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EUR/CHF

  • #8,381
  • Jul 1, 2012 12:45am Jul 1, 2012 12:45am
Quoting rcrist
don't worry , it will open above 1.201
Agreed XE always shows eur/chf price below the 1.20 floor before market open
But it always opens near its Friday close
  • #8,382
  • Jul 1, 2012 1:53am Jul 1, 2012 1:53am
tim10167

I offloaded all my positions at 1.20300 on friday and reloaded again near current price.

I will add a few more on any little move down

How about you? whats your position?

Infact whats everyones position on this pair?
  • #8,383
  • Jul 1, 2012 2:08am Jul 1, 2012 2:08am
Quoting brinks
tim10167

I offloaded all my positions at 1.20300 on friday and reloaded again near current price.

I will add a few more on any little move down

How about you? whats your position?

Infact whats everyones position on this pair?

I'm holding 1 lot at 1.20033...
  • #8,384
  • Jul 1, 2012 2:11am Jul 1, 2012 2:11am
Quoting multi888
I'm holding 1 lot at 1.20033...
Whats your target?

Holding long term i take it?
  • #8,385
  • Jul 1, 2012 3:56am Jul 1, 2012 3:56am
Quoting brinks
Whats your target?

Holding long term i take it?

Yap....holding looooooong term, looking at only 1.22 will do.
  • #8,386
  • Jul 1, 2012 5:18am Jul 1, 2012 5:18am
Quoting brinks
tim10167

I offloaded all my positions at 1.20300 on friday and reloaded again near current price.

I will add a few more on any little move down

How about you? whats your position?

Infact whats everyones position on this pair?

yah, scalping part reload, I kept a portion for longer terms just in cast anything happens.
  • #8,387
  • Jul 1, 2012 5:22am Jul 1, 2012 5:22am
Quoting Napoleon180
My broker just changed the rolls for EUR/CHF few minutes ago, roll for buy positions got more than tripled now, from 0,3 euro per lot to 1 Euro! Niiiice =)
I know Napoleon uses FXCM, me too, good news.

Just wonder how about other brokers? Anyone with other brokers got an increase in rolls as well? Its a very positive sign for us longs.
  • #8,388
  • Jul 1, 2012 5:45am Jul 1, 2012 5:45am
Merkel lost the battle, Germany's debt/GDP ratio will increase and thus will affect its Bund yield to increase too, SNB has becomming one of the largest holder of German Bunds for the past two months. Wonder what will SNB do?
  • #8,389
  • Jul 1, 2012 5:52am Jul 1, 2012 5:52am
Quoting tim10167
I know Napoleon uses FXCM, me too, good news.

Just wonder how about other brokers? Anyone with other brokers got an increase in rolls as well? Its a very positive sign for us longs.
My account that was negative swap has turned positive but still large margin requirement
  • #8,390
  • Jul 1, 2012 6:02am Jul 1, 2012 6:02am
Have to say that Germany accepts ESM injects directly into banks instead of going through Goverments which will propt up their debt/GDP ratio is really a big change. It still has various uncleared conditions so this is not the end game. But it is certainly a "big" can down the road. Hopfully this short term risk-on momentum can last a bit longer for us to make some profit. If this risk on trend last a bit longer I think many shorts will get scared away.
  • #8,391
  • Jul 1, 2012 6:08am Jul 1, 2012 6:08am
ZURICH, July 1 (Reuters) - The Swiss National Bank is prepared to defend its cap on the franc with the utmost determination and there is no alternative to the policy in the foreseeable future, the head of the central bank said in an interview published on Sunday. To shield the economy from the threat of deflation and recession, the bank set a cap of 1.20 francs to the euro last September after investors fleeing turmoil in the euro zone pushed the safe-haven franc close to parity against the common currency. "We are enforcing the mininum exchange rate with determination, because this is the correct monetary policy," Swiss National Bank President Thomas Jordan told the Sonntagsblick newspaper. "The franc is still a very overvalued currency." His comments echoed those of Vice Chairman Jean-Pierre Danthine, who said last week that the minimum exchange rate was the best strategy for managing the economy. Jordan said the central bank experienced upward pressure on the franc at the start of May when the euro zone crisis escalated but said the bank was able to absorb this. "The increase in the balance sheet is only one consequence of monetary policy. The risks associated with it are considered acceptable. The central bank can bear them," he said. The central bank's foreign exchange reserves jumped by 28 percent in May as the bank sold the franc. Data due this week will show whether it had to maintain large interventions in June. Losses due to big interventions in 2010 prompted calls from one right wing party for the then head of the central bank to step down, but Jordan said the franc cap now had broad backing. "For the foreseeable future there is no alternative to the minimum exchange rate," he said. Jordan said the market had overreacted to the central bank's recent call for Credit Suisse to increase its capital base, which sent the bank's shares down 10 percent, but he reiterated the need for urgent action. "In view of the risks on the financial markets, it would be better to act more quickly," he said. (Reporting by Caroline Copley; Editing by Matthew Tostevin) 2012-07-01 10:46:05
  • #8,392
  • Jul 1, 2012 6:29am Jul 1, 2012 6:29am
With all these EU mess, I am a strong advocate of letting nations go bankrupt, taking the pain now will be better than taking the pain after a few years time with more debts. With all these austrity going, the overall EU debt is still growing. Politicians want more growth, but where can "real organic"(without deficit spending) growth came from when Europe losts its competitiveness?(accept Germany). Wages in China are only 1/10 of Europe and its got all the state of the art factories there. With all these hopeless politicians, SNB's peg will eventually break down after a few years.
  • #8,393
  • Jul 1, 2012 6:41am Jul 1, 2012 6:41am
Quoting tim10167
WOW!!!, I see a changing tone......

