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EUR/CHF

  • #8,401
  • Jul 1, 2012 11:31am Jul 1, 2012 11:31am
How can we get access to percentage of different currencies that the SNB is holding?
  • #8,402
  • Jul 1, 2012 11:39am Jul 1, 2012 11:39am
Quoting holmes
How can we get access to percentage of different currencies that the SNB is holding?
I guess this is what you're looking for:

http://www.snb.ch/ext/stats/balsnb/p...en_der_SNB.pdf
  • #8,403
  • Jul 1, 2012 11:46am Jul 1, 2012 11:46am
Quoting Napoleon180
I guess this is what you're looking for:

http://www.snb.ch/ext/stats/balsnb/p...en_der_SNB.pdf
Yes, thx. very helpful.
  • #8,404
  • Jul 1, 2012 2:48pm Jul 1, 2012 2:48pm
Quoting rcrist
don't worry , it will open above 1.201
Yep, first quotes at fxcm bid 1,2014, ask 1,2017.
Looks fine.
  • #8,405
  • Jul 1, 2012 5:26pm Jul 1, 2012 5:26pm
Quoting Napoleon180
Yep, first quotes at fxcm bid 1,2014, ask 1,2017.
Looks fine.
Yeah, we had a little gap and a small uptrend...
I'm glad I had positions opened Friday evening , although I usually don't open above 1.201
  • #8,406
  • Jul 1, 2012 6:45pm Jul 1, 2012 6:45pm
Quoting Napoleon180
yes, under and upper house accepted the laws for ESM etc., but there are a lots of lawsuits now against those laws (in germany) from a political party (socialists) and some other. The german supreme court has to proof the lawsuits and has to make a decision. Until than, the laws for ESM etc. will not be signed by the president.
So the outcome is unclear for now...
with this regard, I think the market is currently pricing in 95% of the chances the president will sign
  • #8,407
  • Edited 7:16pm Jul 1, 2012 6:58pm | Edited 7:16pm
according to the SSI report on FXCM, looks like there are a great deal of traders doing scalping now, and aggressively short the pair whenever the pair goes up to 1.202~1.204 and buy back in the 1.201 area. It makes me think if the market trend really shifts and as soon as we clears out the 1.202~1.204 area, the pressure moving further upward wont be as intense as few weeks before.

last Friday's spike caused:
"6% of the @Currensee community volume is trading the EURCHF with sentiment 37% SHORT"

This is a huge increase in shorts, everyone scalping now
  • #8,408
  • Jul 2, 2012 1:29am Jul 2, 2012 1:29am
EURCHF
Another spike in EUR/CHF last week after EU summit, but then the cross is back into prior tight range on 1.200/202. Outlook remains unchanged and price actions in EUR/CHF will remain consolidative. Any downside attempt should be contained by SNB's 1.2 floor.
very nice, good price..!
  • #8,409
  • Jul 2, 2012 1:55am Jul 2, 2012 1:55am
Quoting Jose Louis
EURCHF
Another spike in EUR/CHF last week after EU summit, but then the cross is back into prior tight range on 1.200/202. Outlook remains unchanged and price actions in EUR/CHF will remain consolidative. Any downside attempt should be contained by SNB's 1.2 floor.
Yep back into the range
  • #8,410
  • Jul 2, 2012 2:24am Jul 2, 2012 2:24am
Private consumption seems to be still high in CH. Retail sales +6.2 %
  • #8,411
  • Jul 2, 2012 2:34am Jul 2, 2012 2:34am
Quoting Swissie
Private consumption seems to be still high in CH. Retail sales +6.2 %
All data better than expected today back into the range for another few weeks.

Who is selling at these levels and why?

The SNB have shown there commitment to the floor and held it in very testing conditions it cant all be inflows
  • #8,412
  • Jul 2, 2012 3:51am Jul 2, 2012 3:51am
Quoting brinks
All data better than expected today back into the range for another few weeks.

Who is selling at these levels and why?

The SNB have shown there commitment to the floor and held it in very testing conditions it cant all be inflows
Could be a conclomerate of hedge funds. Can't see any other market participants having such an impact on the pair. i mean it's 1.20somewhat for months now.
  • #8,413
  • Jul 2, 2012 3:55am Jul 2, 2012 3:55am
Quoting brinks
All data better than expected today back into the range for another few weeks.

Who is selling at these levels and why?

