EurAnalysis

From one of the better analyst out there.

congratulation


Tommorrow i am long climbing on this hill and will think about your trades up there.

Congretulation again

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the increase/decrease in non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate for June 2012 on Friday, July 6th.

Stocks plunged on the news. Why? The BLS reported that non-farm payrolls increased by 80,000 new jobs in June. Isn't that good? Well first of all, it is a false figure. The true figure is there was a net loss of 44,000 jobs in June. The BLS decided in their infinite wisdom that they think, they guess, they pretended that new businesses that started up in June created 126,000 new jobs. They have no idea what new businesses started, nor did they count new jobs in these phantom new businesses. This 126,000 phony figure was added to the loss of 44,000 jobs to fudge a positive number for the release of the June jobs report. This phony figure is called the CESBD adjustment, or the Birth/Death adjustment. Birth/Death refers to businesses, not people.

The truth is the economy lost 44,000 jobs in June. This is abysmal. This is recession. This is an indictment of government fiscal policy, of Fed monetary policy, of tax policy and regulation of businesses. We need a true increase of 150,000 new jobs each month just to break even with population growth, and need millions more to put displaced workers back in a job.


The truth is, the economy is falling off a cliff, housing transactions are essentially non-existent, jobs are declining, growth is shrinking. There is a necessity at this time for the Fed to try to stimulate the economy with a new program, be it QE3, or something similar that will get billions of newly printed dollars distributed into the economy. The Fed has tried this twice before and it failed because the distribution of printed dollars was not wide enough, instead it went primarily to money center investment banks in Manhattan . It did not trickle down to households, to consumers, to small businesses, to Main Street . It did create massive inflation of commodities and precious metals and it will again. Once the next round of Fed stimulus is announced, and that could happen within six weeks, precious metals will skyrocket. This latest coming round of stimulus will have a diminished return and will not fix the economy. By 2013, we will be headed fast into a deep recession, and an eventual depression.

Nigel Farage - Europe Is Unraveling & Headed For Collapse





Today MEP (Member European Parliament) Nigel Farage gave King World News an extraordinary interview. Farage told KWN, “As we speak we’re doing this interview live, the Spanish 10-Year bonds are trading back over 7% again. Nothing has been solved.” Farage also said, “But the other point that I was making this week was that this bailout fund, this European Stability Mechanism, which is supposed to have firepower of up to 700 billion euros, it doesn’t actually exist. It’s imaginary.” Farage also discussed gold, but first, here is what he had to say about what is happening in Europe: “We had this summit two weeks ago. The usual sort of thing, all sorts of horse trading going on right into the early hours of the morning. Then at about 4:30 in the morning an announcement gets made, there’s been a breakthrough, well, of course they always say that don’t they?”




http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...peimage_22.png

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne..._Collapse.html




The text above was just a small portion of what Farage had to say in this extremely timely and important interview. He tells KWN listeners globally what to expect next in this ongoing crisis and how it should impact markets. The KWN interview with MEP Nigel Farage is available now and you can listen to it by CLICKING HERE.



2012 by King World News. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. However, linking directly to the blog page is permitted and encouraged.

hi PT,good article.how do we explain the usd/yen price action?last 10 to 15 yrs yen is gaining strenth against usd but at the same time its becoming weaker against aud,is that due to money getting out of usd and moving into yen and then from their its moving onto aud.

Euro bulls were tested early this week investor starting with GDP warnings out of Spain and France, with Spain warning the market that Q2 GDP results would be worse than -0.3%, and France cutting its 2012 and 2013 GDP targets, but the real shocker came in the comments from Finland and Netherlands that they ”are planning to block ESM in secondary markets”, which brought uncertainty back to the market, and as if that’s not enough, Germany reinterated that:

“EU Council did not create a new instrument to save banks directly; wrong to say that there will not be conditionality on aid.”

Risk aversion picked up more momentum as the first sub-50 reading in the US ISM manufacturing series since 2009 was released on Monday. With the market packing up for the mid week holiday in the U.S., overall sentiment remained risk adverse and most major pairs were trading in a tight range bracing for Thursday’s BOE Interest Rate Decision and the all important ECB Press Conference. The drama is far from over as The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) surprised markets just seconds before the anticipated APT increase from the BOE, by announcing an unscheduled cutting in its 1-year lending and deposit rates with a 25bp cut to deposit rate and 31bp cut to lending rate, taking the benchmark levels to 3.00% and 6.00% respectively, effective July 6th. This is considered as an increasingly aggressive move from PBoC which could be an official acknowlegment that China’s economic situation is worse than we know… Of course, this surprise rate cut out of China pretty much overshadowed BOE’s announcement of increasing its APT to £375B, as risk appetite returned briefly just before the ECB Rate Decision.

