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  • #663,521
  • Jun 29, 2012 1:23pm Jun 29, 2012 1:23pm
Quoting Davit
just be careful about breakouts.I try to figure out overall direction and try to sell or buy but don't do both.
If you get caught in breakout at least you will be in the right direction.Right now its kind of uncetrain direction.Friday week ending.Wait for Monday to get a better feel.
Yes, I'm positioned in cash over the weekend as I recognized I don't know how to trade this. I'll think about TF switches and money management and in the odd case I find something worth while I'll report back. There's obviously a lot more to trading then I've imagined before and I find the EURUSD pair to be the most exciting pair to live and learn. She's a truly wicked bitch
  • #663,522
  • Jun 29, 2012 1:31pm Jun 29, 2012 1:31pm
Quoting DrTuner
I'm a bit wary of hedges as the largest loss I've ever made was in a vain attempt of trying to cover the fact I already screwed up. A painful memory. I'd appreciate a pointer on how to apply one and more to the point, when ?

Your point on news I fully understand. Burnt my fingers there as well, learned a few lessons.
Some tips for start:
- open only 1 position;
- don't average;
- use very low risk;
- limit the risk in 30 pips each time;
- trade the market not the orders:
supposed you have 2 positions, buy(-100) and sell(+70), and you think it will drop more. you can close the buy even with loss, and if you are right, with 30 pips you are on breakeven.

It's just an example...

Best regards,
Pico.
  • #663,523
  • Edited 1:50pm Jun 29, 2012 1:32pm | Edited 1:50pm
Quoting DrTuner
I'm a bit wary of hedges as the largest loss I've ever made was in a vain attempt of trying to cover the fact I already screwed up. A painful memory. I'd appreciate a pointer on how to apply one and more to the point, when ?

Your point on news I fully understand. Burnt my fingers there as well, learned a few lessons.
I made a killing after a failed attempt to short euro today and it was all because of hedging.

I originally put limit sell on 1.24500 because of that descending triangle which I thought it wouldn't break out of. Then I had a stop loss @ 1.24550 and a buy stop @ 1.24600. So even though I got it wrong and noobed it on the sell limit, when it broke past my limit it hit my buy stop which pretty much caught the entire move.

Unfortunately I was also short eur/jpy at the same time, I didn't put the hedging set up like on the eur/usd and even forgot to do a stop loss. So i ate like -120 pips before I manually closed it. The lesson for me here is ALWAYS PUT A STOP LOSS.

Anyway that's my way of doing hedging. There's other ways like using options, buying and sell currencies that are inversely correlated, carry trade hedging, etc. But I don't use those so I can't comment.
  • #663,524
  • Jun 29, 2012 1:35pm Jun 29, 2012 1:35pm
Quoting pico_zeh
You can use hedge to limit the risk and also earn on both sides. You need to practice it, like a process of learning anything. About news, remember to don't associate the results with market moves, any positive or negative data can trigger up or down move. Try to observe the moves just before and after the news, you may realize that they mainly create sentiment and act against it...

Best regards,
Pico.
demo to learn and develop a new trading method
  • #663,525
  • Jun 29, 2012 1:36pm Jun 29, 2012 1:36pm
Quoting DrTuner
Yes, I'm positioned in cash over the weekend as I recognized I don't know how to trade this. I'll think about TF switches and money management and in the odd case I find something worth while I'll report back. There's obviously a lot more to trading then I've imagined before and I find the EURUSD pair to be the most exciting pair to live and learn. She's a truly wicked bitch
One valuable advise.Reduce your lot size.If 1 dollar go with 50c. It will allow you to stress less and relax and wait to profit.When you go 1 or 2 or higher if the trade monetarily spikes one tends to panic and close position with a heafty loss only to see it come down.With 50c your losses will become smaller and winners larger.In the long run your account will last longer which will allow you to get better at this.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #663,526
  • Jun 29, 2012 1:36pm Jun 29, 2012 1:36pm
Quoting todstars2
I think it is a good place here to look for a short entry.

near the top of the range on the weekly

monthly continues to show a long term downtrend remains in effect.
Why not short in Monday opening?
  • #663,527
  • Jun 29, 2012 1:41pm Jun 29, 2012 1:41pm
Quoting pico_zeh
Some tips for start:
- open only 1 position;
- don't average;
- use very low risk;
- limit the risk in 30 pips each time;
- trade the market not the orders:
supposed you have 2 positions, buy(-100) and sell(+70), and you think it will drop more. you can close the buy even with loss, and if you are right, with 30 pips you are on breakeven.

It's just an example...

Best regards,
Pico.
I used to use this method of hedging before (having both buy and sell orders at once) to manage my account when I was near margin call. But its actually really hard to know when the positions are going to reverse exactly so I ended up losing even more than when I don't do hedging. Now I just use smaller position sizes instead.

I've seen grid eas that perform this function (taking hedges to manage drawdown) quite well though, better than me at least.
  • #663,528
  • Jun 29, 2012 1:43pm Jun 29, 2012 1:43pm
Thank you all. I'm getting some freaky ideas on hedging now and I'll need to burn a few demo accounts to learn the dynamics. Definately something there, though. Have to go offline for Zzzs, good weekend to ya'll!
  • #663,529
  • Jun 29, 2012 1:49pm Jun 29, 2012 1:49pm
Quoting enterfx
Lets see what 2715/25 will do if we get there. It's starting to get pretty overbought on H4/h1. With proper divergence I will short from there for at least a decent pullback.


