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EUR/CHF

  • #8,461
  • Jul 5, 2012 4:48am Jul 5, 2012 4:48am
Quoting eqshack
no idea yet.Lets see if it goes there..Holding pretty big lot from 1.2012 TP 1.2060 if we see spike
DAILY MACD is bullish now.. last time it happened it hit 1.2140


not like we goin to get 130-40 spike.. cuz eur is weak as hell right now but 1.2030-60 is good enough
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #8,462
  • Jul 5, 2012 6:17am Jul 5, 2012 6:17am
Quoting eqshack
DAILY MACD is bullish now.. last time it happened it hit 1.2140


not like we goin to get 130-40 spike.. cuz eur is weak as hell right now but 1.2030-60 is good enough

let's see what happens with ECB rate in 30 minutes
if it remains unchanged, maybe we'll see another little spike...
otherwise... maybe a floor test?
  • #8,463
  • Jul 5, 2012 7:10am Jul 5, 2012 7:10am
Today was good for scalping with that spike...I was out at 1.20160 and now reloaded again at 1.20110... higher pressure on the floor now due rate decision - EUR losing ground to USD.
My market maker said that SNB set the "floor" to 1.20100 since 2 weeks ago..they are starting to defend big around this value.
Let's see what SNB will decide...we will see starting from the next week how our swap rates will be affected. --- http://www.ecb.int/press/pr/date/201...120705.en.html
Speculation converts one man's capital into another man's income
  • #8,464
  • Jul 5, 2012 7:23am Jul 5, 2012 7:23am
Quoting cipid2012
Today was good for scalping with that spike...I was out at 1.20160 and now reloaded again at 1.20110... higher pressure on the floor now due rate decision - EUR losing ground to USD.
My market maker said that SNB set the "floor" to 1.20100 since 2 weeks ago..they are starting to defend big around this value.
Let's see what SNB will decide...we will see starting from the next week how our swap rates will be affected. --- http://www.ecb.int/press/pr/date/201...120705.en.html
and now bullish
Speculation converts one man's capital into another man's income
  • #8,465
  • Jul 5, 2012 7:38am Jul 5, 2012 7:38am
Quoting cipid2012
Today was good for scalping with that spike...I was out at 1.20160 and now reloaded again at 1.20110... higher pressure on the floor now due rate decision - EUR losing ground to USD.
My market maker said that SNB set the "floor" to 1.20100 since 2 weeks ago..they are starting to defend big around this value.
Let's see what SNB will decide...we will see starting from the next week how our swap rates will be affected. --- http://www.ecb.int/press/pr/date/201...120705.en.html

so you think there will be no change in swaps this week?
when is the rate cut going to be applied?
  • #8,466
  • Jul 5, 2012 7:38am Jul 5, 2012 7:38am
Quoting rcrist
so you think there will be no change in swaps this week?
when is the rate cut going to be applied?

sorry, I read from your link - July 11th . Thanks.
  • #8,467
  • Jul 5, 2012 8:25am Jul 5, 2012 8:25am
Danish CB pres said if ECB cut they will follow that to reduce pressure on keeping DKK peg range+reduce safe haven inflow of capital...

Maybe we'll see some activity from the SNB professors too...com' on guys lets cut
  • #8,468
  • Jul 5, 2012 8:30am Jul 5, 2012 8:30am
Quoting rcrist
let's see what happens with ECB rate in 30 minutes
if it remains unchanged, maybe we'll see another little spike...
otherwise... maybe a floor test?
Rollovers are based on swap market right? That had already priced in the cut, also if we do the math, 0,75% is still some positive amount even more than the +swap brokers give currently. Maybe no change for rollover, lets see
  • #8,469
  • Jul 5, 2012 8:43am Jul 5, 2012 8:43am
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - TD Securities analysts expect the EUR/CHF to be stuck at 1.20, while the markets pressure the SNB by recurring to the CHF as safe haven from the ongoing Eurozone headwinds: “Ongoing Eurozone headwinds should continue to support strong safe-haven demand for the CHF in the coming months, while domestic data has not yet deteriorated enough to warrant further action by the SNB”, wrote the economists, expecting progressively higher rates as time goes by, closing 2012 at 1.2200. The forecast points to 1.2500 in Q1 2013 and 1.3000 by the end of that year.
  • #8,470
  • Jul 5, 2012 8:55am Jul 5, 2012 8:55am
Quoting pipxster
Danish CB pres said if ECB cut they will follow that to reduce pressure on keeping DKK peg range+reduce safe haven inflow of capital...

