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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #41,661
  • Jul 6, 2012 3:05pm Jul 6, 2012 3:05pm
Yes And Nymex Highlight for secret msg Your not planning some sort of bombing campaign to drive up the price are you
The winner of the rat race is still a rat.
  • #41,662
  • Edited 4:47pm Jul 6, 2012 3:07pm | Edited 4:47pm
Quoting billytt
hope everyone is ok, just some advice to the minnows. This has been another exceptional week and i cannot see how anyone could of lost out, you could of looked at tea leaves, gutted chickens or just stuck to technicals lol and still come out with many pips. i hope you all have a good weekend and next week we'll net many more pips. take care
its easy,u just have to sit in front of a mirror repeating the above sentence in red and u will have ur nirvana.anyway congratulation for grabbing some pips,ur a good trader.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #41,663
  • Jul 6, 2012 3:07pm Jul 6, 2012 3:07pm
Quoting Gofer Pips
Hey TW! Good to hear from ya! I still use THV with fibs, pivots and ma confluence. Since getting in this thread back in August 2011, with contributions of many tarders here, I am now getting more educated using Funnymental analysis as well as technicals.

You are welcome to come in and share anytime!
Take care
Nice to hear from you. Well I focus only on technicals; those fundies are the
  • #41,664
  • Jul 6, 2012 3:09pm Jul 6, 2012 3:09pm
I think Nymex is now part of CME. Thx for help Luc.
Secret: I am just having fun analyzing.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #41,665
  • Jul 6, 2012 3:23pm Jul 6, 2012 3:23pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I think Nymex is now part of CME. Thx for help Luc.
Secret: I am just having fun analyzing.

T
congratulation tom for ur performance.may God bless u with more green pips
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #41,666
  • Jul 6, 2012 3:27pm Jul 6, 2012 3:27pm
Quoting drzakir123
ur not alone.i did manage some pips today and yesterday but not satisfied.i think last month 29th price action was a bit damaging psychologically.basically i am in recovery which will take a bit of time,any way i shouldnt lose the goal of my trading ie to prolong my life as a trader for next couple of year,if i just manage to hang on there money will follow.lets see if i will be successful in holding my account together.
The trick is just to stay humble, thankful and patient

Be thankful for what the market gives us
If it doesn't give us pips sometimes there are greater tragedies in the world.
  • #41,667
  • Jul 6, 2012 3:30pm Jul 6, 2012 3:30pm
Since it is almost weekend, have you seen this? My favourite youtube video.

Inserted Video
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #41,668
  • Jul 6, 2012 3:30pm Jul 6, 2012 3:30pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I think Nymex is now part of CME. Thx for help Luc.
Secret: I am just having fun analyzing.

T
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On H1 and higher TF it is still easy to trade but on lower TF it is manic atm... I used to trade on M5-M15 on it but the PA is just too hectic that getting fills and slippage got me annoyed so I stopped trading it on the lower TF
On D1 it is a dream to trade imho though...
The winner of the rat race is still a rat.
  • #41,669
  • Jul 6, 2012 3:33pm Jul 6, 2012 3:33pm
Quoting Wulfgar
The trick is just to stay humble, thankful and patient

Be thankful for what the market gives us
If it doesn't give us pips sometimes there are greater tragedies in the world.
i totally agree with u.no two opinion about it.thank goodness i am able to grab few more pips (about 30 pips on the longside] thats my last trade for today.close just now bye
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #41,670
  • Jul 6, 2012 3:35pm Jul 6, 2012 3:35pm
Quoting LittleLuca