As the market awaits ECB’s Rate Decision, pre-release sentiment appeared to be on the side that ECB would deliver another round of stimulative policy at its June meeting to compliment the EU summit, however market was deeply disappointed when ECB only went ahead with cutting rates (ECB cut Minimum Bid Rate to a new record low of 0.75% and Deposit Facility rate to 0%) but refraining from offering any new programs , crushing risk assets, the euro, and commodities. We saw the steepest decline in the combined currency as EUR/USD plummeted over 150 pips one in a matter of minutes. Many Forex analysts blamed the sell-off that followed the decision on the absence of supportive ECB policy moves (no LTRO, no peripheral bond concessions) rather than the rate cut. Some analysts said that the ECB has simply added back the risk premium that the EU summit had sliced off last week. Others commented that Draghi was merely amplifying his often repeated message to euro zone politicians that governments need to step in and do more to finally extinguish the crisis. Click Here for the blow-by-blow highlights of the ECB Press Conference.

http://www.henryliuforex.com/7004/fo...uly-9-13-2012/

CONCLUSION:

In conclusion, I see that EUR has the risk of dropping to the 1.2000 if one or all of the credit agencies downgrades Spain. With the FOMC Minutes scheduled on Wednesday, I believe EURUSD could remain in downtrend during the early part of the week as the market is reminded again that FOMC only extended ‘Operation Twist’ during last meeting on the basis that the U.S. economy has not deteriorated enough. Thus I believe USD is definitely a BUY, at least for this week. GBP is likely to follow EUR, especially considering high demand for USD, and BOE’ own easing policy… I’m inclined to SELL on rallies. CAD is likely to be a prime target for BUY on dips, although when it comes to USDCAD, we may not see that trend clearly, but the overall direction should still be SELL on rallies… JPY will remain strong due to its safe-haven status, but with BOJ’s potential intervention, we may not see much of JPY strength; therefore I’d probably recommend a slightly longer-term view on JPY pairs and position for potential rebounds on AUDJPY, CADJPY, or even USDJPY. AUD and NZD are likely to remain strong, but facing a stronger USD, some consolidation over recent gains is expected. With China once again cutting its rate, AUDUSD should be well supported, therefore we are looking to BUY on dips or recent support levels (1.0000?). CHF is likely to remain weak against USD as EUR could make new lows this coming week, but I’d warn on CHF sells as market has been dumping CHF sharply and a consolidation is due… All in all I’d recommend to use caution and focus on the main event of the week, the U.S. FOMC Minutes.

Looking ahead this week, here’s the list of tradable news releases… It is a light week (2 releases) compared to last week (12 releases!), and I think the market deserves some quiet time, especially after last week (ECB, BOE, PBoC, and NFP).

1. Wednesday July 11, 2012 – 2:00pm EST – US FOMC Meeting Minutes
2. Wednesday July 11, 2012 – 9:30pm EST – AU Employment Change

http://www.peakprosperity.com/podcas...e-or-die-stage

"It's impossible to have a political solution to a balance sheet problem" says Paul Brodsky, bond market expert and co-founder of QB Asset Management.

The world has simply gotten itself into too much debt. There are creditors that expect to be paid, and debtors that are having an increasingly difficult time making their coupon payments. No amount of political or policy intervention is going to change that reality. (Unless a global "debt jubilee" transpires, which Paul thinks is unlikely).

Looking at the global monetary base, Paul sees it dwarfed by the staggering amount of debts that need to be repaid or serviced. The reckless use of leverage has resulted in a chasm between total credit and the money that can service it.

So how will this debt overhang be resolved?

Central bank money printing -- and lots of it -- thinks Paul.

At this point, the danger posed by the instability of our monetary and fiscal house of cards is so great that trying to time an investment program to when this avalanche of printing will occur is too risky, in Paul's opinion. It's time to shift your remaining capital into hard assets and sit on the sidelines to watch the carnage play out.
On The Imbalance Between Debts and Money Supply

We are seeing -- not only in the US but in Europe and in Asia, as well -- separating bank assets and base money. Base money is comprised of currency in circulation plus bank reserves that are held at central banks -- at the Fed or that is at the ECB, the Bank of Japan, so on and so forth. This is how the global economy rolls, as they say.