----- "it would be better to act more quickly"-----

It is a very very tricky timming for Jordan to say this right after a very positive Euro summit. What is SNB thinking????

Looks like I have to stick to my plan on keeping a portion of position for longer terms.....
I don't think he was talking about the peg he was talking about credit Suisse increasing there capital base and they should act quicker.

That's how I read it I may be wrong though
  • #8,394
  • Jul 1, 2012 7:04am Jul 1, 2012 7:04am
Quoting brinks
I don't think he was talking about the peg he was talking about credit Suisse increasing there capital base and they should act quicker.

That's how I read it I may be wrong though
Yes, I misread
  • #8,395
  • Jul 1, 2012 7:12am Jul 1, 2012 7:12am
Quoting daka
ZURICH, July 1 (Reuters) - The Swiss National Bank is prepared to defend its cap on the franc with the utmost determination and there is no alternative to the policy in the foreseeable future, the head of the central bank said in an interview published on Sunday. To shield the economy from the threat of deflation and recession, the bank set a cap of 1.20 francs to the euro last September after investors fleeing turmoil in the euro zone pushed the safe-haven franc close to parity against the common currency. "We are enforcing the mininum exchange...

so, Jordan still has no change in his tone....
  • #8,396
  • Jul 1, 2012 7:36am Jul 1, 2012 7:36am
Quoting tim10167
so, Jordan still has no change in his tone....
No real change no.

And what happens this week if the ECB cut interest rates?
  • #8,397
  • Jul 1, 2012 8:06am Jul 1, 2012 8:06am
Quoting brinks
No real change no.

And what happens this week if the ECB cut interest rates?
market is pricing in a rate cut, but the EU inflation data came out late last week was a bit high, so, now, I think the chance is 60% cut, 40% hold....
  • #8,398
  • Edited 8:34am Jul 1, 2012 8:21am | Edited 8:34am
Quoting daka
ZURICH, July 1 (Reuters) - The Swiss National Bank is prepared to defend its cap on the franc with the utmost determination and there is no alternative to the policy in the foreseeable future, the head of the central bank said in an interview published on Sunday. To shield the economy from the threat of deflation and recession, the bank set a cap of 1.20 francs to the euro last September after investors fleeing turmoil in the euro zone pushed the safe-haven franc close to parity against the common currency. "We are enforcing the mininum exchange...

I think all these stories about SNB urges Swiss banks to increase its capital base has another story behind the scene. SNB "always" and "only" says the request is because the economy is heading south, but I also see SNB is afraid of inflation in the medium term as during the past two months, SNB has created massive amount of CHF money base for its banks as a result of intervention. SNB is clearly afraid and very uncomfortable if these money go into the real economy. So I think what SNB is really doing is trying to limit the gigantic increase of CHF money base into the real economy by asking the banks to increase their capital base. This is why I conclude SNB does not have the ability to print "unlimited" CHF, there is a limit.
  • #8,399
  • Jul 1, 2012 8:47am Jul 1, 2012 8:47am
"Pimco Sees German Bonds Losing Safe Haven Status"

Getting harder for SNB to diversify its EUROS......
  • #8,400
  • Jul 1, 2012 11:19am Jul 1, 2012 11:19am
Quoting tim10167
Have to say that Germany accepts ESM injects directly into banks instead of going through Goverments which will propt up their debt/GDP ratio is really a big change. It still has various uncleared conditions so this is not the end game. But it is certainly a "big" can down the road. Hopfully this short term risk-on momentum can last a bit longer for us to make some profit. If this risk on trend last a bit longer I think many shorts will get scared away.
yes, under and upper house accepted the laws for ESM etc., but there are a lots of lawsuits now against those laws (in germany) from a political party (socialists) and some other. The german supreme court has to proof the lawsuits and has to make a decision. Until than, the laws for ESM etc. will not be signed by the president.
So the outcome is unclear for now...
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