Attachment
Likely another push up in the works. Hidden divergence building on M15/M30. Perhaps a gap up on Sunday, before resumption of the downward trend.
  • #663,530
  • Jun 29, 2012 2:13pm Jun 29, 2012 2:13pm
Looks slow. The pair to have played today is AUD/USD
  • #663,531
  • Jun 29, 2012 2:21pm Jun 29, 2012 2:21pm
Closed my short for a little gain. Finita la commedia.
  • #663,532
  • Jun 29, 2012 2:42pm Jun 29, 2012 2:42pm
German parliament passed ESM.
  • #663,533
  • Jun 29, 2012 2:52pm Jun 29, 2012 2:52pm
Quoting pico_zeh
Some tips for start:
- open only 1 position;
- don't average;
- use very low risk;
- limit the risk in 30 pips each time;
- trade the market not the orders:
supposed you have 2 positions, buy(-100) and sell(+70), and you think it will drop more. you can close the buy even with loss, and if you are right, with 30 pips you are on breakeven.

It's just an example...

Best regards,
Pico.
I am not a good trader, i am trying to be a good one. let me ask something .

Sometimes i have similar situations ( buy and sell and the same time). Both positions may become with profit, one in the short term, one in the long term. I have experienced many times, and the ratio of profitable positions to losing ones are higher in the long term. Sometimes i close a position after 30 days. Is that wrong?

Aweer
No pain no gain
  • #663,534
  • Jun 29, 2012 2:59pm Jun 29, 2012 2:59pm
Quoting Pipsquek
Euro going down
based on?
No pain no gain
  • #663,535
  • Jun 29, 2012 2:59pm Jun 29, 2012 2:59pm
Quoting pip_trader
Looks slow. The pair to have played today is AUD/USD

Ya I agree, Im short also on aud/jpy....hopefully that plays out well come sunday.

Euro, gonna fall next week, and when it does, its gonna fall hard.
  • #663,536
  • Jun 29, 2012 3:12pm Jun 29, 2012 3:12pm
Quoting aweer
I am not a good trader, i am trying to be a good one. let me ask something .

Sometimes i have similar situations ( buy and sell and the same time). Both positions may become with profit, one in the short term, one in the long term. I have experienced many times, and the ratio of profitable positions to losing ones are higher in the long term. Sometimes i close a position after 30 days. Is that wrong?

Aweer
From my advice. Don't ever do that! you are not a hedge fund manager, stop doing that, too many open positions will only make you confused, longer period u will lose money and lose focus.

Hedging is a system is a formulae, involves alot of calculation and experience and there are so many system of it.

if you buy and sell how would you know by when should you take profits? for each order. everyday's market is different and nothing is predictable in the forex market. some avg days we see 80-120 pip range on eur/usd.

what if for example, u entered a buy sell @ 1.2450 yesterday. And u had your take profits buy @ 100 pips away. But market go crazy for u, it went to 1.2600 at first. u take profit buy at 1.2570, thinking it will retrace and u turn for u. But in fact it spike higher into 1.2690, can u hold the pressure of holding - 250 pips? in your sell position? what about its leverage and sizing?

Your next entry probably will make you more confuse to buy or to sell. This is worst than gambling on forex. Gamble a north or south simply use a 1:2 or 1:1.5 RR, 100 pips for 150-200 pips, may actually help u to survive better at forex.

Go search online for whatever trading plans and system available, and think for yourself what u think suits you best. Trading is an art, its very personal, not all system suits everyone. Their own psychology, patience, emotions, experience and personality.

I give you an example of how hedging at played.

bank entered a sell position @ 1.2740, market dived into 1.2560 zone. Bank moves stop loss to breakeven @ 1.2740.

Market dived into 1.2480, bank moves stop loss to breakeven + take profit level 1 @ 1.2626.

Market revolves around 1.2400-1.2520.

Bank entered a buy position at 1.2420. Market spiked to 1.2620.

Bank move buy position to 1.2420 breakeven.

Market eaten bank's position of sell @ 1.2626. Bank move buy position of 1.2420 to BE + take profit level 1 @ 1.2520.

This is just what i know, that's all. maybe this give u a better idea of how to hedge.

There is a market U-Turn technique on intraday basis, but i won't share here.
  • #663,537
  • Jun 29, 2012 3:13pm Jun 29, 2012 3:13pm
are you lot still trading?!

It's weekend for pete's sake
And don't expect much movement now anyway...
  • #663,538
  • Jun 29, 2012 3:27pm Jun 29, 2012 3:27pm
Boring times, but I'm watching to see if there's any explosive moves I can catch just before the close.
  • #663,539
  • Jun 29, 2012 3:30pm Jun 29, 2012 3:30pm
Quoting aweer
I am not a good trader, i am trying to be a good one. let me ask something .

Sometimes i have similar situations ( buy and sell and the same time). Both positions may become with profit, one in the short term, one in the long term. I have experienced many times, and the ratio of profitable positions to losing ones are higher in the long term. Sometimes i close a position after 30 days. Is that wrong?

Aweer
Dear Aweer,

The objective of hedge is limit the risk if the trading is not going good. This way you gain time and a chance to recover it with a few loss, neither or a profit. When the trading become profitable, there is no point in using hedge, so you use stop and try maximize the profit. It's important to never let a open order without a pending hedge or a stop to limit the risk. You also need to trail the pending hedge when the move is going in your favor.

Best regards,
Pico.
  • #663,540
  • Jun 29, 2012 3:48pm Jun 29, 2012 3:48pm
Have also closed out all shorts for 20 pips. Should stay above 23% retrace of the whole move up for continue up on moondog. Or cross up 2700 and pull back for re test then continue. 18.2% gain on my account this week. Catching up on sleep and fun over the weekend. Hope uz all made a packet or kept to your MM to minimize the losses. Have a a good Saturnday / Sunday.
Founder of Sutherland Wave Principle
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