Bank assets are loans mostly. And the amounts globally are staggering: something approaching $100 trillion in global bank assets. And in the US we think that is somewhere around $20 trillion held in the US and abroad. And the numbers for the monetary base are much, much lower. Specifically in bank reserves -- that is the amount of reserves that are collateralizing, if you will, all of those $100 trillion in bank assets -- something about $8.5 to $9 trillion dollars. So that gives you a sense of perspective as to how much the global banking system is leverage. We are in a baseless monetary system.

On The Wisdom of Owning Gold & Hard Assets

The point here is you can either monetize debt or you can monetize (sell) assets. Or you revalue an asset on the balance sheet already of the Treasury or the Fed. And obviously that asset, we think, is gold. And that is the monetary asset that they have always reverted in the past. And that is the one we think that currencies, currently baseless currencies will be devalued against.
And so that we think is the mechanism that is ultimately going to play out whether in the marketplace or through some policy administered devaluation. Currencies are going to be devalued and that is where we sit right now. Timing this is impossible. We think the amount it would have to be devalued by, getting back to your original question, has got to be the amount of or something close to the amount of the gap (tens of US$ trillions) between bank assets and bank reserves. So it is a significant number.

And Treasury ministries, being the ultimate issuers of obligors on the hook for currency repayment, we see them as lending the gold to their central banks so that this mechanism, this asset monetization devaluation can take place. And so we think it is the only way out ultimately. And we will see that happen either in the marketplace or through proclamation at some point. And it is really what has to happen.

And so there is no physical limitation on the amount of currency that central banks may manufacture. And so this is a completely viable way to deleverage the system -- by purely destroying the currency that we have. It is debt currency, so we are going to destroy the debt in real terms behind them but not destroy them in nominal terms. That is the net effect of all this.

http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...0120707169455/

Technical Highlights
A few points to be noted in dollar index. Firstly, it's staying above rising 55 days EMA. Secondly, daily MACD is still positive. Thirdly, last week's sharp rally suggests that the medium term up trend from 72.69 is resuming. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and break of 83.54 will confirm this bullish case and target 61.8% projection of 78.60 to 83.54 from 81.18 at 84.23 next.

http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20120707w1.gif

Snippet:

IMF managing director Lagarde said that the organization will cut global growth forecast this year and economic outlook will be "tilted to the downside". Though, Lagarde qualified the statement and said that "tilted means there's not an enormous variation" even though it's negative. In April, IMF projected 2012 global growth to be at 3.5%while 2013 growth was projected to be 4.1%. That was an upward revision from January's estimate of 3.3% in 2012 and 3.9% in 2013. But it's believed that recent development and economic data has prompted IMF to lower the forecast again. Lagarde also pointed out that "if there was a further deterioration arising out of the euro zone, it might have an unwelcome currency effect on the yen, which would be used as a safe haven and therefore would become further overvalued". The rate cut from ECB and PBoC as well as BoE's asset purchase program expansion provided no support to market confidence. But rather, they're seen as sign of deep worry from central bankers.

ECB cut the benchmark interest rates to historical low of 0.75%. And more importantly, the deposit rate is now at 0.00%. Comments from ECB President Draghi was overwhelmingly cautious as his noted that "downside risks to the euro-area economic outlook have materialized" and the bank doesn't see "risks for inflationary expectations". Draghi warned that Q2 indicators pointed to a "renewed weakening of economic growth and heightened uncertainty". With deposit rates at zero, markets are already speculating that there could be another round of LTRO in September, and ECB could eventually adopt quantitative easing.

Also, a important development was that ECB said nothing, provided no hint on supporting the peripherals. There was no talk about using ESM to buy Spanish and Italian bonds. In addition, Finland and the Netherlands have openly expressed that they will block using ESM to buy government bonds in the secondary market. The stance was further reiterated by Finnish Finance Minister that the country "will not hang itself to the euro at any cost and we are prepared for all scenarios." She further added that "collective responsibility for other countries' debt, economics and risks; this is not what we should be prepared for". The EU summit was not last episode of the drama. This week's EcoFin meeting will be another chapter.

