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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #318,221
  • Jul 5, 2012 5:22pm Jul 5, 2012 5:22pm
  • #318,222
  • Jul 5, 2012 6:15pm Jul 5, 2012 6:15pm
Eur/aud is my first pair that i am seeing at its all time low u live long enough u see all kindaaa thing lollllllllll
  • #318,223
  • Jul 5, 2012 6:43pm Jul 5, 2012 6:43pm
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not euphoria follower
  • #318,224
  • Jul 5, 2012 7:09pm Jul 5, 2012 7:09pm
Quoting iqyu5an
Hey dude, all these pets you have, do they ever fight when you put them all on the same screen like that?
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #318,225
  • Jul 5, 2012 7:12pm Jul 5, 2012 7:12pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
Hey dude, all these pets you have, do they ever fight when you put them all on the same screen like that?
Or do they get along in "harmony"
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #318,226
  • Jul 5, 2012 8:30pm Jul 5, 2012 8:30pm
Quoting iqyu5an

or maybe where was C?

just south of 1.55 (9 hours ago), could it have been the bottom?
Money never sleeps...
  • #318,227
  • Jul 5, 2012 9:30pm Jul 5, 2012 9:30pm
Good morning folks (here in HK 10:30AM), today's friday and market will be stressed the hell out over NFP.... with ADP yesterday showing positive numbers, NFP might turn up better than expected, and better than than previous.. if this is a case we may get RISK ON sentiment for the day and a major pull back... in fact i maybe interested to short if the pullback touches 1.56 and fails to break back above...
Besides on GBPUSD i have a pending short at 1.58 soo we shall see...
i would recommend strict cautious and tight sl if you are scalping today...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #318,228
  • Jul 5, 2012 10:37pm Jul 5, 2012 10:37pm
i have another one, seafood.
http://www.trade-forex-harmonic-patt...hark-bu-be.gif

let see how they're in nfp and unemployment rate dreamland ...

Quoting Ill-b-back
Hey dude, all these pets you have, do they ever fight when you put them all on the same screen like that?
Quoting inpatient
or maybe where was C?

just south of 1.55 (9 hours ago), could it have been the bottom?
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not euphoria follower
  • #318,229
  • Jul 5, 2012 11:49pm Jul 5, 2012 11:49pm
Morning ,limit up now 5555 & 71 , down 5484. failed daily stop at 5516 d bottom formation & so likely test failure at upper limits to down test lower limit 5454 to even 5443/38 to try again top side . that is failing further correction arround these levels but not over yet , more chances up yet possible before the final down , bear set up small to big active .
weekly still up possible.
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #318,230
  • Jul 6, 2012 12:22am Jul 6, 2012 12:22am
Quoting fontu
Morning ,limit up now 5555 & 71 , down 5484. failed daily stop at 5516 d bottom formation & so likely test failure at upper limits to down test lower limit 5454 to even 5443/38 to try again top side . that is failing further correction arround these levels but not over yet , more chances up yet possible before the final down , bear set up small to big active .
weekly still up possible.
fontu
I think we need to monitor the euro. The cable may follow the euro at a downward trend.
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"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #318,231
  • Jul 6, 2012 12:29am Jul 6, 2012 12:29am
personal feeling that this pair will spike during nfp. They didnt introduce more stimulus.
  • #318,232
  • Jul 6, 2012 12:47am Jul 6, 2012 12:47am
Quoting godim
I think we need to monitor the euro. The cable may follow the euro at a downward trend.
Ok the same there , no special advantages or confirmation yet .

upper limit 2497/2506, down 2288 , care down at 2178 next ,
fontu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #318,233
  • Jul 6, 2012 12:51am Jul 6, 2012 12:51am
Quoting sidhujag
personal feeling that this pair will spike during nfp. They didnt introduce more stimulus.
Da fuq?!?!
first of all did you mean US didnt or will not introduce more stimulus or are you talking about the UK??
UK has already increased stimulus through QE by 50 billion pound
but US is still waiting for today's NFP to decide whether QE3 is needed....

Buddy did you not see forexfactory showed an increase in UK blah blah funding facility to have INCREASED by 50BLN meaning UK has injected 50Billion Pound of Stimulus in the form of Quantitative Easing....

so they DID introduce more stimulus...
HOWEVER rumor started around Thursday that the QE might come out to be 75 billion, that wasnt the case...
Thats why yesterday... when the figure came out 50 billion, we had a pull back before the big drop, deeply expected...
if it were to be 75 billion, that thing will just drop without a pullback and we'd probably be around 1.54 by now if it really came out 75 billion....

Either Or.... Nobody should look to Long near the Bottom, with Long term Trend pointing Down, the best winning probability is to Short on Pullbacks like i did after QE announcment yesterday.... (as soon as i saw failure to break above 56 i shorted...)

Also, dont let ANYBODY tell you that QE doesnt devalue a currency.... QE literally means printing money at the expense of the Currency's strength....
thats why one would be smart to avoid LONGING anything to do with GBP when a QE announcment comes out last night....