The SNB have shown there commitment to the floor and held it in very testing conditions it cant all be inflows
Regardless of who is selling, and regardless of whether the Swiss data is good or bad, we have to recognize the fact that the majority of inflows into CHF are "real money", and this real money will leave once things in EU stablizes. We dont know when, but when the day comes, they dont care whether they have to sell CHF at 1.205, or 1.21, or 1.22, their money have to leave.
  • #8,414
  • Jul 2, 2012 3:56am Jul 2, 2012 3:56am
Last week printed 10 bln CHF, sight deposits at 310,9 bln

the pace decreased from 16 bln the week before probaly because of last weeks fundamental news.

let's see what next week's data can bring us, maybe some net offloading even (ie. the money leaves)...
  • #8,415
  • Jul 2, 2012 3:58am Jul 2, 2012 3:58am
Quoting pipxster
Last week printed 10 bln CHF, sight deposits at 310,9 bln

the pace decreased from 16 bln the week before probaly because of last weeks fundamental news.

let's see what next week can bring us, maybe some net offloading even....
Yes, let us all hope this time, this "big can" can last a bit longer....enough for the trend to shift for 2~3 months.
  • #8,416
  • Jul 2, 2012 4:12am Jul 2, 2012 4:12am
Hello guys.

Any of you have any idea or red something about what George Soros thinks about EUR/CHF future ?
  • #8,417
  • Jul 2, 2012 4:21am Jul 2, 2012 4:21am
Quoting tim10167
Yes, let us all hope this time, this "big can" can last a bit longer....enough for the trend to shift for 2~3 months.
What do u believe guys? that the 1.2 peg will break?????
to me it is impossible. From this month full implementation of Bessel 3 has been done in Swiss banking system to reduce impact of high balance sheet but this will reduce GDP for sure, the retail sales was high which shows overvaluation of CHF and just a glance at data before last year monetary policy and comparing the economic data shows that the SNB must act to support export and unemployment rate or in one word economy contraction, therefor I believe moving the peg to at least 1.25 is on the way.
  • #8,418
  • Jul 2, 2012 4:34am Jul 2, 2012 4:34am
Quoting holmes
What do u believe guys? that the 1.2 peg will break?????
to me it is impossible. From this month full implementation of Bessel 3 has been done in Swiss banking system to reduce impact of high balance sheet but this will reduce GDP for sure, the retail sales was high which shows overvaluation of CHF and just a glance at data before last year monetary policy and comparing the economic data shows that the SNB must act to support export and unemployment rate or in one word economy contraction, therefor I believe moving the peg to at least 1.25 is on...
Dont think the floor will break, I've meant that the printing speed reduced and hopefully will reverse to offloading reserves soon. Raising the floor I think it's still far as econ data still quite satisfactory (retail you're right it supports long, but GDP, Trade Balance, Employment was better than I expected so our dear conservative professor Mr. Jordan is probably relaxing on a yacht while watching closely but not too closely). I think 1,25 floor is far and need worse data, rather I expect an outflow start, risk on, so that SNB can offload reserves and then we can go up "naturally". Of course I would be very happy with a new floor at 1,25 like alexcee.
  • #8,419
  • Jul 2, 2012 4:46am Jul 2, 2012 4:46am
Quoting pipxster
Dont think the floor will break, I've meant that the printing speed reduced and hopefully will reverse to offloading reserves soon. Raising the floor I think it's still far as econ data still quite satisfactory (retail you're right it supports long, but GDP, Trade Balance, Employment was better than I expected so our dear conservative professor Mr. Jordan is probably relaxing on a yacht while watching closely but not too closely). I think 1,25 floor is far and need worse data, rather I expect an outflow start, risk on, so that SNB can offload reserves...
Last year unemployment rate before introducing the peg was 3.0 pct but now 3.2, GDP was 0.4 pct and we will see the soaring this coming data according to EU recession and Trade balance was 2.83B but now 2.48B, in addition, SVME PMI was over 50, 53 to be exact, but now less than 50. In addition EURO is going to gain, this is what Jordan believed even before EU summit, You know his post doctrine thesis was on EURO and he knows it well, so there will be no need to get rid of sth which is gaining.
  • #8,420
  • Jul 2, 2012 5:18am Jul 2, 2012 5:18am
Quoting holmes
Last year unemployment rate before introducing the peg was 3.0 pct but now 3.2, GDP was 0.4 pct and we will see the soaring this coming data according to EU recession and Trade balance was 2.83B but now 2.48B, in addition, SVME PMI was over 50, 53 to be exact, but now less than 50. In addition EURO is going to gain, this is what Jordan believed even before EU summit, You know his post doctrine thesis was on EURO and he knows it well, so there will be no need to get rid of sth which is gaining.
and not to forget the CPI, yeah well datas were deteriorating but according to the current market consensus is that current snb staff is too conservative to introduce any other measures unless there's a severe problem and these datas are not that catergory,

well of course they might suprise us
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