BoE left the benchmark interest rates unchanged at 0.5% today but expanded the asset purchase program by another GBP 50b to GBP 573b. BoE noted that business indicators showed "continuation of weakness" in the economy in near term, "both at home and abroad". Also, the central bank remained concerned with the " indebtedness and competitiveness of several euro-area economies" which weighed down on confidence. Falling commodity prices should moderate external price pressure further from 2.8% yoy in May.

OK guys... hope everyone is having a great weekend. Ive done my homework and here is the outlook .



DOW – down 47.15 points to close at 12,896.67
Oil – down $0.44 to close at $87.22 – next level of support is $84.94
Gold – down $12.40 to close at $1,609.40 – Next level of support at $1,600
Dollar index 82.805 – 52 week range is Low: 73.421 – High: 83.542


NFP showed mere 80k job growth in June, comparing to expectation of 90k. The total figure for Q2 was 225k only, just at 1/3 of Q1′s 677k.


ECB cut the benchmark interest rates to historical low of 0.75%. And more importantly, the deposit rate is now at 0.00%. Comments from ECB President Draghi was overwhelmingly cautious as his noted that “downside risks to the euro-area economic outlook have materialized” and the bank doesn’t see “risks for inflationary expectations”. He continues to be heavily bearish on the EZ's situation.



The week after the end of the EU summit the euro is 2.5% lower against the dollar and 2% lower on a trade-weighted basis. Added to that Spanish and Italian bond yields have risen sharply since the start of the week and at the time of writing Spanish yields were flirting with the 7% level that is considered bailout worthy.


BoE left the benchmark interest rates unchanged at 0.5% but expanded the asset purchase program by another GBP 50b to GBP 573b.


The quarterly Tankan survey from Japan showed that large companies in the countries were less pessimistic about the conditions


The RBA unexpectedly left the cash rate unchanged at 3.5% in June, following two consecutive cuts totaling 75 bps in May and June.


The Bank of Japan meets on Friday, it is not expected to adjust its interest rate, which is already only 0.1%; however the Bank may choose to boost stimulus after the action taken by the ECB, BOE and PBOC.




Everyone enjoy thier evening and Ill be back Sunday withmy trade plan for the week

This articles take on currency is nonsense. Currencies worldwide are underwritten by the surplus value extracted from labour and high energy assets such as oil. It is this human and commodity based surplus that adds the value difference that workers and capitalists then apportion and use accordingly. So to suggest that printing will devalue a currency as long as there is the capacity for further surplus to be added to this cycle (why do you think Wall Street so loves China despite all the misgivings articulated in some quarters) is to totally fail to understand this relationship. Currency only risks being devalued where a disparity arises between the surplus being extracted and the currency being printed which purports to represent that pool. The Depression was a good example where the demands of capitalists for their portion of that value could not be met due to increasing numbers of workers being consigned to unemployment and a shrinking pool of this surplus value.

The current situation is unique as the rapid development of the large pools of labour surplus in Asia coupled with the easy access to oil effectively firewalls the Western debt bubble in essence creating a space for the eventual neutralisation of the value disparity that exists (by the use of easing mechanisms).

This is matched by the increasing application of Western labour to those services necessary to amplify this worker surplus value with the use of tertiary instruments.

So any thoughts that the banking debacle is about to kill this process anytime soon are pie in the sky. In fact. not only will these services expand into Asia, they will continue to break new ground in the West as Western labour is increasingly applied to capitalism's services arm

Europe will emerge from this current crisis leaner and more austere (austerity not necessarily implying the rise of a new Victorian era, but rather an economy that reflects this new capitalist dynamic.)

This is not to say that capitalism is with us for ever as all systems ultimately face the hand of material dialecticism. What this says is that we are far from a terminal systemic crisis. This is more of an adjustment to the new global realities of labour specialisation which is of course having its effects on asset markets such as housing, markets previously dependent on a mixed Western economy.

Further, staggering amounts of debt are a function of infinite growth. Cap debt and you limit growth which in turn affects sentiment and so on and so forth (As would a gold standard do.). Debt is a necessary evil in a system where annual growth is a mantra. Get used to the complexities of global capitalism.

http://www.mises.ca/wp-content/uploa...ey-300x200.jpgThis appeared today at TroyMedia.com
TORONTO, ON, Jul 6, 2012/ Troy Media/ – These days, the casual reader can’t go far without hearing about a lack of money in the world. And no, I am not referring to crippling poverty in third world countries in lieu of the material wonders capitalism has brought the West. I am speaking to the growing number of economists and commentators clamoring over the reluctance by central banks the world round to turn the gauge on their money printers to “high.”