Now now... Today.... IF NFP were to come out better than expected... the wont be need of a USD QE then this will be a risk on as Dollar doesnt need to be devalued for stimulus (i guess thats what you mean by stimulus) then we may have a risk on sentiment which would bring about a pullback in most pairs...
so i will wait for the figure to come out and see how the market reacts before i enter any trade... i advise you to do the same instead of taking any unnecessary risks
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #318,234
  • Jul 6, 2012 1:07am Jul 6, 2012 1:07am
Quoting fontu
Ok the same there , no special advantages or confirmation yet .

upper limit 2497/2506, down 2288 , care down at 2178 next ,
fontu
I think in eur/usd target is dotted blue line. It moves with 30 pips per day. The earlier we come to it, the higher will be the price.
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"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #318,235
  • Jul 6, 2012 1:09am Jul 6, 2012 1:09am
Quoting godim
I think in eur/usd target is dotted blue line. It moves with 30 pips per day. The earlier we come to it, the higher will be the price.
Thats worrying....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #318,236
  • Jul 6, 2012 1:23am Jul 6, 2012 1:23am
Quoting bguguen
Good morning folks (here in HK 10:30AM), today's friday and market will be stressed the hell out over NFP.... with ADP yesterday showing positive numbers, NFP might turn up better than expected, and better than than previous.. if this is a case we may get RISK ON sentiment for the day and a major pull back... in fact i maybe interested to short if the pullback touches 1.56 and fails to break back above...
Besides on GBPUSD i have a pending short at 1.58 soo we shall see...
i would recommend strict cautious and tight sl if you are scalping...
hello,
interesting point. i remember an old friend doing every NFP a comparison with ADP numbers. but i don't remember if this was ok or not....
anyway, connecting data with possible QE from the FED, i think that a bad employment report, could be considered by market as another reason for FED to start soon another QE. So meaning bad numbers, dollar down. Whil good numbers could be US dollar bullish since UK more QE, ECB cut rates etc...
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #318,237
  • Edited 1:45am Jul 6, 2012 1:35am | Edited 1:45am
Quoting _BBKing_
hello,
interesting point. i remember an old friend doing every NFP a comparison with ADP numbers. but i don't remember if this was ok or not....
anyway, connecting data with possible QE from the FED, i think that a bad employment report, could be considered by market as another reason for FED to start soon another QE. So meaning bad numbers, dollar down. Whil good numbers could be US dollar bullish since UK more QE, ECB cut rates etc...
Strangely enough the US form of QE doesnt really relate to a Dollar strength or a dollar weakness... i read an article where US who initiated the first QE the dollar actually strengthened as opposed to the book standard of currency being weakened....
now about NFP... it seems like the market is looking to the NFP as an indicator for Risk-on or risk off regardless of QE3....
IF NFP comes out Green or better than expected... People see this as a risk on as US economy improves, QE3 is not needed and investors under impression that QE devalues currency would be happy to see that theres no threat of currency being devalued so they are likely to invest in something....
but if NFP comes out worst that expected.... the world see this as a negative signal..... because we all know how the world looks to US as their medium of trade... if US economy fucks up, everyone will run to the Reserves....
sooo
if we want EURO and GBP to go up.... US better churn up a green number for NFP....

Lately its more to do with Global Economy and Risk Sentiments on NFP...
Green NFP suggests risk on meaning Bullish Everything, Bearish Dollar... as people are taking money out of the US reserves into US Dollar then from US Dollar turning to RISK pairs like Euro, GBP, AUD, NZD... etc etc...
But if Red NFP comes up, people from these RISK currencies will quickly turn their currency back ot US, then into the dollar reserves, that Demand for dollar would mean.... Bearish Everything, Bullish Dollar....

Oh btw another indicator to see if Risk is on or off.... if Dollar is Bullish but yet Gold is also going up against dollar....
meaning... EURUSD down, but XAUUSD up... that means Risk is OFF

Im just saying this out of my observation for the last couple NFP releases this year... but god knows what NFP really implies.... it seems as though NFP implications changes time and time again.... but with the European crisis still at hand... im gona bet Green NFP brings Risk On, while Red NFP brings Risk off....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #318,238
  • Jul 6, 2012 1:51am Jul 6, 2012 1:51am
looking at recent data releases in chart below, i think that a release above 115K would change this recent "downtrend" in numbers.
about employm rate, also VERY IMPORTANT, would be good for USA to see it coming below 8% while recently still back to 8.2%

@bguguen: damn risk on - risk off the day i will understand what causes one or the other, i will become billionaire
everytime i thought something, market did the opposite.
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90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
  • #318,239
  • Jul 6, 2012 2:01am Jul 6, 2012 2:01am
Quoting _BBKing_
looking at recent data releases in chart below, i think that a release above 115K would change this recent "downtrend" in numbers.
about employm rate, also VERY IMPORTANT, would be good for USA to see it coming below 8% while recently still back to 8.2%

@bguguen: damn risk on - risk off the day i will understand what causes one or the other, i will become billionaire
everytime i thought something, market did the opposite.
what dont you understand about risk on risk off?? ill see if i can help you out by simplifying it
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #318,240
  • Jul 6, 2012 2:07am Jul 6, 2012 2:07am
Quoting bguguen
what dont you understand about risk on risk off?? ill see if i can help you out by simplifying it
problem is that some times an event causes risk on. the following time, the same event, causes risk off.
maybe it is due to the complexity of factors involved so maybe it's my lack in fundamentals attitudes. seems to me a kind of monster used by market to give reasons for a direction instead of another.

in recent months:
good data risk on.
bad data risk off.
then....
good data risk off
bad data risk on.
wtf

anyway GU price is printing a perfect downtrend in hourly charts.
unless we see today straight above 5640 (hard work), better respect the trend.....
supply should come between 5550-5570.
demand? 5480-90 again? we will see in few minutes if hold or not
90% of traders use TA, indicators and prediction
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