Maybe we'll see some activity from the SNB professors too...com' on guys lets cut

Is there anything left to cut on CHF rate? I thought it is 0 already.
  • #8,471
  • Jul 5, 2012 9:03am Jul 5, 2012 9:03am
Denmark's central bank cuts discount rate to 0% from 0.25%, certificate of deposit rate now -0.2%.Denmark Central Bank Deposit Rate Negative For First Time
  • #8,472
  • Jul 5, 2012 9:06am Jul 5, 2012 9:06am
SNB will be forced to act soon like Denmark
  • #8,473
  • Jul 5, 2012 9:16am Jul 5, 2012 9:16am
The euro moves back into positive territory against the Danish krone after the Danish central bank cut its bank deposit rate to negative yields for the first time. The central bank cut the deposit rate to -0.2% from 0.05%. It also cut its lending rate to 0.2% from 0.45%. The euro is at DKK7.4383 from DKK7.4364 just before the national bank's announcement, according to CQG. The dollar is up nearly 1.3% vs the krone on the day.
  • #8,474
  • Jul 5, 2012 9:55am Jul 5, 2012 9:55am
Quoting pipxster
Rollovers are based on swap market right? That had already priced in the cut, also if we do the math, 0,75% is still some positive amount even more than the +swap brokers give currently. Maybe no change for rollover, lets see

Depends on the broker. But swaps will be reduced for sure
  • #8,475
  • Jul 5, 2012 12:22pm Jul 5, 2012 12:22pm
How is it possible that SNB maintains EURCHF 1,2010 in the midst on such EUR weakness? Its seems like EURCHF should be at, say, 0,8000 without that assistance.

What if they realize that they cannot cope with that spread between real life and artificial one anymore? Will it collapse as in 1st half of 2010 when they stopped defending 1,5000 and it came down almost straight 2000 pips in 6 months (or let's say 5000 pips in 18 months)?

Puzzles me.
  • #8,476
  • Jul 5, 2012 1:09pm Jul 5, 2012 1:09pm
Quoting Spik
How is it possible that SNB maintains EURCHF 1,2010 in the midst on such EUR weakness? Its seems like EURCHF should be at, say, 0,8000 without that assistance.

What if they realize that they cannot cope with that spread between real life and artificial one anymore? Will it collapse as in 1st half of 2010 when they stopped defending 1,5000 and it came down almost straight 2000 pips in 6 months (or let's say 5000 pips in 18 months)?

Puzzles me.
It is in their interest to defend its currency from appretiation... If you're going short this pair you should think about it twice The only way for this pair is up, up and up... I say there will be announcement on friday 13. for introducing negative interest rates for deposits...
  • #8,477
  • Jul 5, 2012 1:35pm Jul 5, 2012 1:35pm
Quoting druckerei
It is in their interest to defend its currency from appretiation... If you're going short this pair you should think about it twice The only way for this pair is up, up and up... I say there will be announcement on friday 13. for introducing negative interest rates for deposits...
On friday 13? how do you know?
  • #8,478
  • Jul 5, 2012 3:07pm Jul 5, 2012 3:07pm
Quoting druckerei
It is in their interest to defend its currency from appretiation... If you're going short this pair you should think about it twice The only way for this pair is up, up and up... I say there will be announcement on friday 13. for introducing negative interest rates for deposits...
what do you think would be the impact of a rate cut to, let's say, -0.25% or -0.50% ? or those rates even realistic?
like the idea of doing it on friday the 13. !
PS. yupp, I'm on the long side, with a lot of trust in the SNB!
  • #8,479
  • Jul 5, 2012 4:24pm Jul 5, 2012 4:24pm
90% of traders has a trust to SNB, I do as well. Jordan and all guys from SNB can not let this happen at least for the nearest 1 year it can be a disaster for Swiss economy.
So for now resolution is finding a broker with positive long swap on EURCHF and use all margin
  • #8,480
  • Jul 6, 2012 2:15am Jul 6, 2012 2:15am
all i can say is "WOW", 59 billion increase in june
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