Recently in the Financial Post, applied economics professor Steve Hanke shared his concern over the lack of private money creation in the United States. Hanke reasons that the lack of credit expansion is proving to be the true hurdle of growth for both America and the Eurozone. His solution is to scale back banking regulations to decrease political uncertainty and set the foundation for a boom in lending.

Now there is certainly merit in arguing for the relaxing of banking regulations as they serve as barriers to entry by small-time competitors. By increasing the cost of entry to business through various mandates and requirements, industries become dominated by large firms. This is very much the case in today’s modern financial system presided over by central banks that are given government grants of monopoly over their respective currency supplies.

Back to the core question however, would an increase in private lending really get the “animal spirits” spending again? Historical evidence would suggest as much, despite human action being unpredictable. But should central banks start shoving their favored banks with liquidity en masse?

To answer this question, we must first define what money is and what function it has in a market economy. Money, properly understood, serves as a medium of exchange.

Money is important, but it isn’t wealth. In its predominant paper form, its only function is to facilitate transactions. No increase in the supply of money, no matter how massive, produces consumer goods or services. As famed economic scholar David Hume once theorized, if everyone were to wake up one day to find their wallets magically packed to the brim with newly-printed dollars, it may induce of feeling of immediate euphoria but there would be no increase in their material well-being. As soon as the funds begin to be spent, prices will be pushed upward. Whatever perceptions of being richer that may have been felt would be quickly extinguished.

More importantly, monetary inflation engineered by central banks must set off the business cycle. A century ago, economist Ludwig von Mises developed a groundbreaking theory on how central bank manipulation of interest rates and money supply distorts relative prices and leads to malinvestments in unsustainable lines of production. We have had the misfortune oft witnessing von Mises’ theory at work over the past decade. In the early 2000s as the Federal Reserve, under the leadership of Alan Greenspan, took interest rates to then-historically low levels, this led to a decrease in borrowing costs and mortgage rates. From December 2000 to June 2003, the Fed lowered its federal funds rate (the rate charged to banks to borrow from each other overnight) from 6.5 per cent to 1 per cent. It stayed at 1 per cent till June of 2004. According to economist Joseph Salerno, 30 year mortgage rates would go on to fall from over 7 per cent in 2002 to 5.25 per cent in 2003 while one-year adjustable rate mortgages fell from about 7 per cent in 2000 to 3.74 per cent in 2003.

Housing prices skyrocketed as mortgage standards were relaxed. Bankers and politicians alike rode the wave of optimism till the inevitable collapse as Greenspan gradually raised interest rates to prevent the rising of prices from becoming more widespread. Consumes did their part by using the manipulated value of their homes as collateral to go into debt in order to purchase things like high end electronics, expensive meals, and scenic vacations. When money supply growth slowed, Greenspan’s house of cards built on unrealistic feelings of affluence collapsed as home prices came back down to Earth.

The burst of the housing bubble was just one instance of the boom-bust cycle brought about by government-sanctioned inflationary policy. The evidence is clear that the advent of central banking has been responsible for more severe economic crises than a hard currency system with minimal government oversight. Monopoly and easy-access to a printing press is a combination too enticing for the political class to pass up.

Hanke is correct in pointing out Ben Bernanke has engaged in a sort of orgy of money printing over the past three years, with private money creation lagging behind. But should private lending really begin to take off, it would eventually need to come to an end, less the complete destruction of the currency. Germany knows this outcome too well as Weimar hyperinflation would eventually lead to the rise of Nazism.

In the end, what Hanke and his like-minded peers fail to realize is that monetary contraction is really just the market’s collective reaction to previous inflationary policies. The slowdown in growth isn’t a market failure but an adjustment to the Fed’s previous manipulation. Inflation is always implanted with the seeds of its own destruction.

It is only through the production of goods and services that wealth is ultimately created. If money printing was really the great cure-all peddled by many of today’s prominent economic commentators, then Zimbabwe would have a first world economy by now. Instead, it too succumbed to the hubris of central bankers who believe themselves capable of knowing the proper supply of money used by millions.