On H1 and higher TF it is still easy to trade but on lower TF it is manic atm...
Well, I dont plan to trade Oil. I am just exploring the market since it is external factor affecting this pair.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #41,671
  • Jul 6, 2012 3:35pm Jul 6, 2012 3:35pm
good evening from uk, saying this in a friendly way.I am offering advice to people. This week we saw some big swings and i must admit to you, i was not on them all. I still took over 1000 pips but i trade off my plan. Its great to trade fundamentals when they go right with big jumps.Technicals have proven to be right some times but as i keep saying, i trade very simple. i set triggers and then normally sleep or go to the beach and i get so anxious if i actually sit at pc and watch my trades live lol. what i was getting at was,,,, if a person just started to trade this week it would of been like christmas,party time pips galore. some times a person plays a fruit machine and wins straight away and then they are hooked to losing lol. Take care
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #41,672
  • Jul 6, 2012 3:38pm Jul 6, 2012 3:38pm
i just realised, i said over 1000 pips. i compound my trading so the actual pips is less. its like a governmant adjusting the figures lol.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #41,673
  • Jul 6, 2012 4:40pm Jul 6, 2012 4:40pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Well folks I am almost flat. I have taken 85% of the profit off my 1.4647 and 1.3410 shorts and completely closed out everything else.
Now it's time to make a nice juicy withdrawal from my account. Can't wait

Trades closed:

Short @ 1.25444 - Closed @ 1.22776 for +266.8 pips
Short @ 1.25444 - Closed @ 1.22776 for +266.8 pips
Short @ 1.25651 - Closed @ 1.22784 for +286.7 pips
Short @ 1.26671 - Closed @ 1.22798 for +387.3 pips
Short @ 1.27050 - Closed @ 1.22795 for +625.5 pips
Short @ 1.27733 - Closed @ 1.22796 for +493.7 pips
Short @ 1.31559...
Congratulations PT ......
  • #41,674
  • Jul 6, 2012 7:37pm Jul 6, 2012 7:37pm
I am trying to relax and play Civ III, but there is this stupid advisor. Dunno if I should listen to him.

Domestic Advisor: Maybe we should build Wall street...
Tom: Nah, leave it Advisor, those are only trouble.

T
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #41,675
  • Jul 6, 2012 10:10pm Jul 6, 2012 10:10pm
only one week after i finish my study for fianl exam n final sem..then i will be active back in this grup..hehee
Bismillah
  • #41,676
  • Jul 7, 2012 6:24am Jul 7, 2012 6:24am
Quoting PipTrapper

Trades closed:

Short @ 1.46477 - Closed @ 1.22801 for +2367.6 pips

huh! how could ya!!!!!!!?!!!!!! I thought closing it @ .50 or atleast 1.17 .. u broke my heart '=|
  • #41,677
  • Jul 7, 2012 8:12am Jul 7, 2012 8:12am
Quoting rekon67
huh! how could ya!!!!!!!?!!!!!! I thought closing it @ .50 or atleast 1.17 .. u broke my heart '=|
I didn't close it all. Just partial profit. I have only two partial shorts left. 1.4647 and 1.3410
So unbreak your heart
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #41,678
  • Jul 7, 2012 8:15am Jul 7, 2012 8:15am
The 'Carry Trade' a Worry for the Euro

By EVA SZALAY Updated July 6, 2012, 5:08 p.m. ET

The euro could become the currency market's whipping boy in the coming months if investors dump it for currencies linked to higher-yielding assets in emerging markets and elsewhere.

In the past, investors often bought assets in Australian dollars and New Zealand dollars as part of a so-called "carry trade" to capitalize on higher interest rates offered on bonds there. And while many may continue to do so, others are looking at smaller, less-liquid markets like the Hungarian forint, the Polish zloty and the South African rand, all of which saw chunky gains against the euro in the wake of Thursday's decision by the European Central Bank to cut interest rates.

The rate cuts, which pushed rates for cash deposited at the central bank to zero, have boosted the euro's status as a so-called funding currency for these trades. The Japanese yen was long the favorite currency to sell because the country's interest rates have long been much lower than those of other major economies. But the euro-zone debt crisis, now in its third year, and a wobbly global economy has turned the yen a haven, pushing up its value and upending investors' calculations.

"Funding Australian-dollar trades with the yen is a thing of the past," said Thanos Papasavvas, a strategist at Investec Asset Management. "If you want to incorporate 'carry' into your portfolio, you might as well invest into emerging-market currencies with sound fundamentals and the added benefit of the yield differential."

