my TP and ill leave this pair alone

Quoting brinks
UBS says EUR/CHF peg not going away
Written by Adam Button
July 9, 2012 at 14:54 GMT
A UBS FX managing director makes the case for why the SNB will keep its grip on the franc in the FT.
In May its foreign currency reserves jumped by SFr66bn alone. But this is still “only” 60 per cent of Swiss gross domestic product. Other small, wealthy open economies such as Singapore, Qatar and Abu Dhabi are estimated to have foreign exchange reserves two to three times the size of their economies. Thus the SNB’s balance sheet so far has not become extreme.
His...
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #8,511
  • Jul 9, 2012 8:21pm Jul 9, 2012 8:21pm
Quoting brinks
UBS says EUR/CHF peg not going away
Written by Adam Button
July 9, 2012 at 14:54 GMT
A UBS FX managing director makes the case for why the SNB will keep its grip on the franc in the FT.
In May its foreign currency reserves jumped by SFr66bn alone. But this is still “only” 60 per cent of Swiss gross domestic product. Other small, wealthy open economies such as Singapore, Qatar and Abu Dhabi are estimated to have foreign exchange reserves two to three times the size of their economies. Thus the SNB’s balance sheet so far has not become extreme.
His...
Swiss banks are ok with SNB buy unlimited EUR or let the peg break, they are not ok with negative rate or capital control because it will hurt there business. So, always becareful of what they say.
  • #8,512
  • Jul 10, 2012 4:08am Jul 10, 2012 4:08am
If the SNB comes to the result that capital control will weaken CHF, they will do that, but let's ask here that how long and how much negative interest rate do you think will weaken CHF?
  • #8,513
  • Jul 10, 2012 6:47am Jul 10, 2012 6:47am
SNB can try a formula applying only -ve rates to foreigners (non-Swiss) funds coming in. This is the same as a tax imposed for funds inflow.

Rate, say try -0.25% first, then -0.5%, but not more than -1%. But this may take a long time to work, say 2-3mths before we see any effect. There are still ordinary people (savers) out there who think when they should not be charged to put money in the bank, but should get some interest instead. So the psychology of negative rates will have a huge impact, although it is just a 25bps down, below zero. Reduce 25bps from 1% to 0.75% & ordinary people saving their money in the bank will not notice, but reduce 25bps from 0% to -0.25% and they will react!

So Jordan, go ahead quickly to cut interest rates to -0.25%
  • #8,514
  • Jul 10, 2012 6:56am Jul 10, 2012 6:56am
Quoting alaneth
SNB can try a formula applying only -ve rates to foreigners (non-Swiss) funds coming in. This is the same as a tax imposed for funds inflow.

Rate, say try -0.25% first, then -0.5%, but not more than -1%. But this may take a long time to work, say 2-3mths before we see any effect. There are still ordinary people (savers) out there who think when they should not be charged to put money in the bank, but should get some interest instead. So the psychology of negative rates will have a huge impact, although it is just a 25bps down, below zero. Reduce...
As I have said before I think Jordan is to safe and conservative to act quickly
  • #8,515
  • Jul 10, 2012 6:58am Jul 10, 2012 6:58am
As I remember one month ago there was speculation or some news that SNB will introduce negative interest rate and pair exploaded for 70 pips even though it was only rumor... So I believe if they announce this pair should go temporarily up...
  • #8,516
  • Jul 10, 2012 7:12am Jul 10, 2012 7:12am
Quoting brinks
As I have said before I think Jordan is to safe and conservative to act quickly
Yes, Jordan is playing safe..... His printing press is well oiled-up to run 24hrs.

Come on Jordan, think of the environment, stop wasting paper, stop cutting down more trees, don't print so much CHFs.

Just go & cut your rates to negative. We can't wait.
  • #8,517
  • Jul 10, 2012 7:39am Jul 10, 2012 7:39am
They dont print chf on paper
The problem will be when they start to print and money goes to the swiss economy(= high inflation).If you want to know more about how a central bank make money read macroeconomic book.

Quoting alaneth
Yes, Jordan is playing safe..... His printing press is well oiled-up to run 24hrs.

Come on Jordan, think of the environment, stop wasting paper, stop cutting down more trees, don't print so much CHFs.

Just go & cut your rates to negative. We can't wait.
  • #8,518
  • Jul 10, 2012 10:15am Jul 10, 2012 10:15am
Quoting Fxworld
They dont print chf on paper
The problem will be when they start to print and money goes to the swiss economy(= high inflation).If you want to know more about how a central bank make money read macroeconomic book.
aha

no one short Swiss franc and long Brazilian rainforest?

As long as these "printed" swiss francs are not running into swiss markets nothing will happen. Or does anyone think that someone who is CHF long in New York, London or Singapur will invest his Swiss Francs into washing powder or Chewing gums in order to heat on domestic inflation in CH? I don't think so.

Someone could please explain me, how these by SNB sold Swiss Francs should return into the economic cycle? Maybe CHF holders buy CHF-denominated Bonds, Stocks and Real-estate, but further?

I assume that the sold CHF are parked till EUR-Problems get solved, and later on, they will 1:1 be changed back into whatever currency with almost no impact for swiss inflation.
  • #8,519
  • Jul 10, 2012 10:23am Jul 10, 2012 10:23am
i think today Switzerland bought another serious part of EURO-Zone...
  • #8,520
  • Jul 10, 2012 2:45pm Jul 10, 2012 2:45pm
Linda Yueh‏@lindayueh
#Denmark central bank's -0.2% deposit rate still attracted 147bn kroner ($24bn) in deposits yesterday


when swiss introduce theirs, we need to RUN during the spike

unless swiss introduce something more meaningful, (more than just negative rates), otherwise RUN
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