James E. Miller holds a BS in public administration with a minor in business from Shippensburg University, PA. He is the Editor in Chief at the Ludwig von Mises Institute of Canada and a current contributor to his hometown newspaper, the Middletown Press and Journal.

www.marketforceanalysis.com
Deflation – Nowhere to be Seen
By Adrian Douglas

There are frequent claims that the U.S. economy has entered a period of "deflation." These claims are totally unfounded and are false. Deflation can only be a persistent state of general price decline. In fact, in examining price trends, the U.S. is experiencing shocking price increases of over 15% per annum. To illustrate this, Figure 1 shows the Continuous Commodities Index, CCI over the past ten years.

Figure 1: Continuous Commodities Index (CCI) 2002-2012

The CCI shows there are periods of high inflation and brief periods of "disinflation". "Disinflation" is a period when the money supply expansion slows but does not contract. An analogy of this is a car that can speed up or slow down but does not stop. When the car accelerates it is analogous to inflation, while the car slowing down is analogous to "disinflation." Conversely, "deflation" would mean that the car stops and reverses. There is absolutely no sign of any reversal in the general trend of inflation.

The CCI is an index of 17 different commodities namely: Cocoa, Coffee ‘C’, Copper, Corn, Cotton, Crude Oil, Gold, Heating Oil, Live Cattle, Live Hogs, www.marketforceanalysis.com

Natural Gas, Orange Juice, Platinum, Silver, Soybeans, Sugar No. 11, and Wheat. The index covers a broad range of industrial raw materials for the production of energy, food, metals, and textiles. The CCI composition remains unchanged since 1995 and so suffers no hedonistic massaging or adjustments unlike the government produced Consumer Price Index, CPI, and Producer Price Index, PPI.
The index is equally weighted so it is the geometric mean of these 17 commodity prices. This means that the price of the CCI cannot spike due to an increase in price of just one or two commodities. For the index to rise 10% all 17 components would need to rise 10% or one component would have to rise 500%. If oil were to rise tomorrow to $400/bbl and all other 16 components did not change in price, the index would only rise by 10%. This means that the CCI is a stable indicator of price trends.

What can be seen from figure 1 is that the CCI has been in a rising trend for ten years as shown by the solid red channel.

The financial crisis has caused a massive increase in money supply coined, "Quantitative Easing." This has led to relatively more money chasing fewer goods and services; a textbook definition of inflation. The U.S. has financed two wars in the past ten years, costing trillions of dollars. Instead of exercising fiscal discipline to pay for their foreign misadventures, money has been printed at alarming rates.

The parallels of the US economy with that of Weimar Germany are eerie. The post-war economy was in ruins. They were saddled with huge debt in the form of war reparation obligation payments. In order to meet the gap between tax receipts and expenditure they printed money. The main concern at the time for the global economy was a fear of deflation. This turned out to be totally misguided. Instead, the monetary destruction was fast. It took only 12 months to transition from mild inflation to high inflation and then a further 16 months to ramp up to total hyperinflationary destruction of the currency.

There has been no true occurrence of "deflation" in the last 77 years. Deflationists point to Japan as an example but it is more accurately defined as "disinflation" rather than deflation because Japan’s money supply has never contracted; its rate of expansion slowed and reached the zero level for a while.

Regarding the U.S., Figure 1 shows the trend in "disinflation" has now started its reversal to inflation and so, a period of high inflation is resuming. It is short periods of "disinflation" that have the media and commentators erroneously claiming deflation. As the period of inflation accelerates, it is an excellent time for investors to add to or commence their long positions in precious metals.
Owning physical allocated gold and silver is the time honored protection of wealth from the destructive ravages of inflation and hyperinflation. The CCI demonstrates unequivocally that inflation is consistently destroying your wealth. www.marketforceanalysis.com

The current dip in the prices of gold and silver provides an excellent opportunity to buy.

Adrian Douglas
Editor of Market Force Analysis
Board Member of GATA
July 7, 2012
www.marketforceanalysis.com

12 THINGS GOLD IS SAYING NOW:

WHEN GOLD SPEAKS....IT PAYS TO LISTEN!