Hungary's 10-year bonds, for example, yield nearly 8%, even as the country struggles to grow, compared to just 3.1% in Australia.

To be sure, investors are still buying the Australian and New Zealand currencies, after several months in which whippy markets meant demand for "carry" trades had abated.

But now the options markets, which traders use to shield themselves from exchange-rate shifts, or even to profit from them, show much lower expectations for big moves ahead. So-called one-month implied volatility contracts for the euro against the dollar dropped to around 10% after the ECB's rate decision July 5, from above 13% before the meeting, with most currency pairings also following suit.

A summit of European leaders at the end of June in which they agreed to a series of measures aimed at helping troubled banks directly, rather than through their governments, also appeared to stabilize markets, although perhaps only fleetingly.

The euro has weakened 6.6% against the Australian dollar since the start of June, reaching its lowest level since the antipodean currency was floated more than 20 years ago. The European currency has also fallen to its lowest post-float level against the New Zealand dollar, shedding 7% in the same period.

Both the Australian and New Zealand economies are growing faster than those of other developed nations. But worries about China's economy could stall the Australian dollar's rise against the euro. The Australian economy relies heavily on exporting commodities to the world's second-largest economy. But in a nod to a slowing domestic economy, the People's Bank of China late Thursday unexpectedly cut interest rates for the second time in less than a month.

While interest rates in Hungary and other emerging markets are higher than those in Australia and New Zealand, the risk is that the exchange rate gyrates more violently in times of market stress.

The bond markets also are much smaller, and it could be more difficult to sell quickly if needed. Central banks could also act to make their markets less attractive to investors. Indeed, when money flooded into the Brazilian real last year, the central bank, worried about the impact that was having on the exchange rate, took some extraordinary steps, including intervening in the currency market to buy dollars, and introducing some limited capital controls.

Moreover, if the global economy slows, central banks in emerging makets are increasingly likely to cut rates as well," said Stephen Jen, a managing partner and founder at SLJ Macro Partners, a London-based hedge fund.

Local politics add another element of risk for the likes of the Hungarian forint and the Romanian leu. The forint has been on a roller-coaster ride all year as the country's government strives to secure a standby loan from international creditors to resolve some of its own financial problems.

High debt levels also pose a risk to emerging European currencies, as funding costs tend to rise when investors get the jitters.

But, to many, markets are looking more stable, making yield-hungry investors more willing to take on riskier bets.

"We saw emerging market currencies strengthen against the euro but they were weaker or broadly stable against the dollar," Morgan Stanley said in a note to clients. "This type of price action is unusual but it's consistent with the use of euro funding."
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #41,679
  • Jul 7, 2012 9:46am Jul 7, 2012 9:46am
Quoting PipTrapper
[b]The 'Carry Trade' a Worry for the Euro

By EVA SZALAY Updated July 6, 2012, 5:08 p.m. ET

[i][color=DarkSlateBlue]The euro could become the currency market's whipping boy in the coming months if investors dump it for currencies linked to higher-yielding assets in emerging markets and elsewhere.

In the past, investors often bought assets in Australian dollars and New Zealand dollars as part of a so-called "carry...
Hello PT, this is a very good thread to read. Well done PT and your thoooussssaaaaands of green pips last Friday .

PT , the summary of the above scenario, from your perspective , where the Euro will be heading . Will it test the support @ 1.1875 (the Low on D1 7.6.'10 , W1 and MN Jun '10) soon (Jun/July/Aug or end 2012 ??? ).
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  • #41,680
  • Jul 7, 2012 3:14pm Jul 7, 2012 3:14pm
Quoting JollyJoker
Bullish Shark on Daily chart of EURAUD.
Wait for clean break of RSI resistance on Daily and then buy against swing low.
For those interested in capturing bottom 1.1975 is the key point.

Would you please explain how to arrive at 1.1975?

Thanks
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