1) I'm the only form of money on earth politicians can neither create nor destroy;

2) I protect my owners from instability in the stock, bond and currency markets;

3) I'm in very short supply today and face unlimited demand worldwide;

4) I offer a safe haven in a world facing debt and deficit self-destruction;

5) I'm called the 'crisis commodity' because I outperform under pressure;

6) I'm an investor's best option of wealth preservation, now and forever;

7) My price is still just about halfway to a new "inflation-adjusted" high;

8) My best advice on wise investing: never buy or sell any asset in a panic;

9) My value grows when the schemes of profiteers and politicians crumble;

10) I proudly serve as the world's de-facto money, from Day One to the Last Day;

11) My price will continue rising despite vain attempts to manipulate free markets;

12) After my last six corrections, my price rose an average of 36% (Next stop: $2,200/oz).

what a strange conclusion,which basically show debt is intitutionalise so completlely that its consider normal for growth.Debt are a fucntion of infinite growth and then immediately ur contradicting urself by saying cap debt and u limit growth, but human are contradictory and logic cut both ways when it comes to human affair.
The point here is which comes first,growth or debt? if one think about it growth comes from natural inclination of human needs and debt is a totallly artificial condition impose on majority from above and exploitative.
Probabaly what u wanted to say is debt is a function of usury[read interest]rather than growth.

anyway thanks for ur views.

http://www.goldmoney.com/gold-resear...gmrefcode=gata

LIBOR fixing implicates government as well

2012-JUL-07

http://www.goldmoney.com/images/thum.../big_ben_2.pngThe LIBOR scandal has been hogging headlines of late, with questions raised again about the extent to which big banks are now a law unto themselves; the focus on Barclays obscures the fact that other banks are likely to be found guilty of the same offence. The practice has been going on seemingly since at least 2005. The scandal has not only attracted fines, but it exposes the banks concerned to customer refunds and civil actions of amounts potentially in multiples of their core capital.

It lends support to the view that banks have lost sight of their responsibilities to their customers. This was the inevitable outcome of London’s “big bang” in the early 1980s, when the banks muscled in on securities-trading and derivative markets. The reason the rot started in London was that the Glass-Steagall Act restricted the ability of commercial banks to mix investment and banking activities in the US, so Wall Street was ready to “move” to London. The Conservative government in the UK took the hint and forced the London Stock Exchange to open up its membership to banks.

Self-regulation for securities was thrown out of the window and replaced by state regulation. Banking continued to be regulated by the Bank of England until Tony Blair’s Labour government passed that function to the Financial Services Authority, which by then was regulating securities and insurance. The justification for state control of financial services is and always was the protection of the public. The reality has been a devil’s pact, with state interests being traded for benefits for the banks. The state has been funded, and the banks have become rich. The idea that this can have been achieved without market manipulation by both parties working together is simply naïve.

Manipulating central banks are actually the worst offenders, usually depressing interest rates hundreds of basis points below where they would otherwise be, and by contrast anything commercial banks do on their own is small beer. The deliberate mispricing of the cost of borrowing is after all necessary to generate demand for money and credit. All interest rate manipulation has winners and losers, and the idea that agents of the state can manipulate rates without having a moral case to answer is no more than a statist point of view.

The importance of the LIBOR problem is it forces people to reflect more on the nature of modern banking: many were already forming the view that it is thoroughly rotten. By all accounts, Barclays, which has now lost key executives, was not the greatest sinner. We are left wondering how many more senior bankers at other banks will be removed from office, and who in their right mind will replace them. The attraction of being an executive director of a large commercial bank has always been about power; the power has now gone and there are other ways of wielding financial muscle out of the limelight.

The likely result of LIBOR-gate is that banking itself is in decline.

Bureaucracy is driving out talent and banks are becoming less profitable.

The British Government, which is dependent on the banking system for funding and underwrites the whole system, will be the ultimate loser.

thank u wulfgar,much appreciated and very helpful

Easy tiger, I don't think anyone is trying to manipulate anything. Take it or leave it when it comes to opinions and information posted here, just don't start fights.

I have gold closed at 1,582.90 - Is it moving on the weekend?

some of my thoughts...


Dollar index

now in a consolidation > if we're in an up long-term trend (since broke up the long-term resistence), must break it up.

we're on the top of that consolidation, might make a short-term range. if so, should not break down it cause would leave a double top on daily.



Gold

in a long-term range, near the bottom.

now broke down 1600, might make a shot-term range with top at 1600 > to return to the long-term support must finally break it. if so, see what happens when we get there.

if we break up 1625 level, we'll go to the top of the big range.



NZD / U

broke down 0,80. might make a range between the levels 0,8070-0,7950 or 0,8000-0,7950.

to return to the long-term support, must finally break 0,7950 and then 0,7840.


U / CAD

broke up 1,0150 confirming that daily sma200 held the price, at least for now.

to return to the long-term resistance, must finally break up 1,020 